來自中國和美國的宏觀經濟震顫將比特幣（BTC）放在了聚光燈下

從2024年到2025年，宏觀經濟因素和力對比特幣的影響已升級

Macroeconomic tremors from China and the US have put Bitcoin (BTC) in the spotlight, offering fertile ground for its narrative as a hedge against traditional finance (TradFi) instability.

來自中國和美國的宏觀經濟震顫將比特幣（BTC）置於聚光燈下，為敘事提供了肥沃的基礎，作為對沖傳統金融（Tradfi）不穩定的對沖。

The influence of macroeconomic factors and forces on Bitcoin has escalated from 2024 to 2025, after a period when it dissipated in 2023.

宏觀經濟因素和力對比特幣的影響已在2023年消散的一段時間後從2024年到2025年升級。

Bitcoin Gains from China’s Rate Cut and US Credit Downgrade

比特幣從中國的降低和美國信貸降級中獲取

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut its benchmark lending rates for the first time in seven months. Specifically, it lowered the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.10% to 3.00% and the 5-year LPR from 3.60% to 3.50%.

週二，中國人民銀行（PBOC）在七個月內首次降低了其基準貸款率。具體而言，它將1年的貸款優質利率（LPR）從3.10％降低到3.00％，而5年LPR從3.60％降低至3.50％。

The move injects fresh liquidity into global markets. It aims to stimulate a sluggish economy weighed down by weak domestic demand and bolster a shaky property sector, all amid recent trade tensions with the US.

此舉向全球市場注入新的流動性。它的目的是刺激疲軟的國內需求鎮壓經濟，並加強了一個搖搖欲墜的房地產部門，這一切都在最近與美國的貿易緊張局勢中。

“The PBOC cut … to support the economy amid slowing growth and US trade pressures. Essentially, this injects additional momentum into risk assets by providing cheaper liquidity and fostering a risk-on sentiment,” explained on-chain and macro researcher Axel Adler Jr.

“削減PBOC……在增長放緩和美國貿易壓力下，為了支持經濟。從本質上講，這通過提供更便宜的流動性並促進風險情緒來注入風險資產的額外勢頭。”

While China’s easing measures aim to boost local borrowing and spending, they may also spill over into global asset markets, including crypto.

儘管中國採取的輕鬆措施旨在提高當地借貸和支出，但它們也可能溢出到包括加密在內的全球資產市場。

Often viewed as a high-beta asset, Bitcoin typically benefits from such liquidity tailwinds. This is especially true when coupled with fiat weakening or broader economic instability.

比特幣通常被視為高β資產，通常從這種流動性尾風中受益。當結合法定弱化或更廣泛的經濟不穩定時，尤其如此。

Simultaneously, the US faces its own credibility crisis. Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1. It cited persistent fiscal deficits, ballooning interest expenses, and a projected federal debt burden of 134% of GDP by 2035.

同時，美國面臨著自己的信譽危機。穆迪將美國主權信用評級從AAA降低到AA1。它列舉了持續的財政赤字，激烈的利息費用以及預計到2035年的聯邦債務負擔為134％。

This marks only the third major downgrade in US history, following similar moves by Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011. Nick Drendel, a data integrity analyst, highlighted the pattern of volatile market reactions following previous downgrades.

這僅標誌著美國歷史上的第三個主要降級，此後Fitch在2023年和2011年的標準普爾進行了類似的舉動。數據完整性分析師Nick Drendel強調了先前降級後揮發性市場反應的模式。

“[The Fitch downgrade in 2023] led to a 74 trading day (-10.6%) correction for the Nasdaq before closing above the close from before the downgrade,” Drendel noted.

Drendel指出：“ [惠譽（Fitch）在2023年的降級]導致納斯達克（Nasdaq）的74交易日（-10.6％）進行了更正，然後在降級之前就關閉了。”

This downgrade mirrors those concerns amid massive debt, political gridlock, and rising default risk.

在巨大的債務，政治僵局和違約風險上升的情況下，這降低了這些擔憂。

Moody’s Downgrade, US Fiscal Woes Boost Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Appeal

穆迪（Moody）的降級，美國財政困境增強了比特幣的安全吸引力

On-chain analyst Adler points out that the market’s reaction was swift. The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened to 100.85, while gold rose 0.4%, signaling a classic flight to safety.

鍊鍊分析師阿德勒指出，市場的反應迅速。美元指數（DXY）削弱至100.85，而黃金上漲了0.4％，標誌著經典的安全航班。

Bitcoin, frequently dubbed digital gold, saw renewed interest as a non-sovereign store of value.

比特幣經常被稱為數字黃金，將人們的興趣重新引起了價值商店。

“Despite the prevailing ‘risk-off’ sentiment … Bitcoin may find itself in a relatively stronger position in the current environment due to its ‘digital gold’ narrative and the supportive effect of a weaker dollar,” Adler noted.

阿德勒指出：“儘管盛行的'冒險'情緒……比特幣可能會發現自己在當前環境中的'數字黃金敘事和弱美元的支持效果，”

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, criticized credit ratings for underplaying the broader monetary risks.

Bridgewater Associates的創始人Ray Dalio批評信用評級低估了更廣泛的貨幣風險。

“They only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt. They don’t include the greater risk that countries in debt will print money to pay their debts, thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they’re getting (rather than from the decreased quantity of money they’re getting). ”

“他們只評估了政府不償還債務的風險。他們不包括債務國家將打印資金償還債務的更大風險，從而導致債券持有人遭受損失的損失，因為他們所獲得的錢的減少價值（而不是從他們所獲得的錢減少）中。”

Against this backdrop, Dalio concludes that the risks for US government debt are greater than the rating agencies are conveying.

在這種背景下，達利奧得出結論，美國政府債務的風險大於評級機構所傳達的風險。

Echoing that sentiment, economist Peter Schiff argued that inflation risk should be front and center when rating sovereign debt. In his opinion, this is especially true when foreign investors who lack political leverage hold much of it.

經濟學家彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）回應這種情緒，認為通貨膨脹風險在評級主權債務時應該是前沿和中心。他認為，當缺乏政治槓桿作用的外國投資者擁有大部分時，這尤其如此。

“When a nation owes a lot of debt to foreigners, who can’t vote, the odds of a default on foreign-owned debt should be factored in.”

“當一個國家欠不投票的外國人的大量債務時，應該考慮將外國債務違約的機率計入。”

The dual macro shifts—China injecting liquidity and the US showing fiscal cracks—present Bitcoin with a unique tailwind. Historically, BTC has thrived under similar conditions: rising inflation fears, weakened fiat credibility, and global capital looking for resilient alternatives.

雙宏移動（中國註入流動性和美國顯示財政裂縫），比特幣具有獨特的逆風。從歷史上看，BTC在類似的條件下蓬勃發展：通貨膨脹的恐懼，菲亞特信譽減弱以及尋求彈性替代方案的全球資本。

Although markets remain volatile, the confluence of dovish Chinese policy and renewed doubts about US fiscal discipline could drive institutional and retail investors toward decentralized assets like Bitcoin.

儘管市場仍然動盪，但中國政策的融合和對美國財政紀律的質疑可能會推動機構和散戶投資者朝著像比特幣這樣的分散資產邁進。

If the dollar continues to lose appeal and central banks adopt easier policies, Bitcoin’s value proposition as a politically neutral, non-inflationary asset will become harder to ignore.

如果美元繼續失去吸引力，中央銀行採用更容易的政策，那麼比特幣的價值主張是政治中立的，非通貨膨脹的資產將變得更加難以忽視。

BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $105,156 as of this writing. This represents a modest 2.11% surge in the last 24 hours.

Beincrypto數據顯示，截至撰寫本文時，BTC的交易價格為105,156美元。這代表了過去24小時內的2.11％的潮流。