来自中国和美国的宏观经济震颤将比特币（BTC）放在了聚光灯下

从2024年到2025年，宏观经济因素和力对比特币的影响已升级

Macroeconomic tremors from China and the US have put Bitcoin (BTC) in the spotlight, offering fertile ground for its narrative as a hedge against traditional finance (TradFi) instability.

来自中国和美国的宏观经济震颤将比特币（BTC）置于聚光灯下，为叙事提供了肥沃的基础，作为对冲传统金融（Tradfi）不稳定的对冲。

The influence of macroeconomic factors and forces on Bitcoin has escalated from 2024 to 2025, after a period when it dissipated in 2023.

宏观经济因素和力对比特币的影响已在2023年消散的一段时间后从2024年到2025年升级。

Bitcoin Gains from China’s Rate Cut and US Credit Downgrade

比特币从中国的降低和美国信贷降级中获取

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut its benchmark lending rates for the first time in seven months. Specifically, it lowered the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.10% to 3.00% and the 5-year LPR from 3.60% to 3.50%.

周二，中国人民银行（PBOC）在七个月内首次降低了其基准贷款率。具体而言，它将1年的贷款优质利率（LPR）从3.10％降低到3.00％，而5年LPR从3.60％降低至3.50％。

The move injects fresh liquidity into global markets. It aims to stimulate a sluggish economy weighed down by weak domestic demand and bolster a shaky property sector, all amid recent trade tensions with the US.

此举向全球市场注入新的流动性。它的目的是刺激疲软的国内需求镇压经济，并加强了一个摇摇欲坠的房地产部门，这一切都在最近与美国的贸易紧张局势中。

“The PBOC cut … to support the economy amid slowing growth and US trade pressures. Essentially, this injects additional momentum into risk assets by providing cheaper liquidity and fostering a risk-on sentiment,” explained on-chain and macro researcher Axel Adler Jr.

“削减PBOC……在增长放缓和美国贸易压力下，为了支持经济。从本质上讲，这通过提供更便宜的流动性并促进风险情绪来注入风险资产的额外势头。”

While China’s easing measures aim to boost local borrowing and spending, they may also spill over into global asset markets, including crypto.

尽管中国采取的轻松措施旨在提高当地借贷和支出，但它们也可能溢出到包括加密在内的全球资产市场。

Often viewed as a high-beta asset, Bitcoin typically benefits from such liquidity tailwinds. This is especially true when coupled with fiat weakening or broader economic instability.

比特币通常被视为高β资产，通常从这种流动性尾风中受益。当结合法定弱化或更广泛的经济不稳定时，尤其如此。

Simultaneously, the US faces its own credibility crisis. Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1. It cited persistent fiscal deficits, ballooning interest expenses, and a projected federal debt burden of 134% of GDP by 2035.

同时，美国面临着自己的信誉危机。穆迪将美国主权信用评级从AAA降低到AA1。它列举了持续的财政赤字，激烈的利息费用以及预计到2035年的联邦债务负担为134％。

This marks only the third major downgrade in US history, following similar moves by Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011. Nick Drendel, a data integrity analyst, highlighted the pattern of volatile market reactions following previous downgrades.

这仅标志着美国历史上的第三个主要降级，此后Fitch在2023年和2011年的标准普尔进行了类似的举动。数据完整性分析师Nick Drendel强调了先前降级后挥发性市场反应的模式。

“[The Fitch downgrade in 2023] led to a 74 trading day (-10.6%) correction for the Nasdaq before closing above the close from before the downgrade,” Drendel noted.

Drendel指出：“ [惠誉（Fitch）在2023年的降级]导致纳斯达克（Nasdaq）的74交易日（-10.6％）进行了更正，然后在降级之前就关闭了。”

This downgrade mirrors those concerns amid massive debt, political gridlock, and rising default risk.

在巨大的债务，政治僵局和违约风险上升的情况下，这降低了这些担忧。

Moody’s Downgrade, US Fiscal Woes Boost Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Appeal

穆迪（Moody）的降级，美国财政困境增强了比特币的安全吸引力

On-chain analyst Adler points out that the market’s reaction was swift. The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened to 100.85, while gold rose 0.4%, signaling a classic flight to safety.

链链分析师阿德勒指出，市场的反应迅速。美元指数（DXY）削弱至100.85，而黄金上涨了0.4％，标志着经典的安全航班。

Bitcoin, frequently dubbed digital gold, saw renewed interest as a non-sovereign store of value.

比特币经常被称为数字黄金，将人们的兴趣重新引起了价值商店。

“Despite the prevailing ‘risk-off’ sentiment … Bitcoin may find itself in a relatively stronger position in the current environment due to its ‘digital gold’ narrative and the supportive effect of a weaker dollar,” Adler noted.

阿德勒指出：“尽管盛行的'冒险'情绪……比特币可能会发现自己在当前环境中的'数字黄金叙事和弱美元的支持效果，”

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, criticized credit ratings for underplaying the broader monetary risks.

Bridgewater Associates的创始人Ray Dalio批评信用评级低估了更广泛的货币风险。

“They only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt. They don’t include the greater risk that countries in debt will print money to pay their debts, thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they’re getting (rather than from the decreased quantity of money they’re getting). ”

“他们只评估了政府不偿还债务的风险。他们不包括债务国家将打印资金偿还债务的更大风险，从而导致债券持有人遭受损失的损失，因为他们所获得的钱的减少价值（而不是从他们所获得的钱减少）中。”

Against this backdrop, Dalio concludes that the risks for US government debt are greater than the rating agencies are conveying.

在这种背景下，达利奥得出结论，美国政府债务的风险大于评级机构所传达的风险。

Echoing that sentiment, economist Peter Schiff argued that inflation risk should be front and center when rating sovereign debt. In his opinion, this is especially true when foreign investors who lack political leverage hold much of it.

经济学家彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）回应这种情绪，认为通货膨胀风险在评级主权债务时应该是前沿和中心。他认为，当缺乏政治杠杆作用的外国投资者拥有大部分时，这尤其如此。

“When a nation owes a lot of debt to foreigners, who can’t vote, the odds of a default on foreign-owned debt should be factored in.”

“当一个国家欠不投票的外国人的大量债务时，应该考虑将外国债务违约的几率计入。”

The dual macro shifts—China injecting liquidity and the US showing fiscal cracks—present Bitcoin with a unique tailwind. Historically, BTC has thrived under similar conditions: rising inflation fears, weakened fiat credibility, and global capital looking for resilient alternatives.

双宏移动（中国注入流动性和美国显示财政裂缝），比特币具有独特的逆风。从历史上看，BTC在类似的条件下蓬勃发展：通货膨胀的恐惧，菲亚特信誉减弱以及寻求弹性替代方案的全球资本。

Although markets remain volatile, the confluence of dovish Chinese policy and renewed doubts about US fiscal discipline could drive institutional and retail investors toward decentralized assets like Bitcoin.

尽管市场仍然动荡，但中国政策的融合和对美国财政纪律的质疑可能会推动机构和散户投资者朝着像比特币这样的分散资产迈进。

If the dollar continues to lose appeal and central banks adopt easier policies, Bitcoin’s value proposition as a politically neutral, non-inflationary asset will become harder to ignore.

如果美元继续失去吸引力，中央银行采用更容易的政策，那么比特币的价值主张是政治中立的，非通货膨胀的资产将变得更加难以忽视。

BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $105,156 as of this writing. This represents a modest 2.11% surge in the last 24 hours.

Beincrypto数据显示，截至撰写本文时，BTC的交易价格为105,156美元。这代表了过去24小时内的2.11％的潮流。