摩根大通分析師說，比特幣在下半年的表現可以勝過黃金

投入：由董事總經理Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou領導的摩根大通分析師報告說，比特幣在下半年的表現可以勝過黃金。分析人士認為，在公司需求不斷上升和美國州的支持越來越多的驅動下，數字資產將對黃金產生基礎。

JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, reported that Bitcoin (BTC) could outperform gold in the year’s second half.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析師由董事總經理Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou領導，報告說，比特幣（BTC）在下半年的表現可以勝過黃金。

The analysts argued that the digital asset will gain ground against gold, driven by rising corporate demand and growing support from U.S. states for investing a portion of their strategic reserves in BTC.

分析人士認為，由於公司需求不斷上升和美國各州在BTC投資其一部分戰略儲量的支持，數字資產將對黃金產生基礎。

After Bitcoin and gold rose in tandem last year as hedges against currency depreciation, both assets are no longer moving in sync. The two assets have entered a zero-sum phase in 2025, with gains in one increasingly coming at the other’s expense.

去年，由於對沖貨幣貶值，比特幣和黃金升起後，這兩種資產都不再同步。這兩個資產在2025年進入了零和階段，其中一項越來越多地以另一支出為代價。

The analysts noted a reversal in capital flow in recent months.

分析師指出，近幾個月來，資本流量逆轉。

JPMorgan says BTC could outperform gold in the second half of 2025

摩根大通說，BTC在2025年下半年可以勝過黃金

JPMorgan says Bitcoin could outperform gold in the second half of 2025

摩根大通說，比特幣在2025年下半年可以勝過黃金

When gold tops, Bitcoin explodes pic.twitter.com/8yRUOxEB76

當金上衣時，比特幣爆炸pic.twitter.com/8yruoxeb76

— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) May 15, 2025

- Quinten | 048.Eth（@quintenfrancois）2025年5月15日

According to JPMorgan’s analysis, Bitcoin is likely to outperform gold in the second half of the year, supported by corporate buying and growing support from U.S. states.

根據摩根大通的分析，在公司購買和不斷增長的美國國家支持的支持下，比特幣在下半年的表現可能會勝過黃金。

They also noted that the debasement trade—where investors buy gold and BTC to hedge against weakening fiat currencies—lifted both assets late last year. The analysts said the trade has stalled this year and turned into a zero-sum game, with one asset rising at the expense of the other.

他們還指出，貶低貿易（投資者購買黃金和BTC以對沖削弱法定貨幣）去年年底都撤離了兩種資產。分析師表示，該行業今年停滯不前，變成了零和遊戲，其中一項資產上升為犧牲另一個資產。

“Between mid-February and mid-April, gold was rising at the expense of Bitcoin, while over the past three weeks, we have been observing the opposite, i.e., Bitcoin rising at the expense of gold.”

“在2月中旬至4月中旬之間，黃金以犧牲比特幣為代價上升，而在過去的三周中，我們一直在觀察相反的情況，即比特幣以犧牲黃金為代價。”

-Nikolas Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director at JPMorgan.

-Nikolas Panigirtzoglou，摩根大通董事總經理。

Since April 22, gold has plummeted nearly 8%, while the virtual currency has gained 18%. The analysts argued that investor flows reflect the shift, with capital moving out of gold ETFs and flowing into Bitcoin. The same can be reflected in the futures data, with gold positions decreasing and BTC positions increasing.

自4月22日以來，黃金已下降了近8％，而虛擬貨幣上漲了18％。分析師認為，投資者的流動反映了這一轉變，資本從黃金ETF中移出並流入比特幣。期貨數據也可以反映出來，黃金位置降低，而BTC位置也在增加。

JPMorgan analysts also noted that the crypto derivatives market is growing as well. U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges have acquired major platforms, with Coinbase buying Deribit, Kraken acquiring NinjaTrader, and Gemini obtaining a license to offer derivatives across Europe. The analysts believe these developments could boost more institutional participation in the crypto space as regulation brings added confidence.

摩根大通分析師還指出，加密衍生物市場也在增長。美國加密貨幣交易所獲得了主要平台，Coinbase購買Deribit，Kraken收購了Ninjatrader，並且Gemini獲得了在歐洲提供衍生品的許可證。分析人士認為，隨著法規帶來的信心，這些發展可能會增加對加密空間的機構參與。

The softening gold prices and the crypto-specific drivers have led JPMorgan analysts to see more upside for Bitcoin in the second half of the year. At the time of publication, the digital asset is exchanging hands at $103,425, a 2.11% increase in the last seven days. Gold is currently trading at 3,222, a 2.62 drop in the past five days.

柔和的黃金價格和特定於加密貨幣的司機導致摩根大通分析師在下半年看到比特幣的更多上漲空間。在出版時，數字資產以103,425美元的價格交換，在過去的七天中增長了2.11％。黃金目前的交易價格為3,222，過去五天下降了2.62。

JPMorgan analysts see BTC outperforming gold in H2 2025

JPMorgan分析師參見BTC在H2 2025中的表現優於黃金

Panigirtzoglou added that the firm expects the year-to-date zero-sum game between gold and BTC to extend to the remainder of the year. JPMorgan analysts also acknowledged that they were biased towards crypto-specific catalysts, creating bullish momentum for Bitcoin over gold into the second half of the year.

Panigirtzoglou補充說，該公司期望黃金和BTC之間的年初零和比賽將擴展到今年剩餘時間。摩根大通分析師還承認，他們對加密特異性的催化劑有偏見，在下半年為金黃色創造了看漲比特幣的勢頭。

Firms like Strategy and Metaplanet have doubled down on their BTC holdings. Strategy plans to raise $84 billion for Bitcoin purchases by 2027 and is already hitting 32% of that target.

戰略和Metaplanet等公司的BTC持有量增加了一倍。戰略計劃在2027年之前籌集840億美元的比特幣購買，並且已經達到了該目標的32％。

Metaplanet also reported on May 14, its strongest quarter to date for Q1 FY2025. The firm’s digital asset holdings jumped to 6,796 BTC, a 3.9x increase year-to-date, and over 5,000 BTC were added in 2025.

Metaplanet還於5月14日報導，這是2015年第1季度最強的季度。該公司的數字資產持有量躍升至6,796 BTC，逐年增長3.9倍，並在2025年增加了5,000多個BTC。

The company also experienced a temporary 7.4 billion yen valuation loss from a Bitcoin price dip in March, but the firm still bounced back with 13.5 billion yen in unrealized gains as of May 12.

該公司還在3月份的比特幣價格下跌造成了74億日元的臨時估值損失，但截至5月12日，該公司仍以135億日元的收益反彈。

Its BTC net asset value has skyrocketed by 103.1x since adopting the Bitcoin Treasury Standard, and its market cap has also grown 138.1x.

自採用比特幣國庫標準以來，其BTC淨資產價值的飆升為103.1倍，其市值也增長了138.1倍。

Several U.S. states are warming up to Bitcoin, with New Hampshire now permitting up to 5% of its reserves in Bitcoin. Arizona also launched a Bitcoin reserve and pledged not to raise taxes this year.

美國幾個州正在加熱比特幣，新罕布什爾州現在允許其在比特幣中的5％的儲備。亞利桑那州還推出了比特幣儲備金，並承諾今年不提高稅收。

The analysts noted that, as the list of states grows with other U.S. states potentially considering adding BTC to their strategic reserves, it could be a sustained positive catalyst for the digital asset.

分析人士指出，隨著國家與其他州可能考慮將BTC添加到其戰略儲量中的國家的列表，這可能是數字資產的持續積極催化劑。