摩根大通分析师说，比特币在下半年的表现可以胜过黄金

投入：由董事总经理Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou领导的摩根大通分析师报告说，比特币在下半年的表现可以胜过黄金。分析人士认为，在公司需求不断上升和美国州的支持越来越多的驱动下，数字资产将对黄金产生基础。

JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, reported that Bitcoin (BTC) could outperform gold in the year’s second half.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师由董事总经理Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou领导，报告说，比特币（BTC）在下半年的表现可以胜过黄金。

The analysts argued that the digital asset will gain ground against gold, driven by rising corporate demand and growing support from U.S. states for investing a portion of their strategic reserves in BTC.

分析人士认为，由于公司需求不断上升和美国各州在BTC投资其一部分战略储量的支持，数字资产将对黄金产生基础。

After Bitcoin and gold rose in tandem last year as hedges against currency depreciation, both assets are no longer moving in sync. The two assets have entered a zero-sum phase in 2025, with gains in one increasingly coming at the other’s expense.

去年，由于对冲货币贬值，比特币和黄金升起后，这两种资产都不再同步。这两个资产在2025年进入了零和阶段，其中一项越来越多地以另一支出为代价。

The analysts noted a reversal in capital flow in recent months.

分析师指出，近几个月来，资本流量逆转。

JPMorgan says BTC could outperform gold in the second half of 2025

摩根大通说，BTC在2025年下半年可以胜过黄金

JPMorgan says Bitcoin could outperform gold in the second half of 2025

摩根大通说，比特币在2025年下半年可以胜过黄金

When gold tops, Bitcoin explodes pic.twitter.com/8yRUOxEB76

当金上衣时，比特币爆炸pic.twitter.com/8yruoxeb76

— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) May 15, 2025

- Quinten | 048.Eth（@quintenfrancois）2025年5月15日

According to JPMorgan’s analysis, Bitcoin is likely to outperform gold in the second half of the year, supported by corporate buying and growing support from U.S. states.

根据摩根大通的分析，在公司购买和不断增长的美国国家支持的支持下，比特币在下半年的表现可能会胜过黄金。

They also noted that the debasement trade—where investors buy gold and BTC to hedge against weakening fiat currencies—lifted both assets late last year. The analysts said the trade has stalled this year and turned into a zero-sum game, with one asset rising at the expense of the other.

他们还指出，贬低贸易（投资者购买黄金和BTC以对冲削弱法定货币）去年年底都撤离了两种资产。分析师表示，该行业今年停滞不前，变成了零和游戏，其中一项资产上升为牺牲另一个资产。

“Between mid-February and mid-April, gold was rising at the expense of Bitcoin, while over the past three weeks, we have been observing the opposite, i.e., Bitcoin rising at the expense of gold.”

“在2月中旬至4月中旬之间，黄金以牺牲比特币为代价上升，而在过去的三周中，我们一直在观察相反的情况，即比特币以牺牲黄金为代价。”

-Nikolas Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director at JPMorgan.

-Nikolas Panigirtzoglou，摩根大通董事总经理。

Since April 22, gold has plummeted nearly 8%, while the virtual currency has gained 18%. The analysts argued that investor flows reflect the shift, with capital moving out of gold ETFs and flowing into Bitcoin. The same can be reflected in the futures data, with gold positions decreasing and BTC positions increasing.

自4月22日以来，黄金已下降了近8％，而虚拟货币上涨了18％。分析师认为，投资者的流动反映了这一转变，资本从黄金ETF中移出并流入比特币。期货数据也可以反映出来，黄金位置降低，而BTC位置也在增加。

JPMorgan analysts also noted that the crypto derivatives market is growing as well. U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges have acquired major platforms, with Coinbase buying Deribit, Kraken acquiring NinjaTrader, and Gemini obtaining a license to offer derivatives across Europe. The analysts believe these developments could boost more institutional participation in the crypto space as regulation brings added confidence.

摩根大通分析师还指出，加密衍生物市场也在增长。美国加密货币交易所获得了主要平台，Coinbase购买Deribit，Kraken收购了Ninjatrader，并且Gemini获得了在欧洲提供衍生品的许可证。分析人士认为，随着法规带来的信心，这些发展可能会增加对加密空间的机构参与。

The softening gold prices and the crypto-specific drivers have led JPMorgan analysts to see more upside for Bitcoin in the second half of the year. At the time of publication, the digital asset is exchanging hands at $103,425, a 2.11% increase in the last seven days. Gold is currently trading at 3,222, a 2.62 drop in the past five days.

柔和的黄金价格和特定于加密货币的司机导致摩根大通分析师在下半年看到比特币的更多上涨空间。在出版时，数字资产以103,425美元的价格交换，在过去的七天中增长了2.11％。黄金目前的交易价格为3,222，过去五天下降了2.62。

JPMorgan analysts see BTC outperforming gold in H2 2025

JPMorgan分析师参见BTC在H2 2025中的表现优于黄金

Panigirtzoglou added that the firm expects the year-to-date zero-sum game between gold and BTC to extend to the remainder of the year. JPMorgan analysts also acknowledged that they were biased towards crypto-specific catalysts, creating bullish momentum for Bitcoin over gold into the second half of the year.

Panigirtzoglou补充说，该公司期望黄金和BTC之间的年初零和比赛将扩展到今年剩余时间。摩根大通分析师还承认，他们对加密特异性的催化剂有偏见，在下半年为金黄色创造了看涨比特币的势头。

Firms like Strategy and Metaplanet have doubled down on their BTC holdings. Strategy plans to raise $84 billion for Bitcoin purchases by 2027 and is already hitting 32% of that target.

战略和Metaplanet等公司的BTC持有量增加了一倍。战略计划在2027年之前筹集840亿美元的比特币购买，并且已经达到了该目标的32％。

Metaplanet also reported on May 14, its strongest quarter to date for Q1 FY2025. The firm’s digital asset holdings jumped to 6,796 BTC, a 3.9x increase year-to-date, and over 5,000 BTC were added in 2025.

Metaplanet还于5月14日报道，这是2015年第1季度最强的季度。该公司的数字资产持有量跃升至6,796 BTC，逐年增长3.9倍，并在2025年增加了5,000多个BTC。

The company also experienced a temporary 7.4 billion yen valuation loss from a Bitcoin price dip in March, but the firm still bounced back with 13.5 billion yen in unrealized gains as of May 12.

该公司还在3月份的比特币价格下跌造成了74亿日元的临时估值损失，但截至5月12日，该公司仍以135亿日元的收益反弹。

Its BTC net asset value has skyrocketed by 103.1x since adopting the Bitcoin Treasury Standard, and its market cap has also grown 138.1x.

自采用比特币国库标准以来，其BTC净资产价值的飙升为103.1倍，其市值也增长了138.1倍。

Several U.S. states are warming up to Bitcoin, with New Hampshire now permitting up to 5% of its reserves in Bitcoin. Arizona also launched a Bitcoin reserve and pledged not to raise taxes this year.

美国几个州正在加热比特币，新罕布什尔州现在允许其在比特币中的5％的储备。亚利桑那州还推出了比特币储备金，并承诺今年不提高税收。

The analysts noted that, as the list of states grows with other U.S. states potentially considering adding BTC to their strategic reserves, it could be a sustained positive catalyst for the digital asset.

分析人士指出，随着国家与其他州可能考虑将BTC添加到其战略储量中的国家的列表，这可能是数字资产的持续积极催化剂。