英特爾的晶片野心面臨TSM挑戰

在這個問答影片中，Colin回答了觀眾提出的各種問題，包括英特爾在晶片行業競爭中面臨的挑戰、特斯拉的現狀、SilverSun Technologies (SSNT)的未來展望以及比特幣的技術分析。雖然英特爾面臨激烈的競爭和有限的代工能力，但特斯拉在充電基礎設施和能源儲存方面保持優勢，但電動車的需求已趨於穩定。 Brad Jacobs 領導的 SilverSun Technologies 計劃整合建築業的分銷業務，但他的融資策略可能會導致股權稀釋。關於比特幣，技術分析表明，比特幣將從 64,000 美元左右的阻力位回調，潛在支撐位為 30,000 美元，為長期投資者創造了潛在的買入機會。

Colin’s Note: It’s time for another Q&A edition of The Bleeding Edge…

柯林的筆記：現在是《嗜血邊緣》的另一個問答版的時間了…

It’s been a minute since I’ve taken a moment to respond to the comments, questions, and concerns you and your fellow subscribers have been writing into our mailbag…

自從我花一點時間回覆您和您的訂閱者同伴寫到我們的郵袋中的評論、問題和擔憂以來，已經過去了一分鐘…

Today, I’ll talk about Intel once again and how the company – though its making some unique and interesting moves in the chips industry right now – isn’t really equipped to make the splash its hoping for.

今天，我將再次談論英特爾，以及該公司儘管目前在晶片行業做出了一些獨特而有趣的舉措，但並沒有真正做好準備以實現其所希望的轟動。

Plus, I’ll give an update on a penny stock we mentioned back in December last year… share an update on where Tesla’s at these days… and share some thoughts on where I see Bitcoin headed in the short term…

另外，我將提供我們去年 12 月提到的低價股的最新情況…分享特斯拉目前的最新情況…並分享一些我認為比特幣短期內走向的想法…

It’s all in today’s video. Click below to watch or read on for the transcript, edited for flow. And if you have your own question or feedback you’d like me to address in our next Q&A, you can reach me at [email protected].

一切都在今天的視頻中。點擊下方觀看或閱讀針對流程進行編輯的文字記錄。如果您有自己的問題或回饋希望我在下一次問答中解決，您可以透過 [email protected] 與我聯繫。

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Bleeding Edge subscribers, hopefully, you guys are doing well.

希望《Bleeding Edge》的訂閱者們一切順利。

It’s been a little while since we’ve done a formal question-and-answer video here in the newsletter. So I thought today we would take our time and answer some questions that have come in.

我們已經有一段時間沒有在時事通訊中製作正式的問答影片了。所以我想今天我們應該花點時間回答一些提出的問題。

I’ll give you an update on a penny stock that we recommended back in December and on Tesla as well. And I’ll share my thoughts on where I think the price of Bitcoin is heading, at least in the shorter term.

我將向您介紹我們在 12 月推薦的低價股以及特斯拉的最新情況。我將分享我對比特幣價格走勢的看法，至少在短期內是如此。

But our very first question comes in and it relates to Intel. It says…

但我們提出的第一個問題與英特爾有關。它說…

What do you think about Intel getting $8 billion from the CHIPS Act to develop chips to compete with Nvidia?

您如何看待英特爾從《晶片法案》中獲得 80 億美元用於開發晶片以與 Nvidia 競爭？

This is a really good question, but we have to unpack it a little bit.

這是一個非常好的問題，但我們必須稍微解釋一下。

So, there are two types of chip companies typically. You have chip companies like Nvidia and AMD… and you even have a company like Apple. A lot of people don’t realize Apple is one of the premier chip designers in the world.

因此，通常有兩種類型的晶片公司。你有像 Nvidia 和 AMD 這樣的晶片公司……甚至還有像蘋果這樣的公司。很多人沒有意識到蘋果是世界上最重要的晶片設計商之一。

These take the chip designs that they’re going to be putting in a phone or a data center or a laptop or a PC, they make their designs and take that to a foundry. And the leading foundry in the world by far is Taiwan Semiconductor – TSM or TSMC for short. This is the company that manufactures the chip.

他們將晶片設計放入手機、資料中心、筆記型電腦或個人電腦中，進行設計並將其送到代工廠。迄今為止，全球領先的晶圓代工廠是台灣半導體（簡稱TSM或台積電）。這是製造晶片的公司。

What Intel is trying to do is rather unique and that hasn’t been done in the chip industry in a little while. Intel is trying to develop and design its own chips to go inside personal computers, servers, and those types of things. But the company is also trying to start a foundry business as well to directly take on TSM.

英特爾試圖做的事情相當獨特，晶片產業已經有一段時間沒有這樣做了。英特爾正在嘗試開發和設計自己的晶片，用於個人電腦、伺服器和此類設備。但該公司也在嘗試開展代工業務，以直接挑戰TSM。

And so, when we’re talking about the $8 billion in CHIPS Act funding that Intel is getting, it’s not really to compete with Nvidia. In fact, Intel would like to bring Nvidia on as a customer. So, Nvidia creates a chip design, and then instead of bringing that to TSM to manufacture, they would bring it to Intel. Apple as well, instead of taking their designs to TSM, would have that design manufactured by Intel.

因此，當我們談論英特爾獲得的 80 億美元 CHIPS 法案資助時，它並不是真正要與 Nvidia 競爭。事實上，英特爾希望讓英偉達成為客戶。因此，Nvidia 創建了一個晶片設計，然後他們不會將其交給 TSM 進行製造，而是將其交給英特爾。 Apple 也不會將其設計交給 TSM，而是由英特爾製造該設計。

Now, I certainly see these leading chip designers like Nvidia and Apple being open to working with Intel. But the problem and the challenge is that while Intel is getting funding from the CHIPS Act here in the United States to the tune of over $8 billion… so is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturer.

現在，我當然看到像英偉達和蘋果這樣的領先晶片設計商願意與英特爾合作。但問題和挑戰是，雖然英特爾從美國的 CHIPS 法案獲得了超過 80 億美元的資金……台積電也是如此。

Just last week, the company secured over $11 billion in grants and loans to build out its foundry business here in the United States. The company’s first American fab – fabrication plant – will be completed in Arizona by 2025. A second fab is likely to be online by 2028. So, the company is planning on investing over $68 billion in Arizona alone.

就在上週，該公司獲得了超過 110 億美元的贈款和貸款，用於在美國建立其代工業務。該公司的第一家美國工廠（製造工廠）將於 2025 年在亞利桑那州竣工。

So, that is what Intel is up against. And in fact, $68 billion just in its investment in the Arizona fab. We’re not even talking about their operations in other parts of the world, including Taiwan, but 68 billion is about half of the market cap where Intel is today.

所以，這就是英特爾所面臨的挑戰。事實上，光是對亞利桑那州晶圓廠的投資就高達 680 億美元。我們甚至沒有談論他們在世界其他地區（包括台灣）的業務，但 680 億美元大約是英特爾今天市值的一半。

The challenge for Intel is they haven’t proven themselves as a leading-edge fabricator. For over a decade, the company’s chips have been marred with problems and delayed. I mean, this is why Intel stock has just not performed as well as AMD and certainly Nvidia.

英特爾面臨的挑戰是他們尚未證明自己是領先的製造商。十多年來，該公司的晶片一直存在問題並出現延誤。我的意思是，這就是為什麼英特爾股票的表現不如 AMD，當然還有 Nvidia。

And there’s really no evidence yet that Intel will do anything more than play a supporting role to TSM. Because if you’re Apple, Nvidia, or AMD… and TSM continues to invest the amount of money they’re investing here in the United States, let alone the rest of the world… there’s really not a big reason to go looking for another chip manufacturer.

目前還沒有任何證據表明英特爾除了扮演 TSM 的支持角色之外還會做任何事情。因為如果你是 Apple、Nvidia 或 AMD……而 TSM 繼續將他們在美國投資的資金投入，更不用說世界其他地方了……確實沒有理由去尋找另一個晶片製造商。

Not only that, Intel already has a foundry business. Now, it’s relatively small compared to the rest of the company, but the problem is they haven’t proven that they can make money in that business.

不僅如此，英特爾已經擁有代工業務。現在，與公司其他部門相比，它的規模相對較小，但問題是他們還沒有證明自己可以在該業務中賺錢。

Last fiscal year for Intel, the foundry business – which again is the chip manufacturing business for them –generated about $1 billion in revenue, but unfortunately lost about $500 million. That is a negative 50% margin in the chip manufacturing business.

英特爾上一財年，代工業務（對他們來說又是晶片製造業務）創造了約 10 億美元的收入，但不幸的是損失了約 5 億美元。這就是晶片製造業務的負50%的利潤率。

Now, look, I am rooting for Intel. I think eventually they’ll find some success. But there is no way, in terms of the amount of dollars that TSM is spending, that it’s going to be able to catch up. And then, Nvidia, AMD, and other companies even like Apple, they’re in a completely different stratosphere when it comes to designing and putting their custom chips inside of data centers and PCs.

現在，看，我支持英特爾。我認為他們最終會取得一些成功。但就 TSM 花費的美元數量而言，它不可能趕上。然後，Nvidia、AMD 和其他公司，甚至像蘋果一樣，在設計和將客製化晶片放入資料中心和 PC 中時，他們處於完全不同的水平。

And then, furthermore, you have other competition coming online from other big wealthy tech companies like Meta and Google. They’re making their own custom silicon chips as well that are replacing a lot of chips, demand, and sales that used to go to Intel. I’ll say it again, I think Intel’s a great company. It’s one of the greatest American companies that we’ve ever had, but its best days are behind it.

此外，還有來自 Meta 和 Google 等其他大型科技公司的線上競賽。他們也在製造自己的客製化矽晶片，這些晶片正在取代以前流向英特爾的大量晶片、需求和銷售。我再說一遍，我認為英特爾是一家偉大的公司。它是我們曾經擁有的最偉大的美國公司之一，但它最好的日子已經過去了。

The next question that came in relates to another great American manufacturing company, and that is Tesla. And the question is pretty straightforward…

下一個問題涉及另一家偉大的美國製造公司，那就是特斯拉。而且問題很簡單…

Colin, what do I think about Tesla stock?

科林，我對特斯拉股票有何看法？

Now, Tesla stock, if you look at the stock chart, has gone more or less sideways for about three or four years. Now, it’s deviated as low as about $100 per share and peaked up to about $400 per share.

現在，如果你看一下股票圖表，特斯拉股票已經或多或少地橫向波動了大約三、四年。現在，它的偏差低至每股 100 美元左右，最高可達每股 400 美元左右。

But more or less, you could have bought Tesla shares where they are today any number of times over the past four years. So, the stock has underperformed, especially when you look at the broader tech sector and other stocks out there.

但或多或少，你可以在過去四年裡多次買特斯拉股票。因此，該股表現不佳，尤其是當你觀察更廣泛的科技板塊和其他股票時。

But here’s what we know about Tesla… Its charging infrastructure – so charging stations for your electric vehicle (EV) – is absolutely the best. And that is the reason why you had other automobile makers – from Ford to GM to I think maybe close to a dozen of the other automobile makers – realize this. And they’re putting Tesla’s charger system on their car. So you’re able to take your Ford or your GM EV that you buy and you’re going to be able to charge this at a Tesla charging station.

但我們對特斯拉的了解是這樣的…它的充電基礎設施——即電動車 (EV) 的充電站——絕對是最好的。這就是為什麼其他汽車製造商——從福特到通用汽車，我想可能有近十幾家其他汽車製造商——意識到了這一點。他們正在將特斯拉的充電系統安裝在他們的車上。因此，您可以駕駛您購買的福特或通用汽車電動車，並且可以在特斯拉充電站為其充電。

I don’t see that competitive advantage for Tesla going away anytime soon. You look at the other publicly traded charging companies like Blink Charging, and there’s EVgo, and there are several others, these are fledgling companies and these charging stations are not nearly as good as Tesla’s and there’s certainly not enough of them to make a difference. So, Tesla has an advantage when it comes to charging infrastructure, probably going to be a decent business for them going forward.

我認為特斯拉的競爭優勢不會很快消失。你看看其他上市的充電公司，像是Blink Charging，還有EVgo，還有其他幾家，這些都是羽翼未豐的公司，這些充電站遠不如特斯拉的充電站，而且它們的數量肯定不足以產生影響。因此，特斯拉在充電基礎設施方面具有優勢，未來可能會成為一項不錯的業務。

They have an energy and storage business, which is interesting. It’s not only interesting, but it’s faster growing from a revenue perspective and it is profitable as well. So, this is battery storage and other technology related to energy and storage. What Tesla has proven that a lot of other companies just simply haven’t is they can develop and manufacture popular products at scale.

他們有能源和儲存業務，這很有趣。它不僅有趣，而且從收入角度來看成長更快，而且也有利可圖。所以，這就是電池儲存和其他與能源和儲存相關的技術。特斯拉已經證明，許多其他公司還沒有證明，他們可以大規模開發和製造受歡迎的產品。

So, they do a very nice job of that. And that does give me hope that Tesla can do it again… certainly with another electric vehicle, maybe a cheaper one, or other models. But it also gives me hope that the company is going to be able to manufacture a humanoid robot.

所以，他們在這方面做得非常好。這確實給了我希望，特斯拉可以再次做到這一點……當然是使用另一款電動車，也許是更便宜的電動車，或是其他車型。但這也給了我希望，該公司將能夠製造人形機器人。

Now, it could just be used internally at its facilities. But it could be one ready for the mass market, and that certainly could bring a new and interesting business model to Tesla.

現在，它只能在其設施內部使用。但它可能已經為大眾市場做好了準備，這肯定會為特斯拉帶來一種新的、有趣的商業模式。

In my opinion, Elon Musk is one of the best operators of a company. It is sometimes misreported and misunderstood in the financial media. People think Tesla is losing money, bleeding money. No. When you bring up the financials of Tesla, you’ll see a very financially healthy company. They have a lot of cash on hand, they generate operating profits, and they generate positive operating cash flow.

在我看來，伊隆馬斯克是最好的公司經營者之一。財經媒體有時會誤報和誤解這一點。人們認為特斯拉正在賠錢，而且正在流血。不會。他們手頭上有大量現金，他們產生營業利潤，並且產生正的經營現金流。

Just today, as demand for EVs certainly seems to have plateaued or it’s certainly not growing at the rate that maybe Tesla even expected, the company announced layoffs. And so, this is a guy – obviously, as you looked at what Elon Musk did with Twitter – who isn’t scared to lay people off and cut costs. And as a shareholder and as an investor, you love when your CEO is quick to act.

就在今天，由於電動車的需求似乎已經趨於穩定，或者肯定沒有以特斯拉預期的速度成長，該公司宣布了裁員。所以，顯然，正如你看到伊隆馬斯克在 Twitter 上所做的那樣，這個人並不害怕裁員和削減成本。作為股東和投資者，您喜歡執行長快速採取行動。

And so, I think Tesla is here for the long haul. I think you have to get it at the right price. I don’t see a catalyst that is likely to send Tesla stock soaring back up into the $300, $400, $500 range anytime soon. I think you can play a wait-and-see approach. And what you’re waiting and seeing is if Tesla can prove itself in other areas.

因此，我認為特斯拉將長期存在。我認為你必須以合適的價格得到它。我認為沒有任何催化劑可以讓特斯拉股價很快飆升至 300 美元、400 美元、500 美元區間。我認為你可以採取觀望的態度。而大家拭目以待的是，特斯拉能否在其他領域證明自己。

Because the electric vehicle, certainly here in the United States, has peaked from a demand perspective. There are other automobile makers out there – and I say this with all due respect, I own two Teslas – but Mercedes makes a beautiful EV. Ford, GM… all these companies make very nice products. And that’s going to keep a lid on how many units Tesla’s able to sell there. But they have an advantage when it comes to charging and when it comes to energy and storage business.

因為從需求的角度來看，電動車（當然在美國）已經達到頂峰。還有其他汽車製造商——我懷著應有的敬意這樣說，我擁有兩輛特斯拉——但梅賽德斯製造了一款漂亮的電動車。福特、通用汽車……所有這些公司都生產非常好的產品。這將限制特斯拉在那裡能夠銷售多少輛汽車。但在充電、能源和儲存業務方面他們有優勢。

And the wild card, I think, is that humanoid robot. If it can turn that into a product that other companies want to buy – like Amazon or Walmart or other companies out there – Tesla would have a product that almost nobody has a competing position against. That’s my thoughts on Tesla.

我認為，未知的因素是那個人形機器人。如果它能夠將其轉變為其他公司想要購買的產品（例如亞馬遜或沃爾瑪或其他公司），那麼特斯拉將擁有一種幾乎沒有人具有競爭地位的產品。這就是我對特斯拉的看法。

Now, the next company that we’ll talk about is a company called SilverSun Technologies (SSNT), and if you recall, we recommended this back on December 5th as one of the best penny stocks you could possibly buy. Shortly after recommending the shares of SilverSun Technologies, the stock exploded. I mean, it went up over 100% over our recommendation price. And today, it’s fallen back a little bit, but it’s still trading at about 12 to $13, which means you’re up maybe between 20 or 30% just since December, which is obviously a pretty decent gain, and somebody wanted an update on that.

現在，我們要談論的下一家公司是一家名為SilverSun Technologies (SSNT) 的公司，如果您還記得的話，我們曾在12 月5 日推薦這家公司，將其作為您可能購買的最佳低價股之一。在推薦SilverSun Technologies的股票後不久，該股就出現了爆炸。我的意思是，它比我們的建議價格上漲了 100% 以上。今天，它有所回落，但仍以12 至13 美元左右的價格交易，這意味著自12 月以來，您的股價可能上漲了20% 或30%，這顯然是一個相當不錯的漲幅，有人想要了解最新情況那。

So, here’s the deal. At the time of recommendation, all we knew was Brad Jacobs, a legendary kind of roll-up investor. So, what this guy’s famous for doing is he did it at Waste Management, the garbage company. He found that the garbage collection business was fractured. You had all these local municipalities and all these small companies doing it. He decided to make one big garbage collection company called Waste Management.

所以，這就是交易。在推薦時，我們只知道布拉德·雅各布斯（Brad Jacobs），一位傳奇的匯總投資者。所以，這個傢伙因為做的事情而聞名，因為他是在廢棄物管理公司（一家垃圾公司）做的。他發現垃圾收集業務已經支離破碎。所有這些地方市政當局和所有這些小公司都在這樣做。他決定成立一家大型垃圾收集公司，名為廢棄物管理公司。

He also saw it in the tool rental business. There were all these places to rent lawnmowers, and maybe a power washer, and it was a fractured business. So, he decided to roll that up into a company called United Rentals, which is still a fantastic company these days.

他還在工具租賃業務中看到了這一點。有很多地方可以租用割草機，也許還有電動洗衣機，這是一個支離破碎的行業。因此，他決定將其整合到一家名為 United Rentals 的公司中，該公司如今仍然是一家出色的公司。

Then he did it again in the truck brokerage business. He found that there were all these mom-and-pop, small truck brokerage businesses. So he decided to roll that up into a company called Express-1, later renamed XPO. And that was my introduction to Brad Jacobs.

隨後他又在卡車經紀業務上做到了這一點。他發現有很多夫妻店、小型卡車經紀公司。因此，他決定將其合併到一家名為 Express-1 的公司，後來更名為 XPO。這就是我對布拉德雅各布斯的介紹。

I own shares of XBO. And once Brad Jacobs took over, shares of this very fledgling penny stock soared. I was able to take all of my shares and sell them. And with that, I bought the house that I’m sitting in today.

我擁有 XBO 的股票。布拉德雅各布斯接任後，這隻羽翼未豐的細價股的股價就飆漲了。我能夠拿走我所有的股票並出售它們。就這樣，我買了今天住的房子。

So, I feel very blessed to have come across Brad Jacobs. And certainly, my family does as well. We’re very fortunate to have the home that we live in today, and a lot of it has to do with Brad Jacobs.

所以，我很幸運能遇到布拉德·雅各布斯。當然，我的家人也是如此。我們非常幸運能夠擁有今天居住的家，這很大程度上與布拉德·雅各布斯有關。

Now, he’s doing it again. And he’s going to rename SilverSun Technologies QXO. He’s going to look to acquire businesses distributing products from lumber to doors to windows to landscaping supplies. So, he’s not going to look to compete. It might sound like he’s looking to compete with Home Depot and Lowe’s. That’s not the case. He’s actually looking for the distributors that sell into a company like that.

現在，他又這麼做了。他還將把 SilverSun Technologies 重新命名為 QXO。他將尋求收購分銷從木材到門窗再到園林綠化用品等產品的企業。所以，他不會尋求競爭。聽起來他似乎想與家得寶（Home Depot）和勞氏（Lowe’s）競爭。事實並非如此。他實際上正在尋找向這樣的公司銷售產品的經銷商。

So, through his experience – likely through United Rentals and certainly the trucking companies – what he’s found is when you’re building a large building or you’re building homes, you’re buying lumber from all these different sources. And then you have to have your windows come in from another source, and then you have to get your landscaping supplies somewhere else.

因此，根據他的經驗——可能是透過聯合租賃公司，當然還有卡車運輸公司——他發現，當你建造一座大型建築或建造房屋時，你會從所有這些不同的來源購買木材。然後你必須從另一個來源獲得你的窗戶，然後你必須從其他地方獲得你的景觀用品。

Now, he’s going to be able to combine and consolidate that business.

現在，他將能夠合併並鞏固該業務。

But where does that leave us for a recommendation? I would just take a wait-and-see approach. I don’t think there’s any reason to jump in there and buy shares of this company until he raises more money. So, that’s what Brad Jacobs is going to have to do.

但這讓我們有什麼建議呢？我只會採取觀望態度。我認為在他籌集更多資金之前沒有任何理由介入並購買這家公司的股票。所以，這就是布拉德雅各布斯要做的事。

He’s going to have to raise more and more money to go out and acquire companies in this sector. He’s going to have to go find a window distributor and a lumber distributor. And he’s going to have to buy these companies and combine them. That is going to take some time.

他將不得不籌集越來越多的資金來收購這個行業的公司。他必須去找窗戶經銷商和木材經銷商。他將不得不收購這些公司並將它們合併。這需要一些時間。

Even if you look at the stock chart of XPO – the shares I own – it went up almost immediately when Brad Jacobs took over, but it was a bumpy ride up to the top.

即使你看一下 XPO（我持有的股票）的股票圖表，當布拉德·雅各布斯 (Brad Jacobs) 接任時，它幾乎立即上漲，但到達頂峰的過程卻很坎坷。

And so, these things will take time. I don’t think we have any rush. If you’re sitting on a 20 or 30% gain and you didn’t take profits when shares just spiked on hype and euphoria when Brad Jacobs took over, well, I tell you what, I would just continue to hold, but I wouldn’t see any reason to add to a position, and I certainly wouldn’t start a new position until Brad Jacobs starts proving out his idea.

因此，這些事情需要時間。我認為我們並不著急。如果你坐擁20% 或30% 的漲幅，而當布拉德·雅各布斯(Brad Jacobs) 接任時，股價因炒作和興奮而飆升時，你沒有獲利了結，好吧，我告訴你，我會繼續持有，但我不會我看不出有任何理由增加一個職位，而且在布拉德雅各布斯開始證明他的想法之前我當然不會開始一個新職位。

Also, his fundraising model, he’s going to have to continue to raise funds to fund this business. That possibly means more shared dilution, which could mean taking on some bank loan debt or other types of financing to have his vision come to fruition. But one thing when it comes to Brad Jacobs is the guy delivers time and time again.

此外，按照他的籌款模式，他將不得不繼續籌集資金來資助這項業務。這可能意味著更多的共享稀釋，這可能意味著承擔一些銀行貸款債務或其他類型的融資，以實現他的願景。但布拉德雅各布斯的一件事是，他一次又一次地交付。

Now, the last question we have is people like the technical analysis that we do, and now technical analysis is not for everybody. I certainly subscribe to a technical analysis that is not nearly as complicated or complex as I see other people, although if somebody has a lot of lines and data points out there for you to look at, it certainly can be valuable.

現在，我們的最後一個問題是人們喜歡我們所做的技術分析，但現在技術分析並不適合所有人。我當然贊成技術分析，它並不像我看到的其他人那麼複雜，儘管如果有人有很多線條和數據點供你查看，那麼它肯定是有價值的。

This next viewer wanted to know if could I do a technical analysis on Bitcoin. Now, if you’re reading this in the newsletter, you might want to flip over to the video because technical analysis is hard to translate into words. It’s easier to see it on the video. (Jump to 14:49 to watch.)

下一位觀眾想知道我是否可以對比特幣進行技術分析。現在，如果您在時事通訊中閱讀本文，您可能想翻看視頻，因為技術分析很難轉化為文字。在視頻中更容易看到它。 （跳到14:49觀看。）

Looking at a price chart of Bitcoin, what you see immediately is you had some highs back here in April at around $65,000. That is also currently the price of Bitcoin.

查看比特幣的價格圖表，您立即看到的是 4 月份的一些高點，約為 65,000 美元。這也是目前比特幣的價格。

Then you also had some highs back in November of 2021, right at the same level. And now, here we are in March of 2024. And what are you seeing? Right about $65,000. This is where Bitcoin hits some resistance from a price perspective.

然後，您在 2021 年 11 月也達到了一些高點，處於同一水平。現在，我們已進入 2024 年 3 月。約65,000美元。從價格角度來看，這是比特幣遇到一些阻力的地方。

So, what you normally see at these levels is what you’ve seen in the past. You see a nice little selloff emerge as the incremental buyer to push the price of Bitcoin from $65,000 up to $70, $75, $80, $100,000. It just doesn’t materialize here.

所以，你通常在這些層面看到的就是你過去看到的。隨著增量買家將比特幣的價格從 65,000 美元推高至 70 美元、75 美元、80 美元、100,000 美元，你會看到出現了不錯的小幅拋售。它只是在這裡沒有實現。

So, you have to assume from a technical pattern perspective, that’s what you’re going to see with Bitcoin, is you are going to see the shares get rejected at the $64,000 level and move lower.

因此，你必須從技術模式的角度假設，這就是你將看到的比特幣，你將看到股票在 64,000 美元的水平被拒絕並走低。

Now, the question is, where do they move lower?

現在的問題是，它們會在哪裡走低？

I’ve put a green line in here where you tend to have support or the buyer step in. There’s another way, and I’m going to show you this, to find levels of support or where you can “buy the dip” when stocks – or in this case crypto – sell-off from some highs and then pull back. It’s in an indicator called volume profile.

我在這裡畫了一條綠線，在那裡你往往會得到支持或買家介入 還有另一種方法，我將向你展示這一點，找到支持水平，或者當你可以“逢低買入”時股票（或在本例中是加密貨幣）從一些高點拋售，然後回調。它位於一個稱為成交量概況的指標中。

So, on something like TradingView, which I’m on right now. You come over here to profiles and you go to the fixed range volume profile. Then you click off of it and select an area of the chart.

所以，我現在正在使用像 TradingView 這樣的東西。您來到此處查看配置文件，然後轉到固定範圍音量配置文件。然後點擊它並選擇圖表的一個區域。

In this case, we’ll just look at the last four years of Bitcoin. And we place this on the chart. What you’re going to notice is, down at the bottom of my chart, I have the volume. This is essentially the number of tokens that were traded on a given day. And when volume is high, it means a lot of people are stepping in. When volume is low, it means the transaction of buying and selling just is pretty low.

在這種情況下，我們只看一下比特幣的過去四年。我們將其放在圖表上。你會注意到的是，在我的圖表底部，我有交易量。這本質上是在給定日期交易的代幣數量。當成交量高時，意味著許多人正在介入。

What this volume profile illustrates is that a lot of people were very intelligent when it came to crypto, and they bought in the $16,000 to $20,000 range. Look at your volume as it is illustrated here on the screen, also illustrated at the bottom of the screen. This is the area where you had a lot of people step in and buy.

這個成交量概況表明，很多人在加密貨幣方面非常聰明，他們購買的價格在 16,000 美元到 20,000 美元之間。查看您的音量，如螢幕上所示，也如螢幕底部所示。這是一個有很多人介入併購買的區域。

Now, as we’re seeing as the price of crypto has just continued to steadily go higher from $30,000 all the way to $60,000, we’re seeing volume shrivel up. So certainly, there are not a lot of sellers up at this range. But there are not a lot of people buying crypto at this elevated range.

現在，正如我們所看到的，隨著加密貨幣的價格從 30,000 美元一路穩步上漲到 60,000 美元，我們看到交易量正在萎縮。當然，在這個範圍內的賣家並不多。但在如此高的範圍內購買加密貨幣的人並不多。

And that’s what makes you a little bit nervous, at least from a perspective that the price is going to be able to hold here and go higher. That incremental buyer is not stepping in, and that means if the sellers emerge at this level, it is likely to push the shares, or in this case the price of the token, down pretty quickly.

這就是讓你有點緊張的原因，至少從價格能夠保持在此處並走高的角度來看是這樣。增量買家不會介入，這意味著如果賣家出現在這個水平上，很可能會推動股價（或在這種情況下是代幣的價格）很快就會下跌。

If you’re in this for the long haul, this is exactly what you want anyway. You want another chance to accumulate some tokens back down here. South of about $30,000, that’s where I would look. And I know, from $64,000 down to $30,000 sounds like a lot…

如果您打算長期從事此行業，那麼這正是您想要的。你想要再有一次機會在這裡累積一些代幣。大約 30,000 美元以下，這就是我會尋找的地方。我知道，從 64,000 美元降到 30,000 美元聽起來很多…

But needless to say, the price of crypto is extraordinarily volatile. And I would expect in the coming weeks, maybe months, even a year or two ahead… the price of crypto will likely have a pretty big pullback. And that’ll be your opportunity if you want to add to the tokens that you already have or if you want to start a new position. That’s certainly where you would do it.

但不用說，加密貨幣的價格非常不穩定。我預計在未來幾週，也許幾個月，甚至一兩年內…加密貨幣的價格可能會出現相當大的回檔。如果您想新增現有的代幣或想開始一個新的職位，這將是您的機會。那肯定是你會做的地方。

Guys, hopefully, you enjoyed today’s question-and-answer video. As always, you can leave them, if you’re watching here on YouTube, down in the comment section. If you’re reading it in the newsletter, reach us at [email protected]. I look forward to hearing from you again soon. I’ll be back later this week. Until then, good luck with your investments.

夥計們，希望你們喜歡今天的問答影片。像往常一樣，如果您在 YouTube 上觀看，您可以將它們留在評論部分。如果您正在新聞通訊中閱讀，請透過 [email protected] 與我們聯繫。我期待很快能再次收到您的來信。我將在本週晚些時候回來。在那之前，祝您投資順利。