英特尔的芯片野心面临TSM挑战

在这个问答视频中，Colin回答了观众提出的各种问题，包括英特尔在芯片行业竞争中面临的挑战、特斯拉的现状、SilverSun Technologies (SSNT)的未来展望以及比特币的技术分析。虽然英特尔面临激烈的竞争和有限的代工能力，但特斯拉在充电基础设施和能源存储方面保持着优势，但电动汽车的需求已趋于稳定。 Brad Jacobs 领导的 SilverSun Technologies 计划整合建筑行业的分销业务，但他的融资策略可能会导致股权稀释。关于比特币，技术分析表明，比特币将从 64,000 美元左右的阻力位回调，潜在支撑位为 30,000 美元，为长期投资者创造了潜在的买入机会。

Colin’s Note: It’s time for another Q&A edition of The Bleeding Edge…

科林的笔记：现在是《嗜血边缘》的另一个问答版的时间了……

It’s been a minute since I’ve taken a moment to respond to the comments, questions, and concerns you and your fellow subscribers have been writing into our mailbag…

自从我花一点时间回复您和您的订阅者同伴写到我们的邮袋中的评论、问题和担忧以来，已经过去了一分钟了……

Today, I’ll talk about Intel once again and how the company – though its making some unique and interesting moves in the chips industry right now – isn’t really equipped to make the splash its hoping for.

今天，我将再次谈论英特尔，以及该公司尽管目前在芯片行业做出了一些独特而有趣的举措，但并没有真正做好准备以实现其所希望的轰动。

Plus, I’ll give an update on a penny stock we mentioned back in December last year… share an update on where Tesla’s at these days… and share some thoughts on where I see Bitcoin headed in the short term…

另外，我将提供我们去年 12 月提到的低价股的最新情况……分享特斯拉目前的最新情况……并分享一些我认为比特币短期内走向的想法……

It’s all in today’s video. Click below to watch or read on for the transcript, edited for flow. And if you have your own question or feedback you’d like me to address in our next Q&A, you can reach me at [email protected].

一切都在今天的视频中。单击下面观看或阅读针对流程进行编辑的文字记录。如果您有自己的问题或反馈希望我在下一次问答中解决，您可以通过 [email protected] 与我联系。

---

Bleeding Edge subscribers, hopefully, you guys are doing well.

希望《Bleeding Edge》的订阅者们一切顺利。

It’s been a little while since we’ve done a formal question-and-answer video here in the newsletter. So I thought today we would take our time and answer some questions that have come in.

我们已经有一段时间没有在时事通讯中制作正式的问答视频了。所以我想今天我们应该花点时间回答一些提出的问题。

I’ll give you an update on a penny stock that we recommended back in December and on Tesla as well. And I’ll share my thoughts on where I think the price of Bitcoin is heading, at least in the shorter term.

我将向您介绍我们在 12 月份推荐的低价股以及特斯拉的最新情况。我将分享我对比特币价格走势的看法，至少在短期内如此。

But our very first question comes in and it relates to Intel. It says…

但我们提出的第一个问题与英特尔有关。它说…

What do you think about Intel getting $8 billion from the CHIPS Act to develop chips to compete with Nvidia?

您如何看待英特尔从《芯片法案》中获得 80 亿美元用于开发芯片以与 Nvidia 竞争？

This is a really good question, but we have to unpack it a little bit.

这是一个非常好的问题，但我们必须稍微解释一下。

So, there are two types of chip companies typically. You have chip companies like Nvidia and AMD… and you even have a company like Apple. A lot of people don’t realize Apple is one of the premier chip designers in the world.

因此，通常有两种类型的芯片公司。你有像 Nvidia 和 AMD 这样的芯片公司……甚至还有像苹果这样的公司。很多人没有意识到苹果是世界上最重要的芯片设计商之一。

These take the chip designs that they’re going to be putting in a phone or a data center or a laptop or a PC, they make their designs and take that to a foundry. And the leading foundry in the world by far is Taiwan Semiconductor – TSM or TSMC for short. This is the company that manufactures the chip.

他们将芯片设计放入手机、数据中心、笔记本电脑或个人电脑中，进行设计并将其送到代工厂。迄今为止，全球领先的晶圆代工厂是台湾半导体（简称TSM或台积电）。这是制造芯片的公司。

What Intel is trying to do is rather unique and that hasn’t been done in the chip industry in a little while. Intel is trying to develop and design its own chips to go inside personal computers, servers, and those types of things. But the company is also trying to start a foundry business as well to directly take on TSM.

英特尔试图做的事情相当独特，芯片行业已经有一段时间没有这样做了。英特尔正在尝试开发和设计自己的芯片，用于个人电脑、服务器和此类设备。但该公司也在尝试开展代工业务，以直接挑战TSM。

And so, when we’re talking about the $8 billion in CHIPS Act funding that Intel is getting, it’s not really to compete with Nvidia. In fact, Intel would like to bring Nvidia on as a customer. So, Nvidia creates a chip design, and then instead of bringing that to TSM to manufacture, they would bring it to Intel. Apple as well, instead of taking their designs to TSM, would have that design manufactured by Intel.

因此，当我们谈论英特尔获得的 80 亿美元 CHIPS 法案资助时，它并不是真正要与 Nvidia 竞争。事实上，英特尔希望让英伟达成为客户。因此，Nvidia 创建了一个芯片设计，然后他们不会将其交给 TSM 进行制造，而是将其交给英特尔。 Apple 也不会将其设计交给 TSM，而是由英特尔制造该设计。

Now, I certainly see these leading chip designers like Nvidia and Apple being open to working with Intel. But the problem and the challenge is that while Intel is getting funding from the CHIPS Act here in the United States to the tune of over $8 billion… so is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturer.

现在，我当然看到像英伟达和苹果这样的领先芯片设计商愿意与英特尔合作。但问题和挑战是，虽然英特尔从美国的 CHIPS 法案获得了超过 80 亿美元的资金……台积电也是如此。

Just last week, the company secured over $11 billion in grants and loans to build out its foundry business here in the United States. The company’s first American fab – fabrication plant – will be completed in Arizona by 2025. A second fab is likely to be online by 2028. So, the company is planning on investing over $68 billion in Arizona alone.

就在上周，该公司获得了超过 110 亿美元的赠款和贷款，用于在美国建立其代工业务。该公司的第一家美国工厂（制造工厂）将于 2025 年在亚利桑那州竣工。第二家工厂可能会在 2028 年上线。因此，该公司计划仅在亚利桑那州投资超过 680 亿美元。

So, that is what Intel is up against. And in fact, $68 billion just in its investment in the Arizona fab. We’re not even talking about their operations in other parts of the world, including Taiwan, but 68 billion is about half of the market cap where Intel is today.

所以，这就是英特尔所面临的挑战。事实上，光是对亚利桑那州晶圆厂的投资就高达 680 亿美元。我们甚至没有谈论他们在世界其他地区（包括台湾）的业务，但 680 亿美元大约是英特尔今天市值的一半。

The challenge for Intel is they haven’t proven themselves as a leading-edge fabricator. For over a decade, the company’s chips have been marred with problems and delayed. I mean, this is why Intel stock has just not performed as well as AMD and certainly Nvidia.

英特尔面临的挑战是他们尚未证明自己是领先的制造商。十多年来，该公司的芯片一直存在问题并出现延误。我的意思是，这就是为什么英特尔股票的表现不如 AMD，当然还有 Nvidia。

And there’s really no evidence yet that Intel will do anything more than play a supporting role to TSM. Because if you’re Apple, Nvidia, or AMD… and TSM continues to invest the amount of money they’re investing here in the United States, let alone the rest of the world… there’s really not a big reason to go looking for another chip manufacturer.

目前还没有任何证据表明英特尔除了扮演 TSM 的支持角色之外还会做任何事情。因为如果你是 Apple、Nvidia 或 AMD……并且 TSM 继续将他们在美国投资的资金投入，更不用说世界其他地方了……确实没有理由去寻找另一个芯片制造商。

Not only that, Intel already has a foundry business. Now, it’s relatively small compared to the rest of the company, but the problem is they haven’t proven that they can make money in that business.

不仅如此，英特尔已经拥有代工业务。现在，与公司其他部门相比，它的规模相对较小，但问题是他们还没有证明自己可以在该业务中赚钱。

Last fiscal year for Intel, the foundry business – which again is the chip manufacturing business for them –generated about $1 billion in revenue, but unfortunately lost about $500 million. That is a negative 50% margin in the chip manufacturing business.

英特尔上一财年，代工业务（对他们来说又是芯片制造业务）创造了约 10 亿美元的收入，但不幸的是损失了约 5 亿美元。这就是芯片制造业务的负50%的利润率。

Now, look, I am rooting for Intel. I think eventually they’ll find some success. But there is no way, in terms of the amount of dollars that TSM is spending, that it’s going to be able to catch up. And then, Nvidia, AMD, and other companies even like Apple, they’re in a completely different stratosphere when it comes to designing and putting their custom chips inside of data centers and PCs.

现在，看，我支持英特尔。我认为他们最终会取得一些成功。但就 TSM 花费的美元数量而言，它不可能赶上。然后，Nvidia、AMD 和其他公司，甚至像苹果一样，在设计和将定制芯片放入数据中心和 PC 中时，他们处于完全不同的水平。

And then, furthermore, you have other competition coming online from other big wealthy tech companies like Meta and Google. They’re making their own custom silicon chips as well that are replacing a lot of chips, demand, and sales that used to go to Intel. I’ll say it again, I think Intel’s a great company. It’s one of the greatest American companies that we’ve ever had, but its best days are behind it.

此外，还有来自 Meta 和 Google 等其他大型科技公司的在线竞争。他们也在制造自己的定制硅芯片，这些芯片正在取代以前流向英特尔的大量芯片、​​需求和销售。我再说一遍，我认为英特尔是一家伟大的公司。它是我们曾经拥有的最伟大的美国公司之一，但它最好的日子已经过去了。

The next question that came in relates to another great American manufacturing company, and that is Tesla. And the question is pretty straightforward…

下一个问题涉及另一家伟大的美国制造公司，那就是特斯拉。而且问题很简单……

Colin, what do I think about Tesla stock?

科林，我对特斯拉股票有何看法？

Now, Tesla stock, if you look at the stock chart, has gone more or less sideways for about three or four years. Now, it’s deviated as low as about $100 per share and peaked up to about $400 per share.

现在，如果你看一下股票图表，特斯拉股票已经或多或少地横向波动了大约三四年。现在，它的偏差低至每股 100 美元左右，最高可达每股 400 美元左右。

But more or less, you could have bought Tesla shares where they are today any number of times over the past four years. So, the stock has underperformed, especially when you look at the broader tech sector and other stocks out there.

但或多或少，你可以在过去四年里多次购买特斯拉股票。因此，该股表现不佳，尤其是当你观察更广泛的科技板块和其他股票时。

But here’s what we know about Tesla… Its charging infrastructure – so charging stations for your electric vehicle (EV) – is absolutely the best. And that is the reason why you had other automobile makers – from Ford to GM to I think maybe close to a dozen of the other automobile makers – realize this. And they’re putting Tesla’s charger system on their car. So you’re able to take your Ford or your GM EV that you buy and you’re going to be able to charge this at a Tesla charging station.

但我们对特斯拉的了解是这样的……它的充电基础设施——即电动汽车 (EV) 的充电站——绝对是最好的。这就是为什么其他汽车制造商——从福特到通用汽车，我想可能有近十几家其他汽车制造商——意识到了这一点。他们正在将特斯拉的充电系统安装在他们的汽车上。因此，您可以驾驶您购买的福特或通用汽车电动汽车，并且可以在特斯拉充电站为其充电。

I don’t see that competitive advantage for Tesla going away anytime soon. You look at the other publicly traded charging companies like Blink Charging, and there’s EVgo, and there are several others, these are fledgling companies and these charging stations are not nearly as good as Tesla’s and there’s certainly not enough of them to make a difference. So, Tesla has an advantage when it comes to charging infrastructure, probably going to be a decent business for them going forward.

我认为特斯拉的竞争优势不会很快消失。你看看其他上市的充电公司，比如 Blink Charging，还有 EVgo，还有其他几家，这些都是羽翼未丰的公司，这些充电站远不如特斯拉的充电站，而且它们的数量肯定不足以产生影响。因此，特斯拉在充电基础设施方面具有优势，未来可能会成为一项不错的业务。

They have an energy and storage business, which is interesting. It’s not only interesting, but it’s faster growing from a revenue perspective and it is profitable as well. So, this is battery storage and other technology related to energy and storage. What Tesla has proven that a lot of other companies just simply haven’t is they can develop and manufacture popular products at scale.

他们有能源和存储业务，这很有趣。它不仅有趣，而且从收入角度来看增长更快，而且也有利可图。所以，这就是电池存储和其他与能源和存储相关的技术。特斯拉已经证明，许多其他公司还没有证明，他们可以大规模开发和制造受欢迎的产品。

So, they do a very nice job of that. And that does give me hope that Tesla can do it again… certainly with another electric vehicle, maybe a cheaper one, or other models. But it also gives me hope that the company is going to be able to manufacture a humanoid robot.

所以，他们在这方面做得非常好。这确实给了我希望，特斯拉可以再次做到这一点……当然是使用另一款电动汽车，也许是更便宜的电动汽车，或者其他车型。但这也给了我希望，该公司将能够制造人形机器人。

Now, it could just be used internally at its facilities. But it could be one ready for the mass market, and that certainly could bring a new and interesting business model to Tesla.

现在，它只能在其设施内部使用。但它可能已经为大众市场做好了准备，这肯定会给特斯拉带来一种新的、有趣的商业模式。

In my opinion, Elon Musk is one of the best operators of a company. It is sometimes misreported and misunderstood in the financial media. People think Tesla is losing money, bleeding money. No. When you bring up the financials of Tesla, you’ll see a very financially healthy company. They have a lot of cash on hand, they generate operating profits, and they generate positive operating cash flow.

在我看来，埃隆·马斯克是最好的公司经营者之一。财经媒体有时会误报和误解这一点。人们认为特斯拉正在赔钱，正在流血。不会。当你提到特斯拉的财务状况时，你会发现这是一家财务状况非常健康的公司。他们手头有大量现金，他们产生营业利润，并且产生正的经营现金流。

Just today, as demand for EVs certainly seems to have plateaued or it’s certainly not growing at the rate that maybe Tesla even expected, the company announced layoffs. And so, this is a guy – obviously, as you looked at what Elon Musk did with Twitter – who isn’t scared to lay people off and cut costs. And as a shareholder and as an investor, you love when your CEO is quick to act.

就在今天，由于电动汽车的需求似乎已经趋于稳定，或者肯定没有以特斯拉预期的速度增长，该公司宣布了裁员。所以，显然，正如你看到埃隆·马斯克在 Twitter 上所做的那样，这个人并不害怕裁员和削减成本。作为股东和投资者，您喜欢首席执行官快速采取行动。

And so, I think Tesla is here for the long haul. I think you have to get it at the right price. I don’t see a catalyst that is likely to send Tesla stock soaring back up into the $300, $400, $500 range anytime soon. I think you can play a wait-and-see approach. And what you’re waiting and seeing is if Tesla can prove itself in other areas.

因此，我认为特斯拉将长期存在。我认为你必须以合适的价格得到它。我认为没有任何催化剂可以让特斯拉股价很快飙升至 300 美元、400 美元、500 美元区间。我认为你可以采取观望的态度。而大家拭目以待的是，特斯拉能否在其他领域证明自己。

Because the electric vehicle, certainly here in the United States, has peaked from a demand perspective. There are other automobile makers out there – and I say this with all due respect, I own two Teslas – but Mercedes makes a beautiful EV. Ford, GM… all these companies make very nice products. And that’s going to keep a lid on how many units Tesla’s able to sell there. But they have an advantage when it comes to charging and when it comes to energy and storage business.

因为从需求的角度来看，电动汽车（当然是在美国）已经达到顶峰。还有其他汽车制造商——我怀着应有的敬意这样说，我拥有两辆特斯拉——但梅赛德斯制造了一款漂亮的电动汽车。福特、通用汽车……所有这些公司都生产非常好的产品。这将限制特斯拉在那里能够销售多少辆汽车。但在充电、能源和存储业务方面他们有优势。

And the wild card, I think, is that humanoid robot. If it can turn that into a product that other companies want to buy – like Amazon or Walmart or other companies out there – Tesla would have a product that almost nobody has a competing position against. That’s my thoughts on Tesla.

我认为，未知的因素是那个人形机器人。如果它能够将其转变为其他公司想要购买的产品（例如亚马逊或沃尔玛或其他公司），那么特斯拉将拥有一种几乎没有人具有竞争地位的产品。这就是我对特斯拉的看法。

Now, the next company that we’ll talk about is a company called SilverSun Technologies (SSNT), and if you recall, we recommended this back on December 5th as one of the best penny stocks you could possibly buy. Shortly after recommending the shares of SilverSun Technologies, the stock exploded. I mean, it went up over 100% over our recommendation price. And today, it’s fallen back a little bit, but it’s still trading at about 12 to $13, which means you’re up maybe between 20 or 30% just since December, which is obviously a pretty decent gain, and somebody wanted an update on that.

现在，我们要谈论的下一家公司是一家名为 SilverSun Technologies (SSNT) 的公司，如果您还记得的话，我们曾在 12 月 5 日推荐这家公司，将其作为您可能购买的最佳低价股之一。在推荐SilverSun Technologies的股票后不久，该股就出现了爆炸。我的意思是，它比我们的建议价格上涨了 100% 以上。今天，它有所回落，但仍以 12 至 13 美元左右的价格交易，这意味着自 12 月以来，您的股价可能上涨了 20% 或 30%，这显然是一个相当不错的涨幅，有人想要了解最新情况那。

So, here’s the deal. At the time of recommendation, all we knew was Brad Jacobs, a legendary kind of roll-up investor. So, what this guy’s famous for doing is he did it at Waste Management, the garbage company. He found that the garbage collection business was fractured. You had all these local municipalities and all these small companies doing it. He decided to make one big garbage collection company called Waste Management.

所以，这就是交易。在推荐时，我们只知道布拉德·雅各布斯（Brad Jacobs），一位传奇的汇总投资者。所以，这个家伙因做的事情而闻名，因为他是在废物管理公司（一家垃圾公司）做的。他发现垃圾收集业务已经支离破碎。所有这些地方市政当局和所有这些小公司都在这样做。他决定成立一家大型垃圾收集公司，名为废物管理公司。

He also saw it in the tool rental business. There were all these places to rent lawnmowers, and maybe a power washer, and it was a fractured business. So, he decided to roll that up into a company called United Rentals, which is still a fantastic company these days.

他还在工具租赁业务中看到了这一点。有很多地方可以租割草机，也许还有电动洗衣机，这是一个支离破碎的行业。因此，他决定将其整合到一家名为 United Rentals 的公司中，该公司如今仍然是一家出色的公司。

Then he did it again in the truck brokerage business. He found that there were all these mom-and-pop, small truck brokerage businesses. So he decided to roll that up into a company called Express-1, later renamed XPO. And that was my introduction to Brad Jacobs.

随后他又在卡车经纪业务上做到了这一点。他发现有很多夫妻店、小型卡车经纪公司。因此，他决定将其合并到一家名为 Express-1 的公司，后来更名为 XPO。这就是我对布拉德·雅各布斯的介绍。

I own shares of XBO. And once Brad Jacobs took over, shares of this very fledgling penny stock soared. I was able to take all of my shares and sell them. And with that, I bought the house that I’m sitting in today.

我拥有 XBO 的股票。布拉德·雅各布斯接任后，这只羽翼未丰的细价股的股价就飙升了。我能够拿走我所有的股票并出售它们。就这样，我买了今天住的房子。

So, I feel very blessed to have come across Brad Jacobs. And certainly, my family does as well. We’re very fortunate to have the home that we live in today, and a lot of it has to do with Brad Jacobs.

所以，我很幸运能遇到布拉德·雅各布斯。当然，我的家人也是如此。我们非常幸运能够拥有今天居住的家，这很大程度上与布拉德·雅各布斯有关。

Now, he’s doing it again. And he’s going to rename SilverSun Technologies QXO. He’s going to look to acquire businesses distributing products from lumber to doors to windows to landscaping supplies. So, he’s not going to look to compete. It might sound like he’s looking to compete with Home Depot and Lowe’s. That’s not the case. He’s actually looking for the distributors that sell into a company like that.

现在，他又这么做了。他还将把 SilverSun Technologies 重新命名为 QXO。他将寻求收购分销从木材到门窗再到园林绿化用品等产品的企业。所以，他不会寻求竞争。听起来他似乎想与家得宝（Home Depot）和劳氏（Lowe’s）竞争。事实并非如此。他实际上正在寻找向这样的公司销售产品的经销商。

So, through his experience – likely through United Rentals and certainly the trucking companies – what he’s found is when you’re building a large building or you’re building homes, you’re buying lumber from all these different sources. And then you have to have your windows come in from another source, and then you have to get your landscaping supplies somewhere else.

因此，根据他的经验——可能是通过联合租赁公司，当然还有卡车运输公司——他发现，当你建造一座大型建筑或建造房屋时，你会从所有这些不同的来源购买木材。然后你必须从另一个来源获得你的窗户，然后你必须从其他地方获得你的景观美化用品。

Now, he’s going to be able to combine and consolidate that business.

现在，他将能够合并并巩固该业务。

But where does that leave us for a recommendation? I would just take a wait-and-see approach. I don’t think there’s any reason to jump in there and buy shares of this company until he raises more money. So, that’s what Brad Jacobs is going to have to do.

但这让我们有什么建议呢？我只会采取观望态度。我认为在他筹集更多资金之前没有任何理由介入并购买这家公司的股票。所以，这就是布拉德·雅各布斯要做的事。

He’s going to have to raise more and more money to go out and acquire companies in this sector. He’s going to have to go find a window distributor and a lumber distributor. And he’s going to have to buy these companies and combine them. That is going to take some time.

他将不得不筹集越来越多的资金来收购这个行业的公司。他必须去找窗户经销商和木材经销商。他将不得不收购这些公司并将它们合并。这需要一些时间。

Even if you look at the stock chart of XPO – the shares I own – it went up almost immediately when Brad Jacobs took over, but it was a bumpy ride up to the top.

即使你看一下 XPO（我持有的股票）的股票图表，当布拉德·雅各布斯 (Brad Jacobs) 接任时，它几乎立即上涨，但到达顶峰的过程却很坎坷。

And so, these things will take time. I don’t think we have any rush. If you’re sitting on a 20 or 30% gain and you didn’t take profits when shares just spiked on hype and euphoria when Brad Jacobs took over, well, I tell you what, I would just continue to hold, but I wouldn’t see any reason to add to a position, and I certainly wouldn’t start a new position until Brad Jacobs starts proving out his idea.

因此，这些事情需要时间。我认为我们并不着急。如果你坐拥 20% 或 30% 的涨幅，而当布拉德·雅各布斯 (Brad Jacobs) 接任时，股价因炒作和兴奋而飙升时，你没有获利了结，好吧，我告诉你，我会继续持有，但我不会我看不出有任何理由增加一个职位，而且在布拉德·雅各布斯开始证明他的想法之前我当然不会开始一个新职位。

Also, his fundraising model, he’s going to have to continue to raise funds to fund this business. That possibly means more shared dilution, which could mean taking on some bank loan debt or other types of financing to have his vision come to fruition. But one thing when it comes to Brad Jacobs is the guy delivers time and time again.

此外，按照他的筹款模式，他将不得不继续筹集资金来资助这项业务。这可能意味着更多的共享稀释，这可能意味着承担一些银行贷款债务或其他类型的融资，以实现他的愿景。但布拉德·雅各布斯的一件事是，他一次又一次地交付。

Now, the last question we have is people like the technical analysis that we do, and now technical analysis is not for everybody. I certainly subscribe to a technical analysis that is not nearly as complicated or complex as I see other people, although if somebody has a lot of lines and data points out there for you to look at, it certainly can be valuable.

现在，我们的最后一个问题是人们喜欢我们所做的技术分析，但现在技术分析并不适合所有人。我当然赞成技术分析，它并不像我看到的其他人那么复杂，尽管如果有人有很多线条和数据点供你查看，那么它肯定是有价值的。

This next viewer wanted to know if could I do a technical analysis on Bitcoin. Now, if you’re reading this in the newsletter, you might want to flip over to the video because technical analysis is hard to translate into words. It’s easier to see it on the video. (Jump to 14:49 to watch.)

下一位观众想知道我是否可以对比特币进行技术分析。现在，如果您在时事通讯中阅读本文，您可能想翻看视频，因为技术分析很难转化为文字。在视频中更容易看到它。 （跳到14:49观看。）

Looking at a price chart of Bitcoin, what you see immediately is you had some highs back here in April at around $65,000. That is also currently the price of Bitcoin.

查看比特币的价格图表，您立即看到的是 4 月份的一些高点，约为 65,000 美元。这也是目前比特币的价格。

Then you also had some highs back in November of 2021, right at the same level. And now, here we are in March of 2024. And what are you seeing? Right about $65,000. This is where Bitcoin hits some resistance from a price perspective.

然后，您在 2021 年 11 月也达到了一些高点，处于同一水平。现在，我们已进入 2024 年 3 月。您看到了什么？大约65,000美元。从价格角度来看，这是比特币遇到一些阻力的地方。

So, what you normally see at these levels is what you’ve seen in the past. You see a nice little selloff emerge as the incremental buyer to push the price of Bitcoin from $65,000 up to $70, $75, $80, $100,000. It just doesn’t materialize here.

所以，你通常在这些级别看到的就是你过去看到的。随着增量买家将比特币的价格从 65,000 美元推高至 70 美元、75 美元、80 美元、100,000 美元，你会看到出现了不错的小幅抛售。它只是在这里没有实现。

So, you have to assume from a technical pattern perspective, that’s what you’re going to see with Bitcoin, is you are going to see the shares get rejected at the $64,000 level and move lower.

因此，你必须从技术模式的角度假设，这就是你将看到的比特币，你将看到股票在 64,000 美元的水平被拒绝并走低。

Now, the question is, where do they move lower?

现在的问题是，它们会在哪里走低？

I’ve put a green line in here where you tend to have support or the buyer step in. There’s another way, and I’m going to show you this, to find levels of support or where you can “buy the dip” when stocks – or in this case crypto – sell-off from some highs and then pull back. It’s in an indicator called volume profile.

我在这里画了一条绿线，在那里你往往会得到支持或买家介入。还有另一种方法，我将向你展示这一点，找到支持水平，或者当你可以“逢低买入”时股票（或者在本例中是加密货币）从一些高点抛售，然后回调。它位于一个称为成交量概况的指标中。

So, on something like TradingView, which I’m on right now. You come over here to profiles and you go to the fixed range volume profile. Then you click off of it and select an area of the chart.

所以，我现在正在使用像 TradingView 这样的东西。您来到此处查看配置文件，然后转到固定范围音量配置文件。然后单击它并选择图表的一个区域。

In this case, we’ll just look at the last four years of Bitcoin. And we place this on the chart. What you’re going to notice is, down at the bottom of my chart, I have the volume. This is essentially the number of tokens that were traded on a given day. And when volume is high, it means a lot of people are stepping in. When volume is low, it means the transaction of buying and selling just is pretty low.

在这种情况下，我们只看一下比特币的过去四年。我们将其放在图表上。你会注意到的是，在我的图表底部，我有交易量。这本质上是在给定日期交易的代币数量。当成交量高时，意味着很多人正在介入。当成交量低时，则意味着买卖交易量非常低。

What this volume profile illustrates is that a lot of people were very intelligent when it came to crypto, and they bought in the $16,000 to $20,000 range. Look at your volume as it is illustrated here on the screen, also illustrated at the bottom of the screen. This is the area where you had a lot of people step in and buy.

这个成交量概况表明，很多人在加密货币方面非常聪明，他们购买的价格在 16,000 美元到 20,000 美元之间。查看您的音量，如屏幕上所示，也如屏幕底部所示。这是有很多人介入并购买的区域。

Now, as we’re seeing as the price of crypto has just continued to steadily go higher from $30,000 all the way to $60,000, we’re seeing volume shrivel up. So certainly, there are not a lot of sellers up at this range. But there are not a lot of people buying crypto at this elevated range.

现在，正如我们所看到的，随着加密货币的价格从 30,000 美元一路稳步上涨到 60,000 美元，我们看到交易量在萎缩。当然，在这个范围内的卖家并不多。但在如此高的范围内购买加密货币的人并不多。

And that’s what makes you a little bit nervous, at least from a perspective that the price is going to be able to hold here and go higher. That incremental buyer is not stepping in, and that means if the sellers emerge at this level, it is likely to push the shares, or in this case the price of the token, down pretty quickly.

这就是让你有点紧张的原因，至少从价格能够保持在此处并走高的角度来看是这样。增量买家不会介入，这意味着如果卖家出现在这个水平上，很可能会推动股价（或者在这种情况下是代币的价格）很快下跌。

If you’re in this for the long haul, this is exactly what you want anyway. You want another chance to accumulate some tokens back down here. South of about $30,000, that’s where I would look. And I know, from $64,000 down to $30,000 sounds like a lot…

如果您打算长期从事此行业，那么这正是您想要的。你想要再有一次机会在这里积累一些代币。大约 30,000 美元以下，这就是我会寻找的地方。我知道，从 64,000 美元降到 30,000 美元听起来很多……

But needless to say, the price of crypto is extraordinarily volatile. And I would expect in the coming weeks, maybe months, even a year or two ahead… the price of crypto will likely have a pretty big pullback. And that’ll be your opportunity if you want to add to the tokens that you already have or if you want to start a new position. That’s certainly where you would do it.

但不用说，加密货币的价格非常不稳定。我预计在未来几周，也许几个月，甚至一两年内……加密货币的价格可能会出现相当大的回调。如果您想添加已有的代币或想开始一个新的职位，这将是您的机会。那肯定是你会做的地方。

Guys, hopefully, you enjoyed today’s question-and-answer video. As always, you can leave them, if you’re watching here on YouTube, down in the comment section. If you’re reading it in the newsletter, reach us at [email protected]. I look forward to hearing from you again soon. I’ll be back later this week. Until then, good luck with your investments.

伙计们，希望你们喜欢今天的问答视频。与往常一样，如果您在 YouTube 上观看，您可以将它们留在评论部分。如果您正在新闻通讯中阅读，请通过 [email protected] 与我们联系。我期待很快再次收到您的来信。我将在本周晚些时候回来。在那之前，祝您投资顺利。