機構投資者有望在2026年持有比特幣總供應的20％

根據Crypto Investment公司Bitwise的周四報告，機構投資者有望持有比特幣總供應的驚人的20％

Crypto investment firm Bitwise predicts that institutional investors will come to hold 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply, or about 4.2 million BTC, by the end of 2026, according to a Thursday report.

根據周四的報告，加密投資公司（Crypto Investment Firm）預測，到2026年底，機構投資者將持有比特幣總供應量的20％，即約420萬BTC。

The new projection highlights a chapter in Bitcoin adoption that isn’t being driven by retail enthusiasm or tech innovation but rather by strategic financial decisions from governments, corporations, and wealth managers.

新的預測強調了比特幣採用的一章，而不是由零售熱情或技術創新所驅動，而是由政府，公司和財富管理人員的戰略財務決策所驅動的。

Bitwise’s estimates factor in $120 billion in cumulative institutional inflows into Bitcoin in 2025 and another $300 billion in 2026, assuming a benchmark BTC price of $100,000. Those inflows would bring the institutional share of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin supply to more than 20%.

Bitwise的估計，假設BTC的基準BTC價格為100,000美元，BTC的累計機構累計機構流入了比特幣，而在2026年累計3000億美元。這些流入將使比特幣固定的2100萬硬幣供應的機構份額達到20％以上。

“We’re entering an era where Bitcoin isn’t just an investment—it’s becoming a balance-sheet imperative. From nation-states to Wall Street wirehouses, everyone is eyeing Bitcoin as a strategic asset,” the Bitwise analysts wrote.

Bitwise分析師寫道：“我們進入了一個時代，比特幣不僅是一項投資，而且是一項平衡表的要求。從民族國家到華爾街的線索，每個人都將比特幣視為戰略資產。”

The firm’s report focuses on five key groups of institutional buyers: nation-states, public companies, U.S. states, wealth management platforms, and sovereign wealth funds.

該公司的報告著重於五個主要的機構買家群體：民族國家，上市公司，美國州，財富管理平台和主權財富基金。

According to Bitwise, the U.S. government already has 198,000 BTC in federal custody. If new legislation like the BITCOIN Act is passed, the analyst projects that that number could increase by 200,000 BTC annually for the next five years.

根據Bitwise的說法，美國政府已經擁有198,000 BTC在聯邦拘留中。如果通過了《比特幣法》這樣的新立法，則分析師預計，在未來五年內，該數字每年可能每年增加200,000 BTC。

Corporations, too, are accelerating adoption. Public companies hold over 600,000 BTC, and Bitwise expects that number to nearly double by 2026. One notable newcomer is Twenty-One, a Bitcoin-native public company backed by Teighter and SoftBank, which is launching with over 42,000 BTC on its balance sheet.

公司也正在加速採用。上市公司持有超過600,000個BTC，Bitwise預計到2026年，這個數字將幾乎翻一番。一個值得注意的新人是21位，這是一家由Teighter and Softbank支持的比特幣本地上市公司，該公司在其資產負債表上以超過42,000的BTC推出。

The firm also pointed to recent accounting rule changes by the Financial Accounting Standards Board in the corporate sector as a major tailwind. Those rules allow companies to mark Bitcoin holdings at fair market value, incentivizing broader adoption.

該公司還指出，公司部門的財務會計標準委員會的最新會計規則變化是主要的逆風。這些規則允許公司以公平的市場價值標記比特幣持有量，從而激勵更廣泛的採用。

Wealth management firms, which Bitwise calls “the sleeping giants,” are also waking up. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and other firms managing a combined $60 trillion in assets are beginning to greenlight Bitcoin ETFs. If even 0.5% of that wealth shifts into BTC, that alone would account for over 3 million coins, or about 14% of the total supply.

財富管理公司稱為“沉睡巨人”，也正在醒來。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley），高盛（Goldman Sachs）和其他管理60萬億美元資產的公司開始綠燈比特幣ETF。如果即使有0.5％的財富轉移到BTC，僅此一項就將佔300萬個硬幣，約佔總供應量的14％。

Perhaps most strikingly, Bitwise predicts that central banks will also begin integrating Bitcoin in response to inflation and geopolitical instability. The report models a scenario where 5% of global gold reserves are converted into Bitcoin, resulting in 1.6 million BTC moving to state treasuries.

也許最引人注目的是，Bitwise預測，中央銀行還將開始響應通貨膨脹和地緣政治不穩定而開始整合比特幣。該報告對一個場景進行了模擬，其中5％的全球黃金儲量轉化為比特幣，導致160萬BTC轉向州國庫。

At the state level, more than a dozen U.S. states are exploring Bitcoin reserve strategies. Texas, Arizona and New Hampshire have already passed legislation, and states like Ohio and North Carolina are considering similar moves.

在州一級，美國十多個州正在探索比特幣儲備戰略。德克薩斯州，亞利桑那州和新罕布什爾州已經通過了立法，俄亥俄州和北卡羅來納州等州也在考慮採取類似的行動。

If the Bitwise forecasts are correct, they would permanently alter Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, setting the stage for scarcity and potentially explosive price movement.

如果位預測是正確的，它們將永久改變比特幣的供應動態，為稀缺性和潛在爆炸性價格轉移奠定了基礎。

“These aren’t short-term trades. Institutions accumulating Bitcoin today are preparing for a world where it becomes a global reserve standard,” the Bitwise analysts concluded.

“這些不是短期交易。今天積累比特幣的機構正在為成為全球儲備標準的世界做準備。”