机构投资者有望在2026年持有比特币总供应的20％

根据Crypto Investment公司Bitwise的周四报告，机构投资者有望持有比特币总供应的惊人的20％

Crypto investment firm Bitwise predicts that institutional investors will come to hold 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply, or about 4.2 million BTC, by the end of 2026, according to a Thursday report.

根据周四的报告，加密投资公司（Crypto Investment Firm）预测，到2026年底，机构投资者将持有比特币总供应量的20％，即约420万BTC。

The new projection highlights a chapter in Bitcoin adoption that isn’t being driven by retail enthusiasm or tech innovation but rather by strategic financial decisions from governments, corporations, and wealth managers.

新的预测强调了比特币采用的一章，而不是由零售热情或技术创新所驱动，而是由政府，公司和财富管理人员的战略财务决策所驱动的。

Bitwise’s estimates factor in $120 billion in cumulative institutional inflows into Bitcoin in 2025 and another $300 billion in 2026, assuming a benchmark BTC price of $100,000. Those inflows would bring the institutional share of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin supply to more than 20%.

Bitwise的估计，假设BTC的基准BTC价格为100,000美元，BTC的累计机构累计机构流入了比特币，而在2026年累计3000亿美元。这些流入将使比特币固定的2100万硬币供应的机构份额达到20％以上。

“We’re entering an era where Bitcoin isn’t just an investment—it’s becoming a balance-sheet imperative. From nation-states to Wall Street wirehouses, everyone is eyeing Bitcoin as a strategic asset,” the Bitwise analysts wrote.

Bitwise分析师写道：“我们进入了一个时代，比特币不仅是一项投资，而且是一项平衡表的要求。从民族国家到华尔街的线索，每个人都将比特币视为战略资产。”

The firm’s report focuses on five key groups of institutional buyers: nation-states, public companies, U.S. states, wealth management platforms, and sovereign wealth funds.

该公司的报告着重于五个主要的机构买家群体：民族国家，上市公司，美国州，财富管理平台和主权财富基金。

According to Bitwise, the U.S. government already has 198,000 BTC in federal custody. If new legislation like the BITCOIN Act is passed, the analyst projects that that number could increase by 200,000 BTC annually for the next five years.

根据Bitwise的说法，美国政府已经拥有198,000 BTC在联邦拘留中。如果通过了《比特币法》这样的新立法，则分析师预计，在未来五年内，该数字每年可能每年增加200,000 BTC。

Corporations, too, are accelerating adoption. Public companies hold over 600,000 BTC, and Bitwise expects that number to nearly double by 2026. One notable newcomer is Twenty-One, a Bitcoin-native public company backed by Teighter and SoftBank, which is launching with over 42,000 BTC on its balance sheet.

公司也正在加速采用。上市公司持有超过600,000个BTC，Bitwise预计到2026年，这个数字将几乎翻一番。一个值得注意的新人是21位，这是一家由Teighter and Softbank支持的比特币本地上市公司，该公司在其资产负债表上以超过42,000的BTC推出。

The firm also pointed to recent accounting rule changes by the Financial Accounting Standards Board in the corporate sector as a major tailwind. Those rules allow companies to mark Bitcoin holdings at fair market value, incentivizing broader adoption.

该公司还指出，公司部门的财务会计标准委员会的最新会计规则变化是主要的逆风。这些规则允许公司以公平的市场价值标记比特币持有量，从而激励更广泛的采用。

Wealth management firms, which Bitwise calls “the sleeping giants,” are also waking up. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and other firms managing a combined $60 trillion in assets are beginning to greenlight Bitcoin ETFs. If even 0.5% of that wealth shifts into BTC, that alone would account for over 3 million coins, or about 14% of the total supply.

财富管理公司称为“沉睡巨人”，也正在醒来。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley），高盛（Goldman Sachs）和其他管理60万亿美元资产的公司开始绿灯比特币ETF。如果即使有0.5％的财富转移到BTC，仅此一项就将占300万个硬币，约占总供应量的14％。

Perhaps most strikingly, Bitwise predicts that central banks will also begin integrating Bitcoin in response to inflation and geopolitical instability. The report models a scenario where 5% of global gold reserves are converted into Bitcoin, resulting in 1.6 million BTC moving to state treasuries.

也许最引人注目的是，Bitwise预测，中央银行还将开始响应通货膨胀和地缘政治不稳定而开始整合比特币。该报告对一个场景进行了模拟，其中5％的全球黄金储量转化为比特币，导致160万BTC转向州国库。

At the state level, more than a dozen U.S. states are exploring Bitcoin reserve strategies. Texas, Arizona and New Hampshire have already passed legislation, and states like Ohio and North Carolina are considering similar moves.

在州一级，美国十多个州正在探索比特币储备战略。德克萨斯州，亚利桑那州和新罕布什尔州已经通过了立法，俄亥俄州和北卡罗来纳州等州也在考虑采取类似的行动。

If the Bitwise forecasts are correct, they would permanently alter Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, setting the stage for scarcity and potentially explosive price movement.

如果位预测是正确的，它们将永久改变比特币的供应动态，为稀缺性和潜在爆炸性价格转移奠定了基础。

“These aren’t short-term trades. Institutions accumulating Bitcoin today are preparing for a world where it becomes a global reserve standard,” the Bitwise analysts concluded.

“这些不是短期交易。今天积累比特币的机构正在为成为全球储备标准的世界做准备。”