Institutional Investors Are On Track to Hold 20% of Bitcoin's Total Supply by 2026

According to a Thursday report from crypto investment firm Bitwise, institutional investors are on track to hold a staggering 20% of Bitcoin's total supply

Crypto investment firm Bitwise predicts that institutional investors will come to hold 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply, or about 4.2 million BTC, by the end of 2026, according to a Thursday report.

The new projection highlights a chapter in Bitcoin adoption that isn’t being driven by retail enthusiasm or tech innovation but rather by strategic financial decisions from governments, corporations, and wealth managers.

Bitwise’s estimates factor in $120 billion in cumulative institutional inflows into Bitcoin in 2025 and another $300 billion in 2026, assuming a benchmark BTC price of $100,000. Those inflows would bring the institutional share of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin supply to more than 20%.

“We’re entering an era where Bitcoin isn’t just an investment—it’s becoming a balance-sheet imperative. From nation-states to Wall Street wirehouses, everyone is eyeing Bitcoin as a strategic asset,” the Bitwise analysts wrote.

The firm’s report focuses on five key groups of institutional buyers: nation-states, public companies, U.S. states, wealth management platforms, and sovereign wealth funds.

According to Bitwise, the U.S. government already has 198,000 BTC in federal custody. If new legislation like the BITCOIN Act is passed, the analyst projects that that number could increase by 200,000 BTC annually for the next five years.

Corporations, too, are accelerating adoption. Public companies hold over 600,000 BTC, and Bitwise expects that number to nearly double by 2026. One notable newcomer is Twenty-One, a Bitcoin-native public company backed by Teighter and SoftBank, which is launching with over 42,000 BTC on its balance sheet.

The firm also pointed to recent accounting rule changes by the Financial Accounting Standards Board in the corporate sector as a major tailwind. Those rules allow companies to mark Bitcoin holdings at fair market value, incentivizing broader adoption.

Wealth management firms, which Bitwise calls “the sleeping giants,” are also waking up. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and other firms managing a combined $60 trillion in assets are beginning to greenlight Bitcoin ETFs. If even 0.5% of that wealth shifts into BTC, that alone would account for over 3 million coins, or about 14% of the total supply.

Perhaps most strikingly, Bitwise predicts that central banks will also begin integrating Bitcoin in response to inflation and geopolitical instability. The report models a scenario where 5% of global gold reserves are converted into Bitcoin, resulting in 1.6 million BTC moving to state treasuries.

At the state level, more than a dozen U.S. states are exploring Bitcoin reserve strategies. Texas, Arizona and New Hampshire have already passed legislation, and states like Ohio and North Carolina are considering similar moves.

If the Bitwise forecasts are correct, they would permanently alter Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, setting the stage for scarcity and potentially explosive price movement.

“These aren’t short-term trades. Institutions accumulating Bitcoin today are preparing for a world where it becomes a global reserve standard,” the Bitwise analysts concluded.