美國政府可能是比特幣最大的持有人之一

根據Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes的說法，這種情況不太可能很快改變。在5月1日的最近採訪中

The U.S. government may be one of the largest holders of Bitcoin, but according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. In a recent interview on May 1, Hayes said the chances of the U.S. significantly increasing its Bitcoin reserves are slim, considering national debt concerns and the cultural image tied to Bitcoin investors.

美國政府可能是比特幣最大的持有人之一，但根據Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes的說法，這種情況不太可能很快改變。海斯在最近的一次採訪中說，考慮到國家債務的關注以及與比特幣投資者相關的文化形象，美國的比特幣儲量顯著增加了其比特幣儲備的機會。

Discussing President Trump’s executive order to explore a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, Hayes argued that while the country technically holds nearly 200,000 BTC, mostly seized through high-profile criminal cases involving Silk Road and Bitfinex, it’s politically and economically impractical for the country to actively purchase more Bitcoin.

海耶斯討論特朗普總統的行政命令探索美國戰略比特幣儲備，但海耶斯認為，儘管該國持有近200,000 BTC的持有，但主要是通過涉及絲綢之路和Bitfinex的備受矚目的刑事案件抓住的，但在政治上和經濟上，該國在政治上和經濟上都不切實際地購買更多的比特幣。

“The United States is a deficit country. The only way they can do a strategic reserve is by not selling the Bitcoin they took from people. Fine, that’s 200,000 Bitcoin. But they’re not going to expand it,” Hayes stated.

“美國是一個赤字國家。他們做一個戰略儲備的唯一途徑是不出售他們從人身上拿走的比特幣。好的，那是200,000比特幣。但是他們不會擴大它，”海斯說。

He added that expanding those reserves through direct purchases would be nearly impossible for any elected official to justify, especially in an era of rising fiscal scrutiny. According to Hayes, the public perception of Bitcoin, often associated with speculative trading and crypto party culture, makes it political suicide.

他補充說，通過直接購買來擴大這些儲備幾乎是任何民選官員都不可能證明是合理的，尤其是在財政審查的時代。據海斯說，公眾對比特幣的看法通常與投機性貿易和加密黨文化有關，使其自殺。

“Try explaining to voters why you’re printing more money to buy Bitcoin, especially when the popular narrative is a bunch of BTC bros going to the club. Is that really what you want people to think about your policy?”

“嘗試向選民解釋為什麼您要打印更多的錢來購買比特幣，尤其是當流行的敘述是一堆BTC兄弟去俱樂部的時候。這真的是您希望人們對您的政策的看法嗎？”

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Surge and Altcoin Rally

亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）預測比特幣激增和Altcoin Rally

However, despite this bleak outlook, Hayes' comments come on the heels of a surprising development. Former President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at exploring the creation of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve. While some in the crypto community viewed it as a signal of long-term government support, others, including Hayes, dismissed it as more symbolic than actionable.

然而，儘管有這種黯淡的前景，海耶斯的評論是出乎意料的發展。前總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）簽署了一項行政命令，旨在探索創建美國戰略比特幣儲備。儘管加密貨幣社區中的一些人將其視為長期政府支持的信號，但包括海斯在內的其他人則認為它比可行的更像徵性。

Yet, despite Hayes' skepticism, the announcement has fueled debate about whether the U.S. will eventually join other nations in actively acquiring BTC as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.

然而，儘管海斯懷疑了，但該公告仍激發了關於美國是否最終將與其他國家積極收購BTC的辯論，以此作為抵制通貨膨脹和經濟不穩定的對沖。

Turning to the broader crypto market, Hayes expressed confidence in the resurgence of Bitcoin dominance. He believes the market is heading back to pre-2021 dynamics, with BTC reclaiming its position as the market leader before altcoins begin their rally.

海耶斯轉向更廣泛的加密市場，對比特幣優勢的複興表達了信心。他認為，市場正在回到2021年以前的動態，而BTC在Altcoins開始集會之前就重新獲得了市場領導者的地位。

“It’s back at all-time highs; bull markets are back, and altcoins should outperform. Should is the keyword depends on what you buy.”

“它在歷史最高時期都回來了；牛市又回來了，山寨幣的表現應該勝過。應該關鍵字取決於您購買的東西。”

Bitcoin dominance currently sits at 64.78%, up from under 60% at the start of 2025.

當前比特幣優勢佔64.78％，高於2025年初的60％。

Hayes expects a return of 70%, though not all analysts agree. Benjamin Cowen argues that BTC is unlikely to regain that level of dominance, while CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes traditional indicators of altcoin season are meaningless. He points instead to stablecoin and fiat inflow data as more accurate indicators in today's market.

海耶斯預計還會有70％的回報，儘管並非所有分析師都同意。本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）認為，BTC不太可能重新獲得這種統治地位，而加密首席執行官Ki Young Ju認為，Altcoin季節的傳統指標毫無意義。他指出，在當今市場上，他指出，穩定率和法定流入數據是更準確的指標。

According to Ju, the significant inflow into stablecoin and fiat exchanges suggests a preference for altcoins over Bitcoin. This aligns with the observation that the market usually moves in cycles, pivoting from one asset class to another.

根據JU的說法，進入穩定幣和菲亞特交換的大量流入表明偏愛替代幣而不是比特幣。這與市場通常以周期移動，從一個資產類別到另一個資產類別的觀察結果一致。

"The surge in altcoin trading volume isn't driven by $BTC pairs but by stablecoin and fiat pairs, reflecting real market growth rather than asset rotation.

“ Altcoin交易量的激增不是由$ BTC對的驅動，而是由Stablecoin和Fiat Pairs驅動，反映了實際的市場增長而不是資產旋轉。

Stablecoin liquidity better explains the altcoin markets," Ju noted.

Stablecoin流動性更好地解釋了Altcoin市場，” Ju指出。

MicroStrategy Expands Bitcoin Buying

MicroStrategy擴大比特幣購買

While the U.S. government remains hesitant, the private sector is forging ahead. Michael Saylor’s firm, MicroStrategy, has dramatically expanded its capital-raising plans to purchase more BTC.

儘管美國政府仍然猶豫，但私營部門仍在提前。邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的公司MicroStrategy大大擴展了其購買更多BTC的資本累積計劃。

The Virginia-based company revealed it is nearly quadrupling its equity raise to $84 billion, filing to sell an additional $21 billion in shares after already exhausting its previous allocation. It also increased its debt issuance target from $21 billion to $42 billion, leaving just under $15 billion in unused capacity.

這家總部位於弗吉尼亞州的公司透露，它的股權將其股權提高到840億美元，並在已經用盡了先前的分配後申請出售210億美元的股票。它還將債務發行目標從210億美元增加到420億美元，造成不到150億美元的未使用產能。

This aggressive strategy reflects a broader trend among public companies. In Q1 2025 alone, institutional BTC holdings grew by 16.1%, highlighting a sustained appetite for digital assets despite ongoing market volatility.

這種積極的戰略反映了上市公司的更廣泛趨勢。僅第1季度，僅第1季度，機構BTC持有量增長了16.1％，儘管市場波動持續不斷，但仍強調了對數字資產的持續需求。