美国政府可能是比特币最大的持有人之一

根据Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes的说法，这种情况不太可能很快改变。在5月1日的最近采访中

The U.S. government may be one of the largest holders of Bitcoin, but according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. In a recent interview on May 1, Hayes said the chances of the U.S. significantly increasing its Bitcoin reserves are slim, considering national debt concerns and the cultural image tied to Bitcoin investors.

美国政府可能是比特币最大的持有人之一，但根据Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes的说法，这种情况不太可能很快改变。海斯在最近的一次采访中说，考虑到国家债务的关注以及与比特币投资者相关的文化形象，美国的比特币储量显着增加了其比特币储备的机会。

Discussing President Trump’s executive order to explore a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, Hayes argued that while the country technically holds nearly 200,000 BTC, mostly seized through high-profile criminal cases involving Silk Road and Bitfinex, it’s politically and economically impractical for the country to actively purchase more Bitcoin.

海耶斯讨论特朗普总统的行政命令探索美国战略比特币储备，但海耶斯认为，尽管该国持有近200,000 BTC的持有，但主要是通过涉及丝绸之路和Bitfinex的备受瞩目的刑事案件抓住的，但在政治上和经济上，该国在政治上和经济上都不切实际地购买更多的比特币。

“The United States is a deficit country. The only way they can do a strategic reserve is by not selling the Bitcoin they took from people. Fine, that’s 200,000 Bitcoin. But they’re not going to expand it,” Hayes stated.

“美国是一个赤字国家。他们做一个战略储备的唯一途径是不出售他们从人身上拿走的比特币。好的，那是200,000比特币。但是他们不会扩大它，”海斯说。

He added that expanding those reserves through direct purchases would be nearly impossible for any elected official to justify, especially in an era of rising fiscal scrutiny. According to Hayes, the public perception of Bitcoin, often associated with speculative trading and crypto party culture, makes it political suicide.

他补充说，通过直接购买来扩大这些储备几乎是任何民选官员都不可能证明是合理的，尤其是在财政审查的时代。据海斯说，公众对比特币的看法通常与投机性贸易和加密党文化有关，使其自杀。

“Try explaining to voters why you’re printing more money to buy Bitcoin, especially when the popular narrative is a bunch of BTC bros going to the club. Is that really what you want people to think about your policy?”

“尝试向选民解释为什么您要打印更多的钱来购买比特币，尤其是当流行的叙述是一堆BTC兄弟去俱乐部的时候。这真的是您希望人们对您的政策的看法吗？”

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Surge and Altcoin Rally

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测比特币激增和Altcoin Rally

However, despite this bleak outlook, Hayes' comments come on the heels of a surprising development. Former President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at exploring the creation of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve. While some in the crypto community viewed it as a signal of long-term government support, others, including Hayes, dismissed it as more symbolic than actionable.

然而，尽管有这种黯淡的前景，海耶斯的评论是出乎意料的发展。前总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）签署了一项行政命令，旨在探索创建美国战略比特币储备。尽管加密货币社区中的一些人将其视为长期政府支持的信号，但包括海斯在内的其他人则认为它比可行的更象征性。

Yet, despite Hayes' skepticism, the announcement has fueled debate about whether the U.S. will eventually join other nations in actively acquiring BTC as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.

然而，尽管海斯怀疑了，但该公告仍激发了关于美国是否最终将与其他国家积极收购BTC的辩论，以此作为抵制通货膨胀和经济不稳定的对冲。

Turning to the broader crypto market, Hayes expressed confidence in the resurgence of Bitcoin dominance. He believes the market is heading back to pre-2021 dynamics, with BTC reclaiming its position as the market leader before altcoins begin their rally.

海耶斯转向更广泛的加密市场，对比特币优势的复兴表达了信心。他认为，市场正在回到2021年以前的动态，而BTC在Altcoins开始集会之前就重新获得了市场领导者的地位。

“It’s back at all-time highs; bull markets are back, and altcoins should outperform. Should is the keyword depends on what you buy.”

“它在历史最高时期都回来了；牛市又回来了，山寨币的表现应该胜过。应该关键字取决于您购买的东西。”

Bitcoin dominance currently sits at 64.78%, up from under 60% at the start of 2025.

当前比特币优势占64.78％，高于2025年初的60％。

Hayes expects a return of 70%, though not all analysts agree. Benjamin Cowen argues that BTC is unlikely to regain that level of dominance, while CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes traditional indicators of altcoin season are meaningless. He points instead to stablecoin and fiat inflow data as more accurate indicators in today's market.

海耶斯预计还会有70％的回报，尽管并非所有分析师都同意。本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）认为，BTC不太可能重新获得这种统治地位，而加密首席执行官Ki Young Ju认为，Altcoin季节的传统指标毫无意义。他指出，在当今市场上，他指出，稳定率和法定流入数据是更准确的指标。

According to Ju, the significant inflow into stablecoin and fiat exchanges suggests a preference for altcoins over Bitcoin. This aligns with the observation that the market usually moves in cycles, pivoting from one asset class to another.

根据JU的说法，进入稳定币和菲亚特交换的大量流入表明偏爱替代币而不是比特币。这与市场通常以周期移动，从一个资产类别到另一个资产类别的观察结果一致。

"The surge in altcoin trading volume isn't driven by $BTC pairs but by stablecoin and fiat pairs, reflecting real market growth rather than asset rotation.

“ Altcoin交易量的激增不是由$ BTC对的驱动，而是由Stablecoin和Fiat Pairs驱动，反映了实际的市场增长而不是资产旋转。

Stablecoin liquidity better explains the altcoin markets," Ju noted.

Stablecoin流动性更好地解释了Altcoin市场，” Ju指出。

MicroStrategy Expands Bitcoin Buying

MicroStrategy扩大比特币购买

While the U.S. government remains hesitant, the private sector is forging ahead. Michael Saylor’s firm, MicroStrategy, has dramatically expanded its capital-raising plans to purchase more BTC.

尽管美国政府仍然犹豫，但私营部门仍在提前。迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的公司MicroStrategy大大扩展了其购买更多BTC的资本累积计划。

The Virginia-based company revealed it is nearly quadrupling its equity raise to $84 billion, filing to sell an additional $21 billion in shares after already exhausting its previous allocation. It also increased its debt issuance target from $21 billion to $42 billion, leaving just under $15 billion in unused capacity.

这家总部位于弗吉尼亚州的公司透露，它的股权将其股权提高到840亿美元，并在已经用尽了先前的分配后申请出售210亿美元的股票。它还将债务发行目标从210亿美元增加到420亿美元，造成不到150亿美元的未使用产能。

This aggressive strategy reflects a broader trend among public companies. In Q1 2025 alone, institutional BTC holdings grew by 16.1%, highlighting a sustained appetite for digital assets despite ongoing market volatility.

这种积极的战略反映了上市公司的更广泛趋势。仅第1季度，仅第1季度，机构BTC持有量增长了16.1％，尽管市场波动持续不断，但仍强调了对数字资产的持续需求。