黃金預計將實現十多年來最佳年度表現，上漲 28%

根據世界黃金協會最近發布的《2025 年黃金展望》報告，黃金有望迎來十多年來最好的年度表現，上漲約 28%。

Gold is on track for its best annual performance in more than a decade, up some 28%, according to the World Gold Council’s recently released Gold Outlook 2025 report.

根據世界黃金協會最近發布的《2025 年黃金展望》報告，黃金有望創下十多年來最好的年度表現，上漲約 28%。

“Central bank and investor buying have more than offset a notable deceleration in consumer demand,” according to the trade association’s market analysis.

該行業協會的市場分析顯示，「央行和投資者的購買行為足以抵消消費者需求的顯著下降」。

During calendar year 2024, the spot price for gold traded 22% higher than the previous calendar year, according to Gold Outlook 2025. The spot price of gold per troy ounce through the end of November 2024 averaged $2,366.

根據《2025 年黃金展望》，2024 年黃金現貨價格比前一年上漲 22%。

Gold reached 40 new record highs year to date, and total gold demand in the third quarter surpassed $100 billion in U.S. dollars for the first time, the report emphasized.

報告強調，今年以來金價創下40個新高，第三季黃金總需求首度突破1,000億美元。

“Investment demand, especially through over-the-counter transactions, was supported by an undercurrent of geopolitical risk and volatility in many regional financial markets,” according to the market analysis. “Central banks continued to add gold to reserves year to date, with buying picking up speed in early October. And, for most of the third quarter, Western investors flocked back to gold as central banks started cutting interest rates.”

市場分析稱：“投資需求，尤其是透過場外交易的需求，受到許多區域金融市場地緣政治風險和波動暗流的支撐。” 「今年以來，各國央行持續增加黃金儲備，十月初購買速度加快。而且，在第三季度的大部分時間裡，隨著各國央行開始降息，西方投資者紛紛湧向黃金。

The world’s largest markets for gold are China and India. The Asian continent accounts for more than 60% of the world’s investment demand, excluding central banks.

全球最大的黃金市場是中國和印度。亞洲大陸佔全球投資需求的60%以上（不包括央行）。

“While central bank demand will likely end the year below previous records, it has remained strong, positively contributing to gold’s performance to the tune of 7% to 10%,” the report said.

報告稱，“雖然央行的需求可能會在今年年底低於之前的記錄，但仍保持強勁，對黃金的表現產生了 7% 至 10% 的積極貢獻。”

“Equally, central banks will remain an important part of the puzzle. Central bank buying is policy driven and thus difficult to forecast, but our surveys and analysis suggest that the current trend will remain in place. In our view, demand in excess of 500 [metric] tonnes (the approximate long-term trend) should still have a net positive effect on performance. And we believe central bank demand in 2025 will surpass that.

「同樣，央行仍將是這個難題的重要組成部分。央行購買是政策驅動的，因此很難預測，但我們的調查和分析表明，當前的趨勢將保持不變。我們認為，超過 500 公噸的需求（大致的長期趨勢）仍應對業績產生淨正面影響。我們相信 2025 年央行的需求將超過這個數字。

“But a deceleration below that level could bring additional pressures to gold.”

“但減速至低於該水平可能會給金價帶來額外壓力。”

To receive a free download of the complete analysis, register with the World Gold Council online at gold.org.

要免費下載完整分析，請在世界黃金協會網站 gold.org 上註冊。