黄金有望实现十多年来最佳年度表现，上涨 28%

根据世界黄金协会最近发布的《2025 年黄金展望》报告，黄金有望迎来十多年来最好的年度表现，上涨约 28%。

Gold is on track for its best annual performance in more than a decade, up some 28%, according to the World Gold Council’s recently released Gold Outlook 2025 report.

根据世界黄金协会最近发布的《2025 年黄金展望》报告，黄金有望创下十多年来最好的年度表现，上涨约 28%。

“Central bank and investor buying have more than offset a notable deceleration in consumer demand,” according to the trade association’s market analysis.

该行业协会的市场分析显示，“央行和投资者的购买行为足以抵消消费者需求的显着下降”。

During calendar year 2024, the spot price for gold traded 22% higher than the previous calendar year, according to Gold Outlook 2025. The spot price of gold per troy ounce through the end of November 2024 averaged $2,366.

根据《2025 年黄金展望》，2024 年黄金现货价格比上年上涨 22%。截至 2024 年 11 月底，每金衡盎司黄金现货价格平均为 2,366 美元。

Gold reached 40 new record highs year to date, and total gold demand in the third quarter surpassed $100 billion in U.S. dollars for the first time, the report emphasized.

报告强调，今年以来金价创下40个新高，第三季度黄金总需求首次突破1000亿美元。

“Investment demand, especially through over-the-counter transactions, was supported by an undercurrent of geopolitical risk and volatility in many regional financial markets,” according to the market analysis. “Central banks continued to add gold to reserves year to date, with buying picking up speed in early October. And, for most of the third quarter, Western investors flocked back to gold as central banks started cutting interest rates.”

市场分析称：“投资需求，尤其是通过场外交易的需求，受到许多区域金融市场地缘政治风险和波动暗流的支撑。” “今年以来，各国央行继续增加黄金储备，十月初购买速度加快。而且，在第三季度的大部分时间里，随着各国央行开始降息，西方投资者纷纷涌向黄金。”

The world’s largest markets for gold are China and India. The Asian continent accounts for more than 60% of the world’s investment demand, excluding central banks.

全球最大的黄金市场是中国和印度。亚洲大陆占全球投资需求的60%以上（不包括央行）。

“While central bank demand will likely end the year below previous records, it has remained strong, positively contributing to gold’s performance to the tune of 7% to 10%,” the report said.

报告称，“虽然央行的需求可能会在今年年底低于之前的记录，但仍保持强劲，对黄金的表现产生了 7% 至 10% 的积极贡献。”

“Equally, central banks will remain an important part of the puzzle. Central bank buying is policy driven and thus difficult to forecast, but our surveys and analysis suggest that the current trend will remain in place. In our view, demand in excess of 500 [metric] tonnes (the approximate long-term trend) should still have a net positive effect on performance. And we believe central bank demand in 2025 will surpass that.

“同样，央行仍将是这个难题的重要组成部分。央行购买是政策驱动的，因此很难预测，但我们的调查和分析表明，当前的趋势将保持不变。我们认为，超过 500 公吨的需求（大致的长期趋势）仍应对业绩产生净积极影响。我们相信 2025 年央行的需求将超过这一数字。

“But a deceleration below that level could bring additional pressures to gold.”

“但减速至低于该水平可能会给金价带来额外压力。”

To receive a free download of the complete analysis, register with the World Gold Council online at gold.org.

要免费下载完整分析，请在世界黄金协会网站 gold.org 上注册。