Glassnode 推出偵測比特幣市場底部的框架

Glassnode 最新的鏈上分析平台利用創新指標來確定比特幣投資者的投降點和潛在的市場底部。透過專注於短期持有者 (STH) 行為，Glassnode 可以準確地檢測到潛在賣家耗盡頭寸的超賣情況，同時買家需求增加，從而形成當地市場低點。

Glassnode Unveils Innovative Framework to Identify Bitcoin Market Bottoms

Glassnode 推出創新框架來識別比特幣市場底部

Introduction

介紹

In the ever-evolving realm of cryptocurrency markets, discerning market sentiment and identifying potential turning points is crucial for informed decision-making. To address this need, Glassnode, a leading blockchain analytics platform, has unveiled a groundbreaking framework that empowers investors with the ability to pinpoint moments of investor capitulation, a key indicator of market bottoms.

在不斷發展的加密貨幣市場領域，洞察市場情緒並識別潛在的轉折點對於做出明智的決策至關重要。為了滿足這一需求，領先的區塊鏈分析平台 Glassnode 推出了一個突破性的框架，使投資者能夠準確定位投資者投降的時刻，這是市場觸底的關鍵指標。

Capitulation and Market Cycles

投降和市場週期

Bitcoin's bull markets are characterized by periods of sustained price appreciation, interspersed with phases of correction. During these downturns, investors, both long-term and short-term, may incur losses due to the volatility inherent to the market. However, Glassnode's analysis reveals a distinct pattern in the behavior of these investor groups.

比特幣牛市的特點是價格持續上漲，期間穿插調整階段。在經濟低迷時期，長期和短期投資者都可能因市場固有的波動而蒙受損失。然而，Glassnode 的分析揭示了這些投資者群體的行為的獨特模式。

Long-term holders (LTHs), typically defined as those who hold their Bitcoin for extended periods, primarily experience losses during broader market slowdowns. In contrast, short-term holders (STHs), who engage in more frequent trading strategies, incur losses at various stages of the market cycle, contributing to the majority of losses during bull markets.

長期持有者（LTH）通常被定義為長期持有比特幣的人，他們主要在更廣泛的市場放緩期間遭受損失。相較之下，採用更頻繁交易策略的短期持有者（STH）在市場週期的各個階段都會遭受損失，是牛市期間大部分損失的原因。

Identifying Capitulation Points

確定投降點

Glassnode's framework focuses on analyzing the STH cohort, which includes both day traders and swing traders. By isolating this cohort, Glassnode aims to identify periods of capitulation, characterized by a large number of sellers exiting the market. These periods often coincide with buying pressure from new investors, forming a local market bottom.

Glassnode 的框架著重於分析 STH 群體，其中包括日間交易者和波段交易者。透過隔離這一群體，Glassnode 旨在識別投降時期，其特點是大量賣家退出市場。這些時期通常與新投資者的購買壓力同時發生，形成當地市場底部。

Key Indicators of Investor Pressure

投資者壓力的關鍵指標

To model the extreme financial pressure experienced by investors, Glassnode relies on three primary metrics:

為了模擬投資者所經歷的極端財務壓力，Glassnode 依賴三個主要指標：

1. MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio: This indicator compares the current market price of Bitcoin to the aggregate realized cost basis of all coins in circulation, providing insights into latent gains and losses.
2. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Ratio: The SOPR measures the average profit or loss realized on transactions, capturing the overall magnitude of realized profits and losses.
3. Realized Losses in USD: This metric tracks the total losses incurred by investors in USD terms, offering a direct measure of the financial impact of market volatility.

Specific Indicators for Day Traders and Swing Traders

MVRV（市場價值與已實現價值）比率：此指標將比特幣的當前市場價格與所有流通貨幣的總已實現成本基礎進行比較，提供對潛在收益和損失的洞察。比率：SOPR衡量交易中實現的平均利潤或損失，捕捉已實現利潤和損失的總體規模。 。

Day traders, known for their sensitivity to price fluctuations, exhibit rapid oscillations in their MVRV ratio. Glassnode highlights moments when the MVRV Z-Score (a statistical measure of deviation from the mean) falls below -1σ (sigma), indicating statistically significant selling pressure.

日間交易者以對價格波動敏感而聞名，其 MVRV 比率表現出快速波動。 Glassnode 重點介紹了 MVRV Z 分數（偏離平均值的統計指標）低於 -1σ (sigma) 的時刻，顯示統計上存在顯著的拋售壓力。

Swing traders, who typically hold their Bitcoin for slightly longer periods, show a more gradual evolution of the MVRV ratio. However, the same methodology can confirm the spread of selling pressure to longer horizons.

波動交易者通常持有比特幣的時間稍長，他們的 MVRV 比率的演變更為漸進。然而，同樣的方法可以確認拋售壓力向更長期的範圍擴散。

Combining Indicators for Micro-Capitulation Identification

結合微投降識別指標

By combining these three profitability indicators, Glassnode identifies micro-capitulation points, which are often accompanied by local market bottoms. This framework provides valuable insights into the incentives and actions of market participants during phases of capitulation.

透過結合這三個獲利指標，Glassnode 確定了微投降點，這些點通常伴隨著當地市場的底部。該框架為市場參與者在投降階段的激勵和行動提供了寶貴的見解。

Conclusion

結論

Glassnode's groundbreaking framework empowers investors with a sophisticated tool to navigate the intricacies of the Bitcoin market. By leveraging on-chain data and employing a rigorous methodology, this framework enables investors to identify moments of market capitulation, a critical signal for discerning potential market bottoms. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, Glassnode's framework will undoubtedly remain an indispensable tool for informed decision-making and successful investment strategies.

Glassnode 的開創性框架為投資者提供了一個複雜的工具來駕馭錯綜複雜的比特幣市場。透過利用鏈上數據並採用嚴格的方法，該框架使投資者能夠識別市場投降的時刻，這是辨別潛在市場底部的關鍵信號。隨著加密貨幣市場的不斷發展，Glassnode 的框架無疑仍將是明智決策和成功投資策略不可或缺的工具。