Glassnode 推出检测比特币市场底部的框架

Glassnode 最新的链上分析平台利用创新指标来确定比特币投资者的投降点和潜在的市场底部。通过关注短期持有者 (STH) 行为，Glassnode 可以准确地检测到潜在卖家耗尽头寸的超卖情况，同时买家需求增加，从而形成当地市场低点。

Glassnode Unveils Innovative Framework to Identify Bitcoin Market Bottoms

Glassnode 推出创新框架来识别比特币市场底部

Introduction

介绍

In the ever-evolving realm of cryptocurrency markets, discerning market sentiment and identifying potential turning points is crucial for informed decision-making. To address this need, Glassnode, a leading blockchain analytics platform, has unveiled a groundbreaking framework that empowers investors with the ability to pinpoint moments of investor capitulation, a key indicator of market bottoms.

在不断发展的加密货币市场领域，洞察市场情绪并识别潜在的转折点对于做出明智的决策至关重要。为了满足这一需求，领先的区块链分析平台 Glassnode 推出了一个突破性的框架，使投资者能够准确定位投资者投降的时刻，这是市场触底的关键指标。

Capitulation and Market Cycles

投降和市场周期

Bitcoin's bull markets are characterized by periods of sustained price appreciation, interspersed with phases of correction. During these downturns, investors, both long-term and short-term, may incur losses due to the volatility inherent to the market. However, Glassnode's analysis reveals a distinct pattern in the behavior of these investor groups.

比特币牛市的特点是价格持续上涨，期间穿插着调整阶段。在经济低迷时期，长期和短期投资者都可能因市场固有的波动而蒙受损失。然而，Glassnode 的分析揭示了这些投资者群体的行为的独特模式。

Long-term holders (LTHs), typically defined as those who hold their Bitcoin for extended periods, primarily experience losses during broader market slowdowns. In contrast, short-term holders (STHs), who engage in more frequent trading strategies, incur losses at various stages of the market cycle, contributing to the majority of losses during bull markets.

长期持有者（LTH）通常被定义为长期持有比特币的人，他们主要在更广泛的市场放缓期间遭受损失。相比之下，采用更频繁交易策略的短期持有者（STH）在市场周期的各个阶段都会遭受损失，是牛市期间大部分损失的原因。

Identifying Capitulation Points

确定投降点

Glassnode's framework focuses on analyzing the STH cohort, which includes both day traders and swing traders. By isolating this cohort, Glassnode aims to identify periods of capitulation, characterized by a large number of sellers exiting the market. These periods often coincide with buying pressure from new investors, forming a local market bottom.

Glassnode 的框架侧重于分析 STH 群体，其中包括日内交易者和波段交易者。通过隔离这一群体，Glassnode 旨在识别投降时期，其特点是大量卖家退出市场。这些时期通常与新投资者的购买压力同时发生，形成当地市场底部。

Key Indicators of Investor Pressure

投资者压力的关键指标

To model the extreme financial pressure experienced by investors, Glassnode relies on three primary metrics:

为了模拟投资者所经历的极端财务压力，Glassnode 依赖于三个主要指标：

1. MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio: This indicator compares the current market price of Bitcoin to the aggregate realized cost basis of all coins in circulation, providing insights into latent gains and losses.
2. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Ratio: The SOPR measures the average profit or loss realized on transactions, capturing the overall magnitude of realized profits and losses.
3. Realized Losses in USD: This metric tracks the total losses incurred by investors in USD terms, offering a direct measure of the financial impact of market volatility.

Specific Indicators for Day Traders and Swing Traders

MVRV（市场价值与已实现价值）比率：该指标将比特币的当前市场价格与所有流通货币的总已实现成本基础进行比较，提供对潜在收益和损失的洞察。SOPR（支出产出利润率）比率：SOPR衡量交易中实现的平均利润或损失，捕捉已实现利润和损失的总体规模。以美元计价的已实现损失：该指标跟踪投资者以美元计算的总损失，直接衡量市场波动的财务影响。日内交易者和波段交易者的具体指标

Day traders, known for their sensitivity to price fluctuations, exhibit rapid oscillations in their MVRV ratio. Glassnode highlights moments when the MVRV Z-Score (a statistical measure of deviation from the mean) falls below -1σ (sigma), indicating statistically significant selling pressure.

日间交易者以对价格波动敏感而闻名，其 MVRV 比率表现出快速波动。 Glassnode 重点介绍了 MVRV Z 得分（偏离平均值的统计指标）低于 -1σ (sigma) 的时刻，表明统计上存在显着的抛售压力。

Swing traders, who typically hold their Bitcoin for slightly longer periods, show a more gradual evolution of the MVRV ratio. However, the same methodology can confirm the spread of selling pressure to longer horizons.

波动交易者通常持有比特币的时间稍长，他们的 MVRV 比率的演变更为渐进。然而，同样的方法可以确认抛售压力向更长期的范围扩散。

Combining Indicators for Micro-Capitulation Identification

结合微投降识别指标

By combining these three profitability indicators, Glassnode identifies micro-capitulation points, which are often accompanied by local market bottoms. This framework provides valuable insights into the incentives and actions of market participants during phases of capitulation.

通过结合这三个盈利指标，Glassnode 确定了微投降点，这些点通常伴随着当地市场的底部。该框架为市场参与者在投降阶段的激励和行动提供了宝贵的见解。

Conclusion

结论

Glassnode's groundbreaking framework empowers investors with a sophisticated tool to navigate the intricacies of the Bitcoin market. By leveraging on-chain data and employing a rigorous methodology, this framework enables investors to identify moments of market capitulation, a critical signal for discerning potential market bottoms. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, Glassnode's framework will undoubtedly remain an indispensable tool for informed decision-making and successful investment strategies.

Glassnode 的开创性框架为投资者提供了一个复杂的工具来驾驭错综复杂的比特币市场。通过利用链上数据并采用严格的方法，该框架使投资者能够识别市场投降的时刻，这是辨别潜在市场底部的关键信号。随着加密货币市场的不断发展，Glassnode 的框架无疑仍将是明智决策和成功投资策略不可或缺的工具。