FOMC 將評估經濟，預計 9 月將降息

明天，隨著聯邦公開市場委員會成員分析美國經濟數據，人們的注意力將集中在美國央行和聯準會主席鮑威爾身上。

The U.S. central bank will be in the spotlight on Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will evaluate the latest U.S. economic data and decide whether to adjust the federal funds rate. The decision will be closely watched by market participants, including equity investors, precious metals supporters, and cryptocurrency enthusiasts.

週三，聯準會將成為焦點，聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)成員將評估美國最新經濟數據，並決定是否調整聯邦基金利率。這項決定將受到市場參與者的密切關注，包括股票投資者、貴金屬支持者和加密貨幣愛好者。

Attention will be focused on the FOMC members as they analyze U.S. economic data and decide whether to keep the rate unchanged, increase it, or reduce it. Speaking with the Associated Press, Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, said Fed members “want to be very gradual in how they pull back.”

人們的注意力將集中在聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)成員身上，他們將分析美國經濟數據並決定是維持利率不變、升息還是降息。道明證券(TD Securities)美國利率策略主管根納迪·戈德堡(Gennadiy Goldberg)在接受美聯社採訪時表示，美聯儲成員“希望非常漸進地退出。”

“But if the labor market actually looks like it’s slowing down,” Goldberg said, the central bank might start to move “a little bit quicker than they otherwise would.”

戈德伯格表示：「但如果勞動市場實際上看起來正在放緩，」央行可能會開始「比原本快一點」採取行動。

As of Tuesday, shortly after the U.S. stock market closed, the CME Fedwatch tool indicates a minimal likelihood of a rate cut in July. The tool shows a 95.9% probability that the central bank will maintain the current rate, with only 4.1% anticipating a 25 basis points (bps) reduction.

截至週二，美國股市收盤後不久，芝商所 Fedwatch 工具顯示 7 月降息的可能性極小。該工具顯示，央行維持當前利率的可能性為 95.9%，只有 4.1% 的人預計將降息 25 個基點 (bps)。

For September, the Fedwatch tool’s forecast shifts, showing an 85.8% chance of a 25bps cut and a 13.8% possibility of a 50bps reduction. According to CNBC’s Jeff Cox, the market expects the Fed to keep the rate steady in July, but he notes that “there are expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will drop signals that as long as there are no major data hiccups, a September move is very much on the table.”

對於 9 月份，Fedwatch 工具的預測發生變化，顯示降息 25 個基點的可能性為 85.8%，降息 50 個基點的可能性為 13.8%。根據CNBC 的傑夫考克斯(Jeff Cox) 報道，市場預計聯準會將在7 月份維持利率穩定，但他指出，「預計聯邦公開市場委員會將放棄訊號，即只要沒有重大數據出現問題，9 月份的舉措非常重要。

The Fed’s decision and Powell’s post-meeting comments to the press will be closely followed by market watchers. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 ended the day with gains, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced declines.

市場觀察家將密切關注聯準會的決定和鮑威爾會後向媒體發表的言論。週二，道瓊工業指數和羅素 2000 指數收盤上漲，而那斯達克指數和標準普爾 500 指數則下跌。

The cryptocurrency market overall has decreased by 1.78% against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, while both gold and silver have bucked the trend, each seeing gains of more than 1% over the past day. The current target range for the federal funds rate is 5.25-5.5%, marking the highest level in 23 years.

週二，加密貨幣市場兌美元整體下跌1.78%，黃金和白銀則逆勢上漲，過去一天漲幅均超過1%。目前聯邦基金利率目標區間為5.25-5.5%，為23年來最高水準。