FOMC 将评估经济，预计 9 月降息

明天，随着联邦公开市场委员会成员分析美国经济数据，人们的注意力将集中在美国央行和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔身上。

The U.S. central bank will be in the spotlight on Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will evaluate the latest U.S. economic data and decide whether to adjust the federal funds rate. The decision will be closely watched by market participants, including equity investors, precious metals supporters, and cryptocurrency enthusiasts.

周三，美联储将成为焦点，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员将评估美国最新经济数据，并决定是否调整联邦基金利率。这一决定将受到市场参与者的密切关注，包括股票投资者、贵金属支持者和加密货币爱好者。

Attention will be focused on the FOMC members as they analyze U.S. economic data and decide whether to keep the rate unchanged, increase it, or reduce it. Speaking with the Associated Press, Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, said Fed members “want to be very gradual in how they pull back.”

人们的注意力将集中在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员身上，他们将分析美国经济数据并决定是维持利率不变、加息还是降息。道明证券(TD Securities)美国利率策略主管根纳迪·戈德堡(Gennadiy Goldberg)在接受美联社采访时表示，美联储成员“希望非常渐进地退出。”

“But if the labor market actually looks like it’s slowing down,” Goldberg said, the central bank might start to move “a little bit quicker than they otherwise would.”

戈德伯格表示：“但如果劳动力市场实际上看起来正在放缓，”央行可能会开始“比原本要快一点”采取行动。

As of Tuesday, shortly after the U.S. stock market closed, the CME Fedwatch tool indicates a minimal likelihood of a rate cut in July. The tool shows a 95.9% probability that the central bank will maintain the current rate, with only 4.1% anticipating a 25 basis points (bps) reduction.

截至周二，美国股市收盘后不久，芝商所 Fedwatch 工具显示 7 月份降息的可能性极小。该工具显示，央行维持当前利率的可能性为 95.9%，只有 4.1% 的人预计降息 25 个基点 (bps)。

For September, the Fedwatch tool’s forecast shifts, showing an 85.8% chance of a 25bps cut and a 13.8% possibility of a 50bps reduction. According to CNBC’s Jeff Cox, the market expects the Fed to keep the rate steady in July, but he notes that “there are expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will drop signals that as long as there are no major data hiccups, a September move is very much on the table.”

对于 9 月份，Fedwatch 工具的预测发生变化，显示降息 25 个基点的可能性为 85.8%，降息 50 个基点的可能性为 13.8%。据 CNBC 的杰夫·考克斯 (Jeff Cox) 报道，市场预计美联储将在 7 月份维持利率稳定，但他指出，“预计联邦公开市场委员会将放弃信号，即只要没有重大数据出现问题，9 月份的举措非常重要。”

The Fed’s decision and Powell’s post-meeting comments to the press will be closely followed by market watchers. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 ended the day with gains, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced declines.

市场观察人士将密切关注美联储的决定和鲍威尔会后向媒体发表的言论。周二，道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素 2000 指数收盘上涨，而纳斯达克指数和标准普尔 500 指数则下跌。

The cryptocurrency market overall has decreased by 1.78% against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, while both gold and silver have bucked the trend, each seeing gains of more than 1% over the past day. The current target range for the federal funds rate is 5.25-5.5%, marking the highest level in 23 years.

周二，加密货币市场兑美元整体下跌1.78%，而黄金和白银则逆势上涨，过去一天涨幅均超过1%。目前联邦基金利率目标区间为5.25-5.5%，为23年来最高水平。