美國美聯儲會議：沒有預期的比率變化，所有人都關注杰羅姆·鮑威爾的新聞發布會

隨著下一次美國美聯儲在5月7日拐角處，交易者和分析師似乎就一件事達成共識：這次幾乎沒有機會加息或削減。

With the next U.S. Federal Reserve meeting just around the corner on May 7, traders and analysts seem to agree on one thing: there’s almost no chance of a rate hike or cut this time. But that doesn’t mean the market is calm, far from it.

隨著下一次美國美聯儲在5月7日拐角處，交易者和分析師似乎就一件事達成共識：這次幾乎沒有機會加息或削減。但這並不意味著市場很平靜，遠非如此。

After an aggressive series of interest rate increases to combat inflation, the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight lending rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, where it has been since December 2022.

在積極的一系列利率增加到對抗通貨膨脹後，美聯儲有望將基準的過夜貸款利率保持在5.25％至5.50％的範圍內，這是自2022年12月以來一直處於的。

This period also marks the highest level for interest rates in over two decades, showcasing the central bank’s determination to quell inflation, which has slowly begun to cool from the 40-year highs reached in 2022.

這一時期還標誌著二十年來利率的最高水平，展示了中央銀行平息通貨膨脹的決心，從2022年到達的40年高點開始逐漸冷卻。

May: No Change Expected

5月：沒有預期的變化

According to Polymarket, a prediction market, there is a 98% chance that the Fed won’t change rates at its May meeting. On the other hand, another possibility is that there is a 2% chance of a 25 bps drop being seen in May.

預測市場Polymarket稱，美聯儲在5月會議上不會改變率的可能性98％。另一方面，另一種可能性是，五月份有25％的機會下降25個基點。

The market is closely watching the Payrolls data on Friday for any hints at the upcoming Fed move. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. economy to have added 180,000 jobs in April, slowing from March’s stellar gain of 236,000.

週五，市場正在密切關注薪資數據，以了解即將到來的美聯儲舉動。路透社進行的經濟學家預計，美國經濟將在4月增加18萬個就業機會，這減緩了3月的出色收益236,000。

If the data shows a slowdown in hiring, it could increase the anticipation for a rate cut. However, if job growth remains strong, it might push the Fed to keep rates higher for a longer period.

如果數據顯示招聘放緩，則可能會增加對降低稅率的預期。但是，如果工作增長仍然強勁，它可能會促使美聯儲在更長的時間內保持更高的利率。

June: A Turning Point?

六月：轉折點？

Looking ahead to June, the possibility of the Fed cutting rates is being priced in, with a 72% chance that the Fed won’t change rates at its June meeting, according to MenaՎԱmarket. Further market odds suggest about a 25% chance of a 25% bps rate cut, and that number could rise if job growth slows or inflation drops further.

據MENAվա市場稱，展望未來6月，美聯儲削減率的可能性是72％的機會，即美聯儲在6月的會議上不會改變費率。進一步的市場賠率表明，降低了25％的BPS率約25％的機會，如果工作增長速度減慢或通貨膨脹率進一步下降，這一數字可能會上升。

This makes upcoming reports on inflation and jobs critical. A weak job report or softer consumer price data could tip the balance toward a rate cut.

這是關於通貨膨脹和工作至關重要的即將到來的報告。弱工作報告或較軟的消費者價格數據可能會使平衡降低降低。

On the other hand, if inflation stays sticky, the Fed might stick to its current stance or even start talking about keeping rates high for longer.

另一方面，如果通貨膨脹保持粘性，美聯儲可能會堅持其當前的立場，甚至開始談論更長的時間。

Powell’s Tone Matters More Than Ever

鮑威爾的語氣比以往任何時候都重要

Interestingly, the market may react more to what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says than to what the Fed does. If he talks too tough, using phrases like “persistent inflation” or “not enough progress,” markets could sell off sharply.

有趣的是，市場可能對美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）所說的比對美聯儲的作用更大。如果他說話太艱難了，使用“持續通貨膨脹”或“不夠進步”之類的短語，市場可能會急劇出售。

Tech stocks and rate-sensitive sectors might drop, bond yields could rise fast, the U.S. dollar might gain strength, and assets like Bitcoin or gold could lose steam.

技術股票和對費率敏感的部門可能會下降，債券收益率可能會迅速上升，美元可能會帶來實力，並且像比特幣或黃金這樣的資產可能會失去蒸汽。