美国美联储会议：没有预期的比率变化，所有人都关注杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会

随着下一次美国美联储在5月7日拐角处，交易者和分析师似乎就一件事达成共识：这次几乎没有机会加息或削减。

With the next U.S. Federal Reserve meeting just around the corner on May 7, traders and analysts seem to agree on one thing: there’s almost no chance of a rate hike or cut this time. But that doesn’t mean the market is calm, far from it.

随着下一次美国美联储在5月7日拐角处，交易者和分析师似乎就一件事达成共识：这次几乎没有机会加息或削减。但这并不意味着市场很平静，远非如此。

After an aggressive series of interest rate increases to combat inflation, the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight lending rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, where it has been since December 2022.

在积极的一系列利率增加到对抗通货膨胀后，美联储有望将基准的过夜贷款利率保持在5.25％至5.50％的范围内，这是自2022年12月以来一直处于的。

This period also marks the highest level for interest rates in over two decades, showcasing the central bank’s determination to quell inflation, which has slowly begun to cool from the 40-year highs reached in 2022.

这一时期还标志着二十年来利率的最高水平，展示了中央银行平息通货膨胀的决心，从2022年到达的40年高点开始逐渐冷却。

May: No Change Expected

5月：没有预期的变化

According to Polymarket, a prediction market, there is a 98% chance that the Fed won’t change rates at its May meeting. On the other hand, another possibility is that there is a 2% chance of a 25 bps drop being seen in May.

预测市场Polymarket称，美联储在5月会议上不会改变率的可能性98％。另一方面，另一种可能性是，五月份有25％的机会下降25个基点。

The market is closely watching the Payrolls data on Friday for any hints at the upcoming Fed move. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. economy to have added 180,000 jobs in April, slowing from March’s stellar gain of 236,000.

周五，市场正在密切关注薪资数据，以了解即将到来的美联储举动。路透社进行的经济学家预计，美国经济将在4月增加18万个就业机会，这减缓了3月的出色收益236,000。

If the data shows a slowdown in hiring, it could increase the anticipation for a rate cut. However, if job growth remains strong, it might push the Fed to keep rates higher for a longer period.

如果数据显示招聘放缓，则可能会增加对降低税率的预期。但是，如果工作增长仍然强劲，它可能会促使美联储在更长的时间内保持更高的利率。

June: A Turning Point?

六月：转折点？

Looking ahead to June, the possibility of the Fed cutting rates is being priced in, with a 72% chance that the Fed won’t change rates at its June meeting, according to MenaՎԱmarket. Further market odds suggest about a 25% chance of a 25% bps rate cut, and that number could rise if job growth slows or inflation drops further.

据MENAվա市场称，展望未来6月，美联储削减率的可能性是72％的机会，即美联储在6月的会议上不会改变费率。进一步的市场赔率表明，降低了25％的BPS率约25％的机会，如果工作增长速度减慢或通货膨胀率进一步下降，这一数字可能会上升。

This makes upcoming reports on inflation and jobs critical. A weak job report or softer consumer price data could tip the balance toward a rate cut.

这是关于通货膨胀和工作至关重要的即将到来的报告。弱工作报告或较软的消费者价格数据可能会使平衡降低降低。

On the other hand, if inflation stays sticky, the Fed might stick to its current stance or even start talking about keeping rates high for longer.

另一方面，如果通货膨胀保持粘性，美联储可能会坚持其当前的立场，甚至开始谈论更长的时间。

Powell’s Tone Matters More Than Ever

鲍威尔的语气比以往任何时候都重要

Interestingly, the market may react more to what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says than to what the Fed does. If he talks too tough, using phrases like “persistent inflation” or “not enough progress,” markets could sell off sharply.

有趣的是，市场可能对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）所说的比对美联储的作用更大。如果他说话太艰难了，使用“持续通货膨胀”或“不够进步”之类的短语，市场可能会急剧出售。

Tech stocks and rate-sensitive sectors might drop, bond yields could rise fast, the U.S. dollar might gain strength, and assets like Bitcoin or gold could lose steam.

技术股票和对费率敏感的部门可能会下降，债券收益率可能会迅速上升，美元可能会带来实力，并且像比特币或黄金这样的资产可能会失去蒸汽。