以太坊可能已經達到了對比特幣的決定性轉折點

ETH/BTC的價格比在上周達到了2020年1月以來的最低水平後上漲了38％。這一戲劇性的發展是否可以預示期待已久的新“ Altcoin賽季”的開始？

According to a recent report by CryptoQuant, Ethereum (ETH) may have finally started putting in decisive turning point against bitcoin (BTC).

根據CryptoQuant的最新報告，以太坊（ETH）可能最終開始對比特幣（BTC）提出決定性的轉折點。

The ETH/BTC price ratio soared 38% last week after hitting its lowest level since January 2020.

ETH/BTC價格比上周達到了自2020年1月以來的最低水平後飆升了38％。

Could this dramatic development be signaling the long-awaited start of a new "altcoin season"?

這一戲劇性的發展能否表明新的“ Altcoin季節”期待已久的開始？

Technical Signals Confirm a Possible Trend Reversal

技術信號證實了可能的趨勢逆轉

According to researchers from CryptoQuant, Ethereum is currently being massively undervalued compared to bitcoin.

據加密素養的研究人員稱，與比特幣相比，以太坊目前被低估了。

The ETH/BTC MVRV indicator (Market Value to Realized Value), which compares the current market value to the average acquisition value of the two cryptos, has reached a low level not seen since 2019.

ETH/BTC MVRV指標（市場價值與已實現價值的市場價值）將當前的市場價值與兩個加密貨幣的平均獲取價值進行了比較，自2019年以來就已經達到了低水平。

This detail is crucial because the last time this indicator hit such lows, Ethereum subsequently experienced an exceptional growth period against bitcoin.

這個細節至關重要，因為上次該指標擊中了這樣的低點時，以太坊隨後經歷了針對比特幣的特殊增長期。

"The last time the ETH/BTC MVRV reached such low levels was during the 2019-2021 bull market. After hitting lows in late 2019, ETH experienced a relative outperformance against BTC, with its price multiplying by four compared to bitcoin during that period, ” explained CryptoQuant researchers.

“上次ETH/BTC MVRV達到如此低的水平是在2019-2021牛市。在2019年底達到低點之後，ETH經歷了針對BTC的相對優於BTC的表現，其價格與該時期的比特幣相比，其價格乘以四，” Cryptoquant QuantoQuantoQuantoquin QuantoQuanto QuantoQuantoQuins。

Moreover, trading between ETH and BTC is intensifying significantly. The volume ratio reached 0.89 last week, a record since August 2024.

此外，ETH與BTC之間的交易正在大大加劇。自2024年8月以來，上週的體積比率達到了0.89。

To put this in perspective, this means traders are increasingly positioning themselves on Ethereum rather than bitcoin.

從角度來看，這意味著交易者越來越多地將自己定位在以太坊而不是比特幣上。

CryptoQuant experts see a striking similarity with the 2019-2021 period.

加密專家看到與2019 - 2021年時期的相似之處。

Specifically, during that period, the ETH/BTC price ratio rose from about 0.02 to over 0.08, reflecting a massive outperformance of Ethereum against bitcoin.

具體而言，在此期間，ETH/BTC的價格比從約0.02上升到0.08以上，反映出對比特幣的以太坊的表現較高。

This trend appears to be continuing, and if the price ratio manages to break out of its 365-day moving average, it could signal a decisive shift in favor of Ethereum.

這種趨勢似乎正在持續，如果價格比設法擺脫了365天的移動平均線，則可能標誌著決定性的轉變，以支持以太坊。

Ethereum’s price has already been rebounding for several weeks, a sign that investors are regaining confidence in its potential.

以太坊的價格已經彈起了幾週，這表明投資者正在重新獲得其潛力的信心。

At the time of writing this article, it trades at $2,347, up 57% in one month.

在撰寫本文時，它的交易價格為2,347美元，一個月內增長了57％。

Peter Brandt, a well-known technical analyst, recently changed his stance on Ethereum, shifting from a bearish outlook to a bullish projection with a potential target of 4,000 dollars.

著名的技術分析師彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）最近改變了他對以太坊的立場，從看跌前景轉變為看漲的預測，潛在的目標是4,000美元。

This optimism is shared by other market participants, who are closely following the signals of large institutional investors.

這種樂觀情緒是由其他市場參與者共享的，他們緊隨大型機構投資者的信號。

Institutional Interest and Decreased Selling Pressure Fuel Optimism

機構利益和銷售壓力燃料樂觀的減少

Large institutional investors are massively returning to Ethereum. The proof ? Ethereum ETFs have been recording continuous growth in assets under management since the end of April.

大型機構投資者正在大規模返回以太坊。證明？自4月底以來，以太坊ETF一直在記錄管理資產的持續增長。

This renewed interest is no coincidence: it coincides with the announcement of major technical upgrades such as EIP-7928, which promises to significantly improve network performance.

這種新的興趣並非偶然：它與EIP-7928這樣的主要技術升級的宣布相吻合，EIP-7928有望顯著提高網絡性能。

A particularly encouraging signal comes from CryptoQuant’s data on ETH movements: transfers to exchanges are at their lowest since 2020.

一個特別令人鼓舞的信號來自加密素養的ETH運動數據：自2020年以來，交流的轉移處於最低水平。

This metric is essential to understanding market dynamics.

該指標對於理解市場動態至關重要。

When less ETH arrives on exchanges, it means holders are less inclined to sell their tokens, thus reducing the downward pressure on the price.

當交流少的ETH到達時，這意味著持有人不太傾向於出售其令牌，從而降低了價格的下降壓力。

The ETF holdings ratio and price ratio of ETH/BTC are increasing simultaneously, a sign that institutional investors are rebalancing their portfolios in favor of Ethereum.

ETH/BTC的ETF持有率和價格比正在同時增加，這表明機構投資者正在重新平衡其投資組合，以支持以太坊。

This trend is accompanied by major technical developments such as the recent proposal for parallel transaction execution on Layer 1, which could fundamentally transform the network architecture.

這種趨勢伴隨著主要的技術發展，例如第1層對並行交易執行的最新提案，這可能從根本上改變網絡體系結構。

However, CryptoQuant analysts remain cautious. To definitively confirm this trend reversal, a major technical hurdle must still be overcome: the ETH/BTC ratio must exceed its 365-day moving average.

但是，加密分析師仍然謹慎。為了確定這種趨勢逆轉，仍然必須克服重大的技術障礙：ETH/BTC比率必須超過其365天的移動平均線。

Simply put, Ethereum must maintain its outperformance against bitcoin over a sufficiently long period to validate this new bull cycle. If this condition is met, we could witness sustained growth for Ethereum in the coming months.

簡而言之，以太坊必須在足夠長的時間內維持對比特幣的表現，以驗證這一新的牛週期。如果滿足這種情況，我們可以在未來幾個月內見證以太坊的持續增長。

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