以太坊可能已经达到了对比特币的决定性转折点

ETH/BTC的价格比在上周达到了2020年1月以来的最低水平后上涨了38％。这一戏剧性的发展是否可以预示期待已久的新“ Altcoin赛季”的开始？

According to a recent report by CryptoQuant, Ethereum (ETH) may have finally started putting in decisive turning point against bitcoin (BTC).

根据CryptoQuant的最新报告，以太坊（ETH）可能最终开始对比特币（BTC）提出决定性的转折点。

The ETH/BTC price ratio soared 38% last week after hitting its lowest level since January 2020.

ETH/BTC价格比上周达到了自2020年1月以来的最低水平后飙升了38％。

Could this dramatic development be signaling the long-awaited start of a new "altcoin season"?

这一戏剧性的发展能否表明新的“ Altcoin季节”期待已久的开始？

Technical Signals Confirm a Possible Trend Reversal

技术信号证实了可能的趋势逆转

According to researchers from CryptoQuant, Ethereum is currently being massively undervalued compared to bitcoin.

据加密素养的研究人员称，与比特币相比，以太坊目前被低估了。

The ETH/BTC MVRV indicator (Market Value to Realized Value), which compares the current market value to the average acquisition value of the two cryptos, has reached a low level not seen since 2019.

ETH/BTC MVRV指标（市场价值与已实现价值的市场价值）将当前的市场价值与两个加密货币的平均获取价值进行了比较，自2019年以来就已经达到了低水平。

This detail is crucial because the last time this indicator hit such lows, Ethereum subsequently experienced an exceptional growth period against bitcoin.

这个细节至关重要，因为上次该指标击中了这样的低点时，以太坊随后经历了针对比特币的特殊增长期。

"The last time the ETH/BTC MVRV reached such low levels was during the 2019-2021 bull market. After hitting lows in late 2019, ETH experienced a relative outperformance against BTC, with its price multiplying by four compared to bitcoin during that period, ” explained CryptoQuant researchers.

“上次ETH/BTC MVRV达到如此低的水平是在2019-2021牛市。在2019年底达到低点之后，ETH经历了针对BTC的相对优于BTC的表现，其价格与该时期的比特币相比，其价格乘以四，” Cryptoquant QuantoQuantoQuantoquin QuantoQuanto QuantoQuantoQuins。

Moreover, trading between ETH and BTC is intensifying significantly. The volume ratio reached 0.89 last week, a record since August 2024.

此外，ETH与BTC之间的交易正在大大加剧。自2024年8月以来，上周的体积比率达到了0.89。

To put this in perspective, this means traders are increasingly positioning themselves on Ethereum rather than bitcoin.

从角度来看，这意味着交易者越来越多地将自己定位在以太坊而不是比特币上。

CryptoQuant experts see a striking similarity with the 2019-2021 period.

加密专家看到与2019 - 2021年时期的相似之处。

Specifically, during that period, the ETH/BTC price ratio rose from about 0.02 to over 0.08, reflecting a massive outperformance of Ethereum against bitcoin.

具体而言，在此期间，ETH/BTC的价格比从约0.02上升到0.08以上，反映出对比特币的以太坊的表现较高。

This trend appears to be continuing, and if the price ratio manages to break out of its 365-day moving average, it could signal a decisive shift in favor of Ethereum.

这种趋势似乎正在持续，如果价格比设法摆脱了365天的移动平均线，则可能标志着决定性的转变，以支持以太坊。

Ethereum’s price has already been rebounding for several weeks, a sign that investors are regaining confidence in its potential.

以太坊的价格已经弹起了几周，这表明投资者正在重新获得其潜力的信心。

At the time of writing this article, it trades at $2,347, up 57% in one month.

在撰写本文时，它的交易价格为2,347美元，一个月内增长了57％。

Peter Brandt, a well-known technical analyst, recently changed his stance on Ethereum, shifting from a bearish outlook to a bullish projection with a potential target of 4,000 dollars.

著名的技术分析师彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）最近改变了他对以太坊的立场，从看跌前景转变为看涨的预测，潜在的目标是4,000美元。

This optimism is shared by other market participants, who are closely following the signals of large institutional investors.

这种乐观情绪是由其他市场参与者共享的，他们紧随大型机构投资者的信号。

Institutional Interest and Decreased Selling Pressure Fuel Optimism

机构利益和销售压力燃料乐观的减少

Large institutional investors are massively returning to Ethereum. The proof ? Ethereum ETFs have been recording continuous growth in assets under management since the end of April.

大型机构投资者正在大规模返回以太坊。证明？自4月底以来，以太坊ETF一直在记录管理资产的持续增长。

This renewed interest is no coincidence: it coincides with the announcement of major technical upgrades such as EIP-7928, which promises to significantly improve network performance.

这种新的兴趣并非偶然：它与EIP-7928这样的主要技术升级的宣布相吻合，EIP-7928有望显着提高网络性能。

A particularly encouraging signal comes from CryptoQuant’s data on ETH movements: transfers to exchanges are at their lowest since 2020.

一个特别令人鼓舞的信号来自加密素养的ETH运动数据：自2020年以来，交流的转移处于最低水平。

This metric is essential to understanding market dynamics.

该指标对于理解市场动态至关重要。

When less ETH arrives on exchanges, it means holders are less inclined to sell their tokens, thus reducing the downward pressure on the price.

当交流少的ETH到达时，这意味着持有人不太倾向于出售其令牌，从而降低了价格的下降压力。

The ETF holdings ratio and price ratio of ETH/BTC are increasing simultaneously, a sign that institutional investors are rebalancing their portfolios in favor of Ethereum.

ETH/BTC的ETF持有率和价格比正在同时增加，这表明机构投资者正在重新平衡其投资组合，以支持以太坊。

This trend is accompanied by major technical developments such as the recent proposal for parallel transaction execution on Layer 1, which could fundamentally transform the network architecture.

这种趋势伴随着主要的技术发展，例如第1层对并行交易执行的最新提案，这可能从根本上改变网络体系结构。

However, CryptoQuant analysts remain cautious. To definitively confirm this trend reversal, a major technical hurdle must still be overcome: the ETH/BTC ratio must exceed its 365-day moving average.

但是，加密分析师仍然谨慎。为了确定这种趋势逆转，仍然必须克服重大的技术障碍：ETH/BTC比率必须超过其365天的移动平均线。

Simply put, Ethereum must maintain its outperformance against bitcoin over a sufficiently long period to validate this new bull cycle. If this condition is met, we could witness sustained growth for Ethereum in the coming months.

简而言之，以太坊必须在足够长的时间内维持对比特币的表现，以验证这一新的牛周期。如果满足这种情况，我们可以在未来几个月内见证以太坊的持续增长。

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