以太幣幣（ETH/BTC）比率已達到“極為被低估”的區域

以太幣幣（ETH/BTC）的比率已達到一個“極為被低估”的區域，此舉閃爍了歷史上看漲的信號

The ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio has reached an “extremely undervalued” zone in a move that flashes a historically bullish signal — but traders betting on a sharp ether (ETH) recovery may want to pause.

以太幣（ETH/BTC）的比率在閃爍歷史上看漲的信號的舉動中達到了一個“被低估的”區域，但是交易者下注急劇（ETH）恢復的恢復可能會暫停。

According to data from on-chain data firm CryptoQuant, the ETH/BTC market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has dropped to multi-year lows to reach levels that have previously marked periods of ETH outperformance against BTC.

根據鍊鍊數據公司加密徵的數據，ETH/BTC的市場價值（MVRV）比率已下降到多年低點，以達到以前標誌著對BTC的ETH ETH超出表現時期的水平。

The exchange rate for the two tokens, conventionally called a ratio, peaked above 0.08 in late 2021. The ETH/BTC ratio was 0.019 at press time, down more than 75% from record highs.

兩個令牌的匯率（通常稱為一個比率）在2021年末達到0.08的峰值。在發稿時，ETH/BTC的比率為0.019，比創紀錄高點下降了75％以上。

MVRV is a metric that compares a token’s current market cap to its realized capitalization, or the value of each coin based on the price it was last moved on the blockchain. This effectively reflects the average cost basis of all coins in circulation.

MVRV是一個指標，將令牌當前的市值與已實現的資本化或根據最後一次在區塊鏈上轉移的價格進行比較。這有效地反映了所有循環中所有硬幣的平均成本基礎。

But the setup may not be as straightforward this time. Network activity remains flat and core usage metrics like transaction count and active addresses have seen little momentum since the last bull run, CryptoQuant said.

但是這次設置可能並不那麼簡單。 CryptoQuant說，自上次公牛運行以來，網絡活動保持平坦，核心用法指標（如交易計數）幾乎沒有動力。

The increase in ether total supply is directly tied to the sharp decline in fees burned, as shown in the above chart, showing burn activity falling to near zero. The reason behind this shift is the Dencun upgrade, implemented in March 2024, which significantly reduces transaction fees across the network, the firm said.

如上圖中所示，以太總供應的增加直接與燃燒的費用急劇下降相關，顯示燃燒活性降至零接近。該公司表示，這一轉變的原因是Dencun升級於2024年3月實施，該升級大大降低了整個網絡的交易費用。

Ethereum’s network activity has remained largely flat since 2021, with no sustained growth in usage over the past three years. This stagnation is evident across key metrics such as transaction volume and active addresses, indicating that Ethereum’s base layer has not experienced significant expansion in on-chain activity.

自2021年以來，以太坊的網絡活動一直保持平坦，在過去三年中，使用情況沒有持續增長。在關鍵指標（例如交易量和主動地址）之間，這種停滯很明顯，這表明以太坊的基礎層在鏈上活性並沒有顯著擴展。

Meanwhile, the growth of Layer 2 solutions such as Arbitrum and Base has come at the cost of mainnet activity. This cannibalization dynamic reduces base layer fees and weakens ETH’s value accrual narrative.

同時，諸如仲裁和基礎等第2層解決方案的增長是以主網活動為代價的。這種動態化可以減少基本層費，並削弱ETH的價值應計敘述。

Institutional demand is also cooling: “Investor demand for ETH as a yield and institutional asset is weakening, as evidenced by declining staked ETH and lower balances held by ETFs and other investment vehicles,” CryptoQuant wrote.

機構需求也很冷卻：“投資者對ETH作為收益率和機構資產的需求正在削弱，這證明了固定的ETH和ETF和其他投資工具持有的較低餘額，” CryptoQuant寫道。

“The total value staked has fallen from its all-time high, while fund holdings continue to trend downward, indicating reduced confidence from crypto-native participants and traditional investors,” it added.

它補充說：“固定的總價值已經從其歷史最高的高處下降，而基金持有卻繼續向下趨勢，這表明加密本地參與者和傳統投資者的信心降低了。”

The amount of ETH staked has declined notably from it’s all-time high of 35.02 million ETH in November 2024 to around 34.4 million ETH, suggesting that investors may be reallocating capital or seeking more liquid positions amid a less favorable market environment.

ETH的數量已從2024年11月的歷史最高高點（3502萬）下降到約3440萬ETH，這表明投資者可能在市場環境中不太有利的資本或尋求更多的流動頭寸。

Additionally, ETH balances in investment products have fallen by about 400,000 ETH since early February, highlighting a broader decline in institutional demand.

此外，自2月初以來，投資產品中的ETH餘額減少了約40萬ETH，強調了機構需求的廣泛下降。