美元减弱，欧元增强

欧洲已经看到风暴，危机，怀疑来来去去。但是很少打开机会窗口。

In a surprising turn of events, the US dollar could be paving the way for the euro to become a major global currency, according to a recent analysis by Point de Situation.

根据Point de Conecon的最新分析，这笔事件令人惊讶的是，美元可能正在为欧元成为全球主要货币铺平道路。

The article highlights how Donald Trump’s administration has seen tariffs and economic provocations from the United States come and go, but rarely has such a large window of opportunity opened for Europe.

这篇文章强调了唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的政府如何看到美国的关税和经济挑衅来来去去，但很少为欧洲开放的机会窗口很大。

Since Donald Trump’s United States has been playing geopolitical roulette with tariffs and chaining economic provocations, a crack is forming in the armor of the king dollar. And in this breach, the euro, often mocked for its hesitations, could well invite itself to the table of the major global currencies. Even better, it could soon impose itself there.

自从唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的美国一直在与关税和链接经济挑衅一起演奏地缘政治轮盘赌以来，国王的装甲正在形成裂缝。在这种违规情况下，欧元经常因其犹豫而嘲笑，很可能会邀请自己进入主要的全球货币桌子。更好的是，它很快就会在那里强加自己。

The Dollar Weakens, the Euro Strengthens

美元减弱，欧元增强

Since Donald Trump’s inauguration, the dollar no longer shines as much. In April, the DXY index – which measures the strength of the greenback against major currencies – fell by 10%. A real slide fueled by the political whims of the White House and public criticisms against the Federal Reserve.

自唐纳德·特朗普的就职典礼以来，美元不再发光。 4月，DXY指数（衡量了针对主要货币的绿色野蛮人的强度）下降了10％。白宫的政治异想天开以及对美联储的公众批评的真正滑动。

Europe, thanks to its stability and investments, will benefit from the fall of the dollar.

由于其稳定和投资，欧洲将从美元衰落中受益。

This falling out with the dollar is pushing investors to rethink their cards. And guess who is about to play their ace? The euro. The single currency has never really been able to take advantage of its massive economic potential. But today, the cards are being reshuffled. If Europe seizes the moment, it can impose its currency as a global monetary pillar.

这笔钱跌倒了，促使投资者重新考虑他们的卡片。猜猜谁将扮演他们的王牌？欧元。单一货币从未真正能够利用其巨大的经济潜力。但是今天，卡片正在改组。如果欧洲抓住了这一时刻，它可以将其货币作为全球货币支柱。

Certainly, nothing is decided yet. The euro still lacks a “safe asset“, a safe haven equivalent to US Treasury bonds. This monetary grail, used as universal collateral, is sorely missing in the Old Continent. Yet the foundations are there: a strong European Central Bank, a banking sector of $34 trillion, 40% larger than that of the United States. That is no small matter.

当然，什么都没有决定。欧元仍然缺乏“安全资产”，这与美国财政部债券相当。这款货币圣杯被用作通用抵押品，在旧大陆上非常缺少。然而，基金会仍然存在：一个强大的欧洲央行，一个银行业，34万亿美元，比美国大40％。那不是小问题。

The Dream of a European Safe Asset: Mirage or Turning Point?

欧洲安全资产的梦想：海市rage楼还是转折点？

The big question is this: can the euro become a reserve currency without a worthy safe asset? So far, attempts have failed: the “stability bonds” of 2011, the “ESBies” of 2018, or even the post-Covid NextGenerationEU program – all suffered from a lack of political consensus. The idea of mutualized debt in the eurozone remains taboo for several capitals.

最大的问题是：欧元可以成为没有值得安全资产的储备货币吗？到目前为止，尝试失败了：2011年的“稳定债券”，2018年的“ Esbies”，甚至是后Covid Nextgenerateu计划 - 都遭受了缺乏政治共识的困扰。欧元区中互相债务的想法仍然是多个首都的禁忌。

But times are changing. Under the pressure of an unpredictable America, some dogmas are wavering. Germany itself, long champion of budgetary orthodoxy, has crossed a Rubicon by launching a massive defense and infrastructure plan funded by debt. And if this were only the beginning?

但是时代正在改变。在不可预测的美国的压力下，一些教条正在动摇。德国本身是预算正统的长期拥护者，他通过启动由债务资助的大规模国防和基础设施计划跨越了rubicon。如果这只是开始？

As the Institute of Liberties reminded us:

正如自由研究所提醒我们的那样：

There have been far more dollars for sale than euros to buy. […] And that’s why your daughter is mute, Molière would have said.

出售的钱比欧元要多得多。 […]这就是为什么您的女儿沉默寡言的原因，莫里埃（Molière）会说。

Simply put, flows are reversing. The euro is rising, the dollar is wavering, bitcoin persists, and the public, once skeptical, is beginning to believe in the potential of a strong European currency backed by a more integrated economic policy.

简而言之，流正在逆转。欧元正在上升，美元摇摆不定，比特币持续存在，公众曾经怀疑，开始相信以更综合的经济政策支持的强大欧洲货币的潜力。

Speculation is rampant. For the euro to impose itself, there will need to be a shock. What if this shock came not from finance, but from politics? As in 2020 with Covid, a crisis can sometimes accelerate changes more than a European summit. Perhaps Trump, in weakening the dollar, will inadvertently do a proud service to the currency he loves to hate.

猜测猖ramp。要使欧元强加自己，需要震惊。如果这种冲击不是来自财务，而是来自政治怎么办？与2020年的库维德一样，危机有时会加速变化，而不是欧洲峰会。也许特朗普（Trump）在削弱美元时，会无意中为他喜欢的仇恨货币做出骄傲的服务。

Capital, Confidence, and Competitiveness: Signals Turn Green

资本，信心和竞争力：信号变成绿色

Confidence is contagious, especially when it affects wallets. While Wall Street logs its worst sessions in two years, the euro benefits. Not only is the currency climbing, but capital follows. Large funds are repatriating their assets from America to reinvest them on European soil.

信心具有传染性，尤其是在影响钱包时。华尔街在两年内记录了最糟糕的会议，但欧元的利益。不仅攀岩货币，而且资本随之而来。大量资金正在将其从美国的资产遣返，以将其重新投资于欧洲土壤。

It’s a reversed domino effect: the imbalance on one side breathes life into the other.

这是一种反向的多米诺骨牌效应：一侧的失衡使生命呼吸到另一种。

The consequence? A euro flirting with peaks, gold shining like never before, and oil climbing, fueled by hopes (illusory?) of a Sino-American trade truce. Even European bonds are regaining color. The yield on German Bunds is slowly rising, evidence of renewed interest in the bloc’s sovereign debts.

结果？欧元的调情，山峰调情，黄金从未像以前一样闪闪发光，以及攀岩，攀岩是由中美洲贸易休战中的希望（虚幻？）推动的。甚至欧洲债券也正在恢复颜色。德国馆的收益越来越逐渐上升，这表明该集团的主权债务增加了兴趣。

And in all this upheaval, one question keeps coming up: can the euro take over from the dollar? For DerivativesProFR, the time may have come:

在所有这些动荡中，一个问题不断出现：欧元可以从美元中接管吗？对于衍生产品，时间可能到了：

The global markets […] seem to have found a new balance.

全球市场[…]似乎已经找到了新的平衡。

An equation that pleases investors seeking stability. And when the word “stability” rhymes with “Europe”, it means something has changed.

一个方程式使寻求稳定的投资者取悦投资者。当用“欧洲”押韵“稳定”一词时，这意味着发生了变化。

On the stock market too, the signs don’t lie. At every Wall Street crisis, Europe has sometimes managed to come out ahead. This was the case in 2001, in 2008 to a lesser extent, and today history might repeat itself. The recent Nasdaq drop combined with the euro’s revaluation of over 11% against the dollar shows that financial tectonic plates are shifting. So

在股票市场上，这些迹象也不会撒谎。在每一次华尔街的危机中，欧洲有时都设法领先。在2001年，在2008年的情况下，历史可能会重演。纳斯达克股票最近的下降与欧元的重估相对于美元的重新估价超过11％，这表明金融构造板正在变化。所以