加密貨幣修正：隨著市場降溫，比特幣和以太幣下跌

比特幣週六後的漲勢已經蒸發，週三交易時段跌破 6 萬美元。儘管早些時候恢復至 64,000 美元以上，但 BTC 在過去 24 小時內下跌了 3% 以上，達到 3 月初以來的最低點。以太幣也大幅下跌，跌破 3000 美元。低於 60,000 美元大關的出價表明該水平的強勁需求和潛在支撐。在上個月達到頂峰的反彈之後，加密貨幣市場正在經歷一段冷靜期，但比特幣投資者的行為表明，進一步的疲軟可能即將到來。

Bitcoin and Ethereum Slide Lower, Highlighting Cryptocurrency Market Correction

比特幣和以太幣下滑，凸顯加密貨幣市場調整

New York, April 17, 2022 - Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has erased all gains from its recent rebound, falling below the $60,000 mark in the early hours of Wednesday's U.S. trading session.

紐約，2022 年 4 月 17 日 - 全球市值最大的加密貨幣比特幣 (BTC) 抹去了近期反彈的所有漲幅，在周三美國交易時段早盤跌破 60,000 美元大關。

Sharp Market Drop

市場急劇下跌

Bitcoin had recovered to over $64,000 earlier in the day but has since plunged to a low of $59,900, a more than 3% decline in the last 24 hours. This marks Bitcoin's lowest price since early March, and at the time of writing, it was trading at $60,200.

當天早些時候，比特幣價格已回升至 64,000 美元以上，但此後暴跌至 59,900 美元的低點，過去 24 小時內跌幅超過 3%。這標誌著比特幣自 3 月初以來的最低價格，在撰寫本文時，其交易價格為 60,200 美元。

Ethereum Follows Suit

以太坊緊隨其後

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has also experienced significant losses, falling below $3,000 with a 2.5% decline during the same timeframe.

以市值計算的第二大加密貨幣以太幣 (ETH) 也經歷了重大損失，同期跌破 3,000 美元，跌幅為 2.5%。

Demand at $60k Level

需求達到 6 萬美元水平

Despite the downturn, on Binance, the most active trading pair for Bitcoin (BTC-USDT), the spot market order book shows a preponderance of bids under $60,000, exceeding the number of sell orders. This pattern suggests a robust demand at that price level, potentially preventing further declines in the short term.

儘管經濟低迷，但在比特幣 (BTC-USDT) 最活躍的交易對幣安上，現貨市場訂單簿顯示，60,000 美元以下的買盤占主導地位，超過了賣單數量。這種模式顯示在該價格水準上需求強勁，可能會阻止短期內進一步下跌。

Cooling-Off Period

冷靜期

The market downturn confirms that the cryptocurrency sector is undergoing a cooling-off period following a sustained rally that reached its peak last month. Bitcoin has shed over 15% since achieving its most recent all-time high, and some altcoins have retreated by 40% to 50% from their recent peaks. This type of retraction aligns with historical patterns observed in previous bull markets, according to data from Glassnode.

市場低迷證實，加密貨幣行業在上個月達到頂峰的持續上漲之後正在經歷一段冷靜期。自從達到最近的歷史高點以來，比特幣已經下跌了 15% 以上，一些山寨幣已經從最近的峰值回落了 40% 到 50%。根據 Glassnode 的數據，這種類型的回撤與先前在牛市中觀察到的歷史模式相符。

Investor Behavior and Market Outlook

投資者行為與市場前景

Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group, analyzes the behavior of Bitcoin investors and suggests that market weakness may persist. His market update on Wednesday highlights that blockchain data shows major Bitcoin holders are delaying increasing their stakes during the current dip, indicating potential further weakness or consolidation before a market rebound.

LMAX Group 市場策略師 Joel Kruger 分析了比特幣投資者的行為，並表示市場疲軟可能會持續下去。他週三的市場更新強調，區塊鏈數據顯示主要比特幣持有者在當前的下跌期間推遲了增持，這表明在市場反彈之前可能會進一步走軟或盤整。

Kruger emphasizes that a critical technical level for Bitcoin is $59,000, a major support zone that saw prices recover twice in March. If Bitcoin maintains above this level, it positions the cryptocurrency to potentially reach new highs and approach the $100,000 mark. Conversely, a decline below $59,000 could undermine the short-term bullish outlook and lead to a significant correction, potentially pushing prices down to the $45,000 to $50,000 range.

Kruger 強調，比特幣的關鍵技術水準是 59,000 美元，這是 3 月價格兩次回升的主要支撐區域。如果比特幣維持在這一水平之上，則該加密貨幣有可能創下新高並接近 10 萬美元大關。相反，跌破 59,000 美元可能會破壞短期看漲前景，並導致大幅調整，可能將價格推低至 45,000 美元至 50,000 美元區間。

Uniqueness of This Halving

本次減半的獨特性

Much debate has centered around the distinctiveness of this year's Bitcoin halving event compared to previous occurrences. Notably, the cryptocurrency's price peaked a month before the halving, a phenomenon not seen in earlier cycles.

許多爭論都集中在今年比特幣減半事件與以往事件相比的獨特性。值得注意的是，加密貨幣的價格在減半前一個月達到高峰，這種現像在早期週期中並沒有出現過。

Sam Callahan, a senior analyst at Swan Bitcoin, a firm specializing in Bitcoin financial services, observes that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a consolidation phase. He attributes the recent price fluctuations to short-term traders speculating on the results of the upcoming, much-anticipated halving event. Callahan advises investors to expect short-term volatility, but emphasizes that Bitcoin's long-term trajectory remains decidedly positive.

專門從事比特幣金融服務的公司 Swan Bitcoin 的高級分析師 Sam Callahan 觀察到，比特幣目前正在經歷整合階段。他將最近的價格波動歸因於短期交易者對即將到來的、備受期待的減半事件結果的猜測。卡拉漢建議投資者預期短期波動，但強調比特幣的長期軌跡仍然明顯樂觀。

Historical Trends and Goldman Sachs Caution

歷史趨勢和高盛的警告

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with price increases. Following the 2012 halving, the price of Bitcoin rose from $12 to $44 in 100 days and to $135 in 300 days. After the 2016 halving, the price increased from $658 to $1,551 over the same period. Most recently, in the 2020 halving, Bitcoin's price escalated from $8,601 to $50,941 within 300 days.

從歷史上看，比特幣減半與價格上漲有關。 2012 年減半後，比特幣的價格在 100 天內從 12 美元升至 44 美元，在 300 天內升至 135 美元。 2016年減半後，同期價格從658美元上漲至1,551美元。最近，在 2020 年減半期間，比特幣的價格在 300 天內從 8,601 美元升至 50,941 美元。

However, Goldman Sachs advises caution ahead of Bitcoin's next halving due to the unpredictable macroeconomic environment. The team from Goldman's Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) and Equities cautioned that while historical halvings have led to price increases, the duration to peak prices varied significantly, suggesting that past trends should not be blindly followed given the current macroeconomic conditions.

然而，由於宏觀經濟環境不可預測，高盛建議在比特幣下一次減半前保持謹慎。高盛固定收益、貨幣和商品（FICC）和股票團隊警告稱，雖然歷史減半導致價格上漲，但價格達到峰值的持續時間差異很大，這表明鑑於當前的宏觀經濟狀況，不應盲目追隨過去的趨勢。

Long-Term Bullishness

長期看漲

Amidst market volatility and investor anxiety, Rennick Palley, Founding Partner at crypto venture capital firm Stratos, remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He acknowledges the volatile period before the halving and previous price highs but views them as short-term hurdles that Bitcoin will overcome by mid-summer. Palley predicts that Bitcoin could potentially reach over $150,000 by 2025.

在市場波動和投資者焦慮的情況下，加密創投公司 Stratos 的創始合夥人 Rennick Palley 仍然看好比特幣的長期前景。他承認減半前的波動期和先前的價格高點，但認為它們是比特幣將在仲夏之前克服的短期障礙。 Palley 預測，到 2025 年，比特幣的價格可能會超過 15 萬美元。