加密货币修正：随着市场降温，比特币和以太坊下跌

比特币周六后的涨势已经蒸发，周三交易时段跌破 60,000 美元。尽管早些时候恢复至 64,000 美元以上，但 BTC 在过去 24 小时内下跌了 3% 以上，达到 3 月初以来的最低点。以太币也大幅下跌，跌破 3000 美元。低于 60,000 美元大关的出价表明该水平的强劲需求和潜在支撑。在上个月达到顶峰的反弹之后，加密货币市场正在经历一段冷静期，但比特币投资者的行为表明，进一步的疲软可能即将到来。

Bitcoin and Ethereum Slide Lower, Highlighting Cryptocurrency Market Correction

比特币和以太坊下滑，凸显加密货币市场调整

New York, April 17, 2022 - Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has erased all gains from its recent rebound, falling below the $60,000 mark in the early hours of Wednesday's U.S. trading session.

纽约，2022 年 4 月 17 日 - 全球市值最大的加密货币比特币 (BTC) 抹去了近期反弹的所有涨幅，在周三美国交易时段早盘跌破 60,000 美元大关。

Sharp Market Drop

市场急剧下跌

Bitcoin had recovered to over $64,000 earlier in the day but has since plunged to a low of $59,900, a more than 3% decline in the last 24 hours. This marks Bitcoin's lowest price since early March, and at the time of writing, it was trading at $60,200.

当天早些时候，比特币价格已回升至 64,000 美元以上，但此后暴跌至 59,900 美元的低点，过去 24 小时内跌幅超过 3%。这标志着比特币自 3 月初以来的最低价格，在撰写本文时，其交易价格为 60,200 美元。

Ethereum Follows Suit

以太坊紧随其后

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has also experienced significant losses, falling below $3,000 with a 2.5% decline during the same timeframe.

按市值计算的第二大加密货币以太币 (ETH) 也经历了重大损失，同期跌破 3,000 美元，跌幅为 2.5%。

Demand at $60k Level

需求达到 6 万美元水平

Despite the downturn, on Binance, the most active trading pair for Bitcoin (BTC-USDT), the spot market order book shows a preponderance of bids under $60,000, exceeding the number of sell orders. This pattern suggests a robust demand at that price level, potentially preventing further declines in the short term.

尽管经济低迷，但在比特币 (BTC-USDT) 最活跃的交易对币安上，现货市场订单簿显示，60,000 美元以下的买盘占主导地位，超过了卖单数量。这种模式表明在该价格水平上需求强劲，可能会阻止短期内进一步下跌。

Cooling-Off Period

冷静期

The market downturn confirms that the cryptocurrency sector is undergoing a cooling-off period following a sustained rally that reached its peak last month. Bitcoin has shed over 15% since achieving its most recent all-time high, and some altcoins have retreated by 40% to 50% from their recent peaks. This type of retraction aligns with historical patterns observed in previous bull markets, according to data from Glassnode.

市场低迷证实，加密货币行业在上个月达到顶峰的持续上涨之后正在经历一段冷静期。自达到最近的历史高点以来，比特币已经下跌了 15% 以上，一些山寨币已经从最近的峰值回落了 40% 到 50%。根据 Glassnode 的数据，这种类型的回撤与之前牛市中观察到的历史模式相符。

Investor Behavior and Market Outlook

投资者行为与市场前景

Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group, analyzes the behavior of Bitcoin investors and suggests that market weakness may persist. His market update on Wednesday highlights that blockchain data shows major Bitcoin holders are delaying increasing their stakes during the current dip, indicating potential further weakness or consolidation before a market rebound.

LMAX Group 市场策略师 Joel Kruger 分析了比特币投资者的行为，并表示市场疲软可能会持续下去。他周三的市场更新强调，区块链数据显示主要比特币持有者在当前的下跌期间推迟了增持，这表明在市场反弹之前可能会进一步走软或盘整。

Kruger emphasizes that a critical technical level for Bitcoin is $59,000, a major support zone that saw prices recover twice in March. If Bitcoin maintains above this level, it positions the cryptocurrency to potentially reach new highs and approach the $100,000 mark. Conversely, a decline below $59,000 could undermine the short-term bullish outlook and lead to a significant correction, potentially pushing prices down to the $45,000 to $50,000 range.

Kruger 强调，比特币的关键技术水平是 59,000 美元，这是 3 月份价格两次回升的主要支撑区域。如果比特币维持在这一水平之上，则该加密货币有可能创下新高并接近 10 万美元大关。相反，跌破 59,000 美元可能会破坏短期看涨前景，并导致大幅调整，可能将价格推低至 45,000 美元至 50,000 美元区间。

Uniqueness of This Halving

本次减半的独特性

Much debate has centered around the distinctiveness of this year's Bitcoin halving event compared to previous occurrences. Notably, the cryptocurrency's price peaked a month before the halving, a phenomenon not seen in earlier cycles.

许多争论都集中在今年比特币减半事件与以往事件相比的独特性上。值得注意的是，加密货币的价格在减半前一个月达到顶峰，这种现象在早期周期中没有出现过。

Sam Callahan, a senior analyst at Swan Bitcoin, a firm specializing in Bitcoin financial services, observes that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a consolidation phase. He attributes the recent price fluctuations to short-term traders speculating on the results of the upcoming, much-anticipated halving event. Callahan advises investors to expect short-term volatility, but emphasizes that Bitcoin's long-term trajectory remains decidedly positive.

专门从事比特币金融服务的公司 Swan Bitcoin 的高级分析师 Sam Callahan 观察到，比特币目前正在经历整合阶段。他将最近的价格波动归因于短期交易者对即将到来的、备受期待的减半事件结果的猜测。卡拉汉建议投资者预计短期波动，但强调比特币的长期轨迹仍然明显乐观。

Historical Trends and Goldman Sachs Caution

历史趋势和高盛的警告

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with price increases. Following the 2012 halving, the price of Bitcoin rose from $12 to $44 in 100 days and to $135 in 300 days. After the 2016 halving, the price increased from $658 to $1,551 over the same period. Most recently, in the 2020 halving, Bitcoin's price escalated from $8,601 to $50,941 within 300 days.

从历史上看，比特币减半与价格上涨有关。 2012 年减半后，比特币的价格在 100 天内从 12 美元升至 44 美元，在 300 天内升至 135 美元。 2016年减半后，同期价格从658美元上涨至1,551美元。最近，在 2020 年减半期间，比特币的价格在 300 天内从 8,601 美元升至 50,941 美元。

However, Goldman Sachs advises caution ahead of Bitcoin's next halving due to the unpredictable macroeconomic environment. The team from Goldman's Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) and Equities cautioned that while historical halvings have led to price increases, the duration to peak prices varied significantly, suggesting that past trends should not be blindly followed given the current macroeconomic conditions.

然而，由于宏观经济环境不可预测，高盛建议在比特币下一次减半之前保持谨慎。高盛固定收益、货币和商品（FICC）和股票团队警告称，虽然历史减半导致价格上涨，但价格达到峰值的持续时间差异很大，这表明鉴于当前的宏观经济状况，不应盲目追随过去的趋势。

Long-Term Bullishness

长期看涨

Amidst market volatility and investor anxiety, Rennick Palley, Founding Partner at crypto venture capital firm Stratos, remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He acknowledges the volatile period before the halving and previous price highs but views them as short-term hurdles that Bitcoin will overcome by mid-summer. Palley predicts that Bitcoin could potentially reach over $150,000 by 2025.

在市场波动和投资者焦虑的情况下，加密风险投资公司 Stratos 的创始合伙人 Rennick Palley 仍然看好比特币的长期前景。他承认减半前的波动期和之前的价格高点，但认为它们是比特币将在仲夏之前克服的短期障碍。 Palley 预测，到 2025 年，比特币的价格可能会超过 15 万美元。