剛剛發布了一批新的新經濟數據

GDP，PCE，勞動力市場，消費者信心顯示出令人沮喪的結果，表明陷阱風險。

A fresh batch of macroeconomic data from the U.S. has just landed, and it’s painting a rather discouraging picture.

來自美國的一批宏觀經濟數據剛剛降落，它繪製了一幅令人沮喪的圖片。

If you’re still defending this administration, you’re either a grifter or a victim of a cult. Which one are you?

如果您仍在捍衛這項政府，那麼您要么是邪教的受害者或受害者。你是哪一個？

Jobs Down. GDP Down. Consumption Down. Inflation Up. Time for some serious thinking.

工作下降。 GDP下降。消費量。通貨膨脹上升。是時候進行一些認真的思考了。

We’ll start with the Q1 GDP — the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% year-over-year in the first quarter of this year, marking the first decline since 2022. A major contributor to this downturn was a sharp 51% increase in imports, as businesses likely rushed to bring in goods ahead of expected tariff hikes and at lower costs. However, keep in mind that this table does not include import data, which clearly affected the GDP reading. It provides additional insight into what happened with the U.S. GDP.

我們將從Q1 GDP開始 - 美國經濟在今年第一季度同比同比簽約，標誌著自2022年以來的首次下降。由於企業可能會急於將商品帶到預期的關稅遠足和較低的成本，因此進口趨勢的主要貢獻是進口量的急劇增長了51％。但是，請記住，該表不包括導入數據，這顯然影響了GDP讀數。它提供了有關美國GDP發生的事情的更多見解。

Moreover, the J.P. Morgan economists, who had previously estimated the probability of a recession at 60% in mid-April, recently adjusted their projection to 74% peak on Kalshi before settling closer to 60%. This adjustment follows the Q1 2024 GDP figures, which came in worse than anticipated. Economists had anticipated a 0.3% quarter-over-quarter increase in PCE but instead recorded a 0.3% decrease. This unexpected turn of events now places the Federal Reserve in an extremely complicated predicament.

此外，摩根大通經濟學家此前曾估計，在4月中旬，經濟衰退的可能性為60％，他最近將其預測調整為卡爾西（Kalshi）的74％峰值，然後降低了接近60％。此調整遵循Q1 2024 GDP數字，該數字比預期的要差。經濟學家預計，PCE的四分之一季度會增加0.3％，但記錄下降了0.3％。這一意外的事件現在使美聯儲處於極為複雜的困境。

The situation is further complicated by the rise in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to 3.5%. This exceeded the forecast of 3.1% and was significantly higher than last month’s reading of 2.6%.

個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數提高到3.5％，情況更加複雜。這超過了3.1％的預測，並且明顯高於上個月的2.6％的閱讀。

When the PCE index rises, it means that the prices of goods and services are also increasing, which in essence is inflation. If inflation increases faster than economic growth, this can lead to instability, which would normally prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to fight inflation. But that only applies if the economy is growing — and here, the economy is shrinking, so the Federal Reserve will most likely reject the Trump administration’s call to cut rates.

當PCE指數上升時，這意味著商品和服務的價格也在上漲，這本質上是通貨膨脹。如果通貨膨脹率增長快於經濟增長，這可能導致不穩定，這通常會促使中央銀行提高利率與通貨膨脹打擊。但這僅在經濟增長時適用 - 在這裡，經濟正在萎縮，因此美聯儲很可能會拒絕特朗普政府降低利率的呼籲。

If rates are cut, inflation will likely rise further, especially if the current tariff regime remains unchanged. That places the U.S. economy in a genuine deadlock. The economy is slowing down at precisely the moment when inflation expectations are growing — a deeply troubling signal.

如果降低利率，通貨膨脹可能會進一步上升，尤其是如果當前的關稅制度保持不變。這使美國經濟陷入了真正的僵局。正是通貨膨脹預期增長的那一刻，經濟正在放緩 - 這是一個令人不安的信號。

Consumers in the U.S. are also highly concerned, as evidenced by the Consumer Confidence Index, which has dropped to a record low.

消費者信心指數證明了美國的消費者也非常關注，該指數已下降到創紀錄的低點。

As for the latest employment data, this comes from the ADP labor market report.

至於最新的就業數據，這來自ADP勞動力市場報告。

The U.S. economy added just 62,000 jobs in April — the lowest number since July 2024. This is well below the 147,000 jobs added in March. Once again, expectations diverged sharply from reality.

美國經濟在4月份僅增加了62,000個工作崗位，這是自2024年7月以來的最低數字。這遠低於3月增加的147,000個工作崗位。再次，期望與現實急劇不同。

Thus, the Federal Reserve faces an extremely difficult choice: to keep inflation in check or to prevent rising unemployment. If it maintains high interest rates, GDP could weaken further in the future, eventually leading to higher unemployment. On the other hand, if it cuts rates too soon, there is a strong chance that inflation will accelerate again. All of this puts the U.S. Fed in a very tough spot, forcing it to decide which economic risk takes priority.

因此，美聯儲面臨一個極其困難的選擇：保持通貨膨脹或防止失業率上升。如果維持高利率，GDP將來可能會進一步削弱，最終導致更高的失業率。另一方面，如果降低費率過早，通貨膨脹很有可能會再次加速。所有這些使美國陷入了一個非常艱難的地方，迫使它決定哪種經濟風險優先。

Let’s also examine the Consumer Confidence Index — an important indicator that offers valuable clues about what may lie ahead.

讓我們還檢查消費者信心指數 - 這是一個重要的指標，該指標提供了有關未來情況的寶貴線索。

Consumer confidence has been declining for five straight months, and April was no exception, clearly signaling mounting economic anxiety. The Consumer Confidence Index fell by eight points to 86, the lowest level since May 2022. Even more concerning is that the drop was broad-based, affecting all age groups and most income levels.

消費者的信心連續五個月一直在下降，四月也不例外，顯然表明了經濟焦慮的越來越大。消費者信心指數下降了8分，至86分，這是自2022年5月以來的最低水平。更令人擔憂的是，下降是基於廣泛的，影響了所有年齡段和大多數收入水平。

More alarming still is the Expectations Index, which reflects consumer outlooks for the next six months. It plunged by 13 points to 54 — the lowest reading since October 2011. A reading below 80 typically signals a potential recession, and today’s 54-point reading is far beneath that threshold.

期望指數更令人震驚，這反映了未來六個月的消費者前景。它下跌了13分，至54點，這是自2011年10月以來的最低讀數。讀數低於80，通常標誌著潛在的經濟衰退，今天的54分讀數遠低於該門檻。

Overall, Americans are now expressing one of the bleakest economic outlooks in over a decade. J.P. Morgan now expects a recession within the year. Nonetheless, even after all this data, markets are still hopeful that the U.S. will begin cutting rates in June, with at least four rate cuts expected this year.

總體而言，美國人現在表達了十多年來最黯淡的經濟前景之一。 JP Morgan現在預計一年中會有衰退。儘管如此，即使在所有這些數據之後，市場仍然希望美國將在6月開始降低利率，今年預計至少會降低4次。

In other words, the market is largely betting that the U.S. will choose the economy over the inflation fight — but uncertainty around this projection is growing, as the Fed faces simultaneous pressures from both rising prices and weakening employment.

換句話說，市場在很大程度上押注，美國將在通貨膨脹鬥爭中選擇經濟 - 但是，由於美聯儲的價格上漲和就業削弱，這種預測的不確定性正在增長，因為美聯儲面臨同時承受的壓力。

In an environment of growing economic uncertainty and market volatility, investors and traders increasingly rely on trusted sources of analysis and support. This is especially relevant as capital gradually shifts from assets

在經濟不確定性日益增長的環境中，投資者和貿易商越來越依賴於可信賴的分析和支持來源。這尤其重要，因為資本逐漸從資產轉移