儘管有挑戰性的Q1價格行動，但鏈度指標表明以太坊（ETH）可能被低估了

儘管ETH的Q1價格表現不佳和看跌技術信號（例如“死亡十字”），但以太坊2級擴展解決方案的用戶參與度達到了1360萬個活動地址的歷史最高點

A recent analysis by Fidelity Digital Assets suggests that Ethereum (ETH) may be trading below its intrinsic value, despite a challenging first quarter performance.

Fidelity Digital Assets的最新分析表明，儘管第一季度的表現充滿挑戰，但以太坊（ETH）的交易可能低於其內在價值。

The firm’s ‘Signals Report’ observed that Ether experienced a significant 45% price decline during Q1, erasing gains made following the US election after reaching a peak near $3,579 in January.

該公司的“信號報告”觀察到，在第一季度，Ether的價格下降了45％，在一月份達到峰值接近3,579美元的峰值後，美國大選取得了巨大的收益。

This downturn was technically underscored by a ‘death cross’ formation in March, where the 50-day simple moving average fell substantially below the 200-day SMA, signaling negative market momentum.

從技術上講，這一衰退在3月的“死亡十字架”形成方面強調了，在那裡，50天的簡單移動平均線基本上低於200天的SMA，這表明了負面的市場勢頭。

The report highlighted the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, a metric comparing an asset’s market capitalization to its aggregate cost basis. This indicator fell to -0.18 on March 9, entering a range historically associated with market troughs and suggesting ETH was potentially undervalued relative to its perceived ‘fair value.’

該報告強調了實現價值（MVRV）Z得分的市場價值，這是一個將資產的市值與其總成本基礎進行比較的度量。該指標在3月9日降至-0.18，進入與市場槽相關的歷史範圍，並暗示ETH可能相對於其“公允價值”被低估了。

Furthermore, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio decreased to zero. According to the analysis, this signifies a state of ‘capitulation,’ where the market reaches a neutral point as unrealized profits held by investors are equivalent to unrealized losses.

此外，未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）比率降至零。根據分析，這表示“投降”的狀態，市場到達中立點，因為投資者持有的未實現的利潤等同於未實現的損失。

The report also examined ETH’s realized price (the average price at which all ETH coins last moved on-chain), which stood at approximately $2,020, about 10% higher than the current trading value. This data indicates the average holder is currently facing unrealized losses.

該報告還研究了ETH的實現價格（所有ETH COIN上一次移動鏈的平均價格），該價格的價格約為2,020美元，比當前的交易價值高出約10％。該數據表明，平均持有人目前面臨未實現的損失。

While typically bearish, Fidelity noted that the realized price decreased by only 3% compared to the spot price’s 45% fall. This disparity suggests that selling pressure may have predominantly come from short-term participants, while long-term holders largely retained their positions, potentially forming a more stable price floor.

富達通常通常是看跌，但與現貨價格下跌45％相比，實現的價格僅下降了3％。這種差異表明，銷售壓力可能主要來自短期參與者，而長期持有人在很大程度上保留了自己的職位，可能形成更穩定的價格。

Contrasting with the price performance, data concerning the Ethereum ecosystem’s usage shows robust growth. Statistics from growthepie.xyz reveals that unique active addresses interacting with Ethereum’s layer 2 scaling solutions reached an unprecedented peak of 13.6 million. This represents a 74% increase in active addresses over the preceding week, highlighting growing adoption and the network’s expanding capacity through layer 2 solutions.

與價格績效相比，有關以太坊生態系統用法的數據顯示出強大的增長。 Grancienepie.xyz的統計數據表明，獨特的主動地址與以太坊的第2層擴展解決方案相互作用達到了1360萬的前所未有的峰值。這代表上一周的主動地址增加了74％，這強調了採用率的增長以及通過第2層解決方案的網絡擴大容量。

Uniswap’s recently launched layer 2 protocol, Unichain, significantly contributed to this growth, recording over 5.82 million unique weekly active addresses, outpacing established platforms like Base and Arbitrum. This surge in activity collectively bolstered the market share of Ethereum’s layer 2 solutions by nearly 59% within the past week.

Uniswap最近啟動的第2層協議Unichain為這一增長做出了重大貢獻，記錄了超過582萬個獨特的每週活動地址，超過了基本和仲裁等既定平台。這項活動的激增集體增強了以太坊2層解決方案的市場份額，在過去一周內近59％。

Separately, market observers like pseudonymous trader CRG noted a potentially positive technical development. ETH’s price reportedly moved above the 12-hour Ichimoku cloud indicator for the first time since December 2023. Traditionally, price action above a green Ichimoku cloud is interpreted as a sign of potential bullish sentiment and an emerging uptrend.

另外，諸如Pseunymous Trader CRG之類的市場觀察員指出了潛在的積極技術發展。據報導，ETH的價格自2023年12月以來首次超過了12小時的Ichimoku雲指標。傳統上，高於綠色的Ichimoku雲高於綠色的價格行動被解釋為潛在看漲情緒和新興上升的標誌。