ARK Invest的Cathie Wood預測比特幣（加密：BTC）將於2030年達到240萬美元

當涉及比特幣（加密：BTC）價格預測時，我現在關注的一位投資者是ARK Invest的Cathie Wood。她現在預測，到2030年，比特幣將達到240萬美元。

Cathie Wood, the renowned investor and founder of Ark Invest, has once again revised her prediction for Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) price in the year 2030. This time, she has set a new target of $2.4 million, an increment from her previous forecast of $1.5 million that was unveiled earlier this year.

Ark Invest的著名投資者兼創始人Cathie Wood在2030年再次修訂了她對比特幣（Crypto：BTC）價格的預測。這次，她的新目標是240萬美元的新目標，這是她以前的預測，這是她今年早些時候公佈的150萬美元的預測。

As Bitcoin struggles to break back above the $100,000 price level this year, Wood's prediction is certainly a bold one. Starting from today's prices, a $2.4 million future price tag assumes that Bitcoin will soar by 2,426% over the next five years.

隨著比特幣難以退回今年的100,000美元價格水平，伍德的預測無疑是一個大膽的預測。從今天的價格開始，一個240萬美元的未來價格標籤假設比特幣在未來五年內將飆升2,426％。

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如果您正在尋找投資機會，我們的分析團隊剛剛透露了他們認為現在要購買的10種最佳股票。

If you're interested in learning more about how Cathie Wood arrives at her Bitcoin price predictions, continue reading.

如果您有興趣了解有關Cathie Wood如何到達比特幣價格預測的更多信息，請繼續閱讀。

How Is Ark Invest Valuing Bitcoin?

方舟投資如何評估比特幣？

For several years now, Cathie Wood and her team at Ark Invest have been using a building block valuation model for Bitcoin. In essence, they look at six key areas where Bitcoin is showing signs of growth and then attempt to forecast how these areas are going to perform over the five-year time horizon. They then sum up the value of each of these key areas to arrive at a total valuation for Bitcoin.

幾年來，Cathie Wood和她在ARK Invest的團隊一直在為比特幣使用構件評估模型。從本質上講，他們研究了六個關鍵領域，在這些領域中，比特幣顯示出增長的跡象，然後試圖在五年的時間範圍內預測這些領域的表現。然後，他們總結了這些關鍵領域的每個關鍵領域的價值，以達到比特幣的總估值。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Right now, the key driver of Bitcoin price growth involves the new spot Bitcoin ETFs. That's because large institutional investors are continuing to pour money into Bitcoin via these ETFs. If investors decide to ratchet up the percentage of their portfolios allocated to Bitcoin, that should help to send the price of Bitcoin soaring.

目前，比特幣價格增長的主要驅動力涉及新的比特幣ETF。那是因為大型機構投資者繼續通過這些ETF將錢倒入比特幣中。如果投資者決定提高分配給比特幣的投資組合的百分比，那應該有助於發送比特幣的價格。

In the updated $2.4 million forecast, Cathie Wood thinks that Bitcoin could account for 6.5% of investment portfolios by 2030. That's an aggressive target because, as of today, the suggested allocation for Bitcoin is just 2%, and many risk-averse investors may be comfortable with only a 1% allocation to Bitcoin. But it's certainly within the realm of possibility.

在更新的240萬美元預測中，凱西·伍德（Cathie Wood）認為，到2030年，比特幣可以佔投資組合的6.5％。這是一個積極的目標，因為截至今天，比特幣的建議分配僅為2％，而且許多避開風險的投資者可能只能分配給比特幣1％。但這肯定在可能性範圍內。

What's Changed in 2025?

2025年發生了什麼變化？

In Ark Invest's "Big Ideas 2025" report that was published in January, Cathie Wood arrived at a $1.5 million price tag for Bitcoin. If you compare the numbers used in that report with the numbers used in the updated prediction of $2.4 million, not much has changed. For example, Ark Invest is still using the 6.5% allocation figure for institutional investors.

在1月份發布的ARK Invest的“大創意2025”報告中，Cathie Wood的比特幣價格為150萬美元。如果將該報告中使用的數字與240萬美元的更新預測中使用的數字進行比較，則沒有太大變化。例如，方舟投資仍在為機構投資者使用6.5％的分配數字。

What has changed, however, is Cathie Wood's calculation of Bitcoin's coin supply. Based on her estimates, as much as 40% of Bitcoin's supply is now "vaulted," which means that it has been taken off cryptocurrency exchanges and put into private blockchain wallets for safe long-term storage. It also refers to Bitcoin that has been lost or has simply disappeared from circulation.

但是，發生了變化的是，凱茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）對比特幣硬幣供應的計算。根據她的估計，現在比特幣供應量的40％被“拱頂”，這意味著它已被從加密貨幣交換中取出，並放入私人區塊鏈錢包中以安全長期存儲。它還指的是丟失或僅因循環而消失的比特幣。

This missing 40% could have a profound impact on supply and demand. As we know from Economics 101, increased demand for an asset amid declining supply should send the price of that asset soaring higher. Bitcoin, famed for its inherent scarcity, appears to be becoming more scarce over time.

失踪的40％可能會對供求產生深遠的影響。從經濟學101中我們知道，供應量下降的資產需求增加，應該使該資產的價格飆升。隨著時間的流逝，比特幣以其固有的稀缺而聞名，似乎變得越來越稀缺。

Ark Invest's updated valuation model uses an experimental new metric called "Liveliness," which refers to how much of the outstanding Bitcoin supply can be traded on a daily basis. When this "Liveliness" metric is used part of the valuation model, it results in a much higher price forecast for Bitcoin. You can check the math yourself -- it's all publicly available on the official Ark Invest website.

ARK Invest的更新估值模型使用了一個名為“ Liveliness”的實驗新指標，該指標指的是每天可以進行多少出色的比特幣供應。當使用此“活潑”度量標準的一部分是評估模型的一部分時，它會導致比特幣的價格預測更高。您可以自己檢查數學 - 所有這些都可以在ARK Invest官方網站上公開使用。

What Else Should Bitcoin Investors Be Thinking About?

比特幣投資者還應該考慮什麼？

You might have noticed that I have not once used the word "tariffs" until now. As soon as I heard about Ark Invest's new $2.4 million price target, I immediately assumed it involved tariffs and global trade policy. But this doesn't appear to be the case -- the updated forecast was based primarily on new thinking about Bitcoin's circulating supply.

您可能已經註意到，到目前為止，我還沒有使用“關稅”一詞。當我聽說ARK Invest的240萬美元目標目標時，我立即認為它涉及關稅和全球貿易政策。但情況似乎並非如此 - 更新的預測主要基於關於比特幣循環供應的新思維。

That being said, Ark Invest does point out that more investors are starting to view Bitcoin as "digital gold" and that this is now the second-biggest driver of its future valuation. It also points out that Bitcoin is now being viewed as a potential safe haven asset in many emerging markets, where there are concerns about currency devaluation and hyperinflation.

話雖如此，方舟投資確實指出，越來越多的投資者開始將比特幣視為“數字黃金”，而這現在是其未來估值的第二大驅動力。它還指出，在許多新興市場中，比特幣現在被視為潛在的避風港資產，人們擔心貨幣貶值和過度通貨膨脹。

As tariffs go into effect, keep your eye on these two factors because they could dramatically impact Bitcoin's future valuation. After all, in Ark Invest's base-case scenario, Bitcoin only hits a price of $1.2 million. And, in a bear-case scenario, Bitcoin only makes it to $500,000.

隨著關稅的生效，請注意這兩個因素，因為它們可能會極大地影響比特幣的未來估值。畢竟，在ARK Invest的基本場景中，比特幣僅達到120萬美元的價格。而且，在熊市場景中，比特幣只能達到500,000美元。

For now, I'm focusing on investor inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. If these hold up

目前，我專注於投資者流入現貨比特幣ETF。如果這些堅持