Cathie Wood of Ark Invest Predicts Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) Will Hit a Price of $2.4 Million by the Year 2030

In the realm of cryptocurrency predictions, few analysts command as much attention as Cathie Wood of Ark Invest. Having previously forecast a Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) price of $1.5 million by 2030, her latest prediction of $2.4 million has taken the crypto sphere by storm.

Considering Bitcoin's recent struggles to breach the $100,000 mark this year, and given today's prices, a $2.4 million future price tag assumes a staggering 2,426% surge in Bitcoin's value over the next five years.

Now, is Cathie Wood's prediction plausible? Let's delve into the analysis.

Ark Invest's Bitcoin valuation model

For several years, Ark Invest has been utilizing a building block valuation model for Bitcoin. Essentially, they examine six key areas where Bitcoin is demonstrating growth and attempt to project how these areas will perform over the next half decade. Subsequently, they sum up the value of each of these key areas to arrive at a total valuation for Bitcoin.

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Currently, the primary driver of Bitcoin price growth is the emergence of new spot Bitcoin ETFs. This is due to large institutional investors continuously pouring funds into Bitcoin via these ETFs. Should investors decide to increase the percentage of their portfolios allocated to crypto, it should naturally help drive up the price.

In her updated $2.4 million forecast, Cathie Wood predicts that Bitcoin could constitute 6.5% of investment portfolios by 2030. This is a significant target considering that at present, the suggested allocation for Bitcoin stands at 2%, with many risk-averse investors perhaps comfortable with a 1% allocation. However, it's not entirely inconceivable given the broader trends in institutional investing.

What has changed in 2025?

In Ark Invest's "Big Ideas 2025" report, published in January, Cathie Wood arrived at a $1.5 million price tag for Bitcoin. Comparing the figures used in that report with the updated prediction of $2.4 million, not much seems to have changed. For instance, Ark Invest is still using the 6.5% allocation figure for institutional investors.

However, what has shifted is Cathie Wood's calculation of Bitcoin's coin supply. According to her estimates, as much as 40% of Bitcoin's supply has now been "vaulted," referring to coins that have been removed from cryptocurrency exchanges and placed into private blockchain wallets for long-term storage, or coins that have been lost or have simply disappeared from circulation.

This missing 40% could have a significant impact on supply and demand. As basic economics dictates, increased demand for an asset amid declining supply should drive up the price of that asset. Bitcoin, renowned for its inherent scarcity, appears to be becoming even scarcer over time.

Ark Invest's updated valuation model introduces an experimental new metric called "Liveliness," which denotes the portion of the outstanding Bitcoin supply that is available for daily trading. When this "Liveliness" metric is included in the valuation model, it naturally leads to a much higher price forecast for Bitcoin. The complete breakdown of the math is available on the official Ark Invest website.

What else should Bitcoin investors be considering?

You might have noticed the lack of discussion about tariffs until now. Upon hearing about Ark Invest's new $2.4 million price target, my initial thought went to tariffs and global trade policy, which I have been closely following. However, that doesn't appear to be the case. Instead, the updated forecast is largely driven by new thinking about Bitcoin's circulating supply.

Of course, Ark Invest also notes that more investors are beginning to view Bitcoin as “digital gold,” which is now the second-biggest driver of its future valuation. They also highlight that Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a safe haven asset in emerging markets, where there are concerns about currency devaluation and hyperinflation, both of which are being fueled by the U.S. trade policy.

As tariffs come into effect, keep an eye on these two factors as they could dramatically impact Bitcoin's future valuation. In Ark Invest's base-case scenario, Bitcoin hits a price of $1.2 million. Meanwhile, in a bear-case scenario, Bitcoin only makes it to $500,000.

For now, I'm focusing on investor inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. If these hold up well amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, and if we start to hear more stories about institutional investors moving their money into Bitcoin, then I'll be much more confident about Bitcoin hitting the $2.4 million price point within the next five years.