ARK Invest的Cathie Wood预测比特币（加密：BTC）将于2030年达到240万美元

当涉及比特币（加密：BTC）价格预测时，我现在关注的一位投资者是ARK Invest的Cathie Wood。她现在预测，到2030年，比特币将达到240万美元。

Cathie Wood, the renowned investor and founder of Ark Invest, has once again revised her prediction for Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) price in the year 2030. This time, she has set a new target of $2.4 million, an increment from her previous forecast of $1.5 million that was unveiled earlier this year.

Ark Invest的著名投资者兼创始人Cathie Wood在2030年再次修订了她对比特币（Crypto：BTC）价格的预测。这次，她的新目标是240万美元的新目标，这是她以前的预测，这是她今年早些时候公布的150万美元的预测。

As Bitcoin struggles to break back above the $100,000 price level this year, Wood's prediction is certainly a bold one. Starting from today's prices, a $2.4 million future price tag assumes that Bitcoin will soar by 2,426% over the next five years.

随着比特币难以退回今年的100,000美元价格水平，伍德的预测无疑是一个大胆的预测。从今天的价格开始，一个240万美元的未来价格标签假设比特币在未来五年内将飙升2,426％。

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如果您正在寻找投资机会，我们的分析团队刚刚透露了他们认为现在要购买的10种最佳股票。

If you're interested in learning more about how Cathie Wood arrives at her Bitcoin price predictions, continue reading.

如果您有兴趣了解有关Cathie Wood如何到达比特币价格预测的更多信息，请继续阅读。

How Is Ark Invest Valuing Bitcoin?

方舟投资如何评估比特币？

For several years now, Cathie Wood and her team at Ark Invest have been using a building block valuation model for Bitcoin. In essence, they look at six key areas where Bitcoin is showing signs of growth and then attempt to forecast how these areas are going to perform over the five-year time horizon. They then sum up the value of each of these key areas to arrive at a total valuation for Bitcoin.

几年来，Cathie Wood和她在ARK Invest的团队一直在为比特币使用构件评估模型。从本质上讲，他们研究了六个关键领域，在这些领域中，比特币显示出增长的迹象，然后试图在五年的时间范围内预测这些领域的表现。然后，他们总结了这些关键领域的每个关键领域的价值，以达到比特币的总估值。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

Right now, the key driver of Bitcoin price growth involves the new spot Bitcoin ETFs. That's because large institutional investors are continuing to pour money into Bitcoin via these ETFs. If investors decide to ratchet up the percentage of their portfolios allocated to Bitcoin, that should help to send the price of Bitcoin soaring.

目前，比特币价格增长的主要驱动力涉及新的比特币ETF。那是因为大型机构投资者继续通过这些ETF将钱倒入比特币中。如果投资者决定提高分配给比特币的投资组合的百分比，那应该有助于发送比特币的价格。

In the updated $2.4 million forecast, Cathie Wood thinks that Bitcoin could account for 6.5% of investment portfolios by 2030. That's an aggressive target because, as of today, the suggested allocation for Bitcoin is just 2%, and many risk-averse investors may be comfortable with only a 1% allocation to Bitcoin. But it's certainly within the realm of possibility.

在更新的240万美元预测中，凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）认为，到2030年，比特币可以占投资组合的6.5％。这是一个积极的目标，因为截至今天，比特币的建议分配仅为2％，而且许多避开风险的投资者可能只能分配给比特币1％。但这肯定在可能性范围内。

What's Changed in 2025?

2025年发生了什么变化？

In Ark Invest's "Big Ideas 2025" report that was published in January, Cathie Wood arrived at a $1.5 million price tag for Bitcoin. If you compare the numbers used in that report with the numbers used in the updated prediction of $2.4 million, not much has changed. For example, Ark Invest is still using the 6.5% allocation figure for institutional investors.

在1月份发布的ARK Invest的“大创意2025”报告中，Cathie Wood的比特币价格为150万美元。如果将该报告中使用的数字与240万美元的更新预测中使用的数字进行比较，则没有太大变化。例如，方舟投资仍在为机构投资者使用6.5％的分配数字。

What has changed, however, is Cathie Wood's calculation of Bitcoin's coin supply. Based on her estimates, as much as 40% of Bitcoin's supply is now "vaulted," which means that it has been taken off cryptocurrency exchanges and put into private blockchain wallets for safe long-term storage. It also refers to Bitcoin that has been lost or has simply disappeared from circulation.

但是，发生了变化的是，凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）对比特币硬币供应的计算。根据她的估计，现在比特币供应量的40％被“拱顶”，这意味着它已被从加密货币交换中取出，并放入私人区块链钱包中以安全长期存储。它还指的是丢失或仅因循环而消失的比特币。

This missing 40% could have a profound impact on supply and demand. As we know from Economics 101, increased demand for an asset amid declining supply should send the price of that asset soaring higher. Bitcoin, famed for its inherent scarcity, appears to be becoming more scarce over time.

失踪的40％可能会对供求产生深远的影响。从经济学101中我们知道，供应量下降的资产需求增加，应该使该资产的价格飙升。随着时间的流逝，比特币以其固有的稀缺而闻名，似乎变得越来越稀缺。

Ark Invest's updated valuation model uses an experimental new metric called "Liveliness," which refers to how much of the outstanding Bitcoin supply can be traded on a daily basis. When this "Liveliness" metric is used part of the valuation model, it results in a much higher price forecast for Bitcoin. You can check the math yourself -- it's all publicly available on the official Ark Invest website.

ARK Invest的更新估值模型使用了一个名为“ Liveliness”的实验新指标，该指标指的是每天可以进行多少出色的比特币供应。当使用此“活泼”度量标准的一部分是评估模型的一部分时，它会导致比特币的价格预测更高。您可以自己检查数学 - 所有这些都可以在ARK Invest官方网站上公开使用。

What Else Should Bitcoin Investors Be Thinking About?

比特币投资者还应该考虑什么？

You might have noticed that I have not once used the word "tariffs" until now. As soon as I heard about Ark Invest's new $2.4 million price target, I immediately assumed it involved tariffs and global trade policy. But this doesn't appear to be the case -- the updated forecast was based primarily on new thinking about Bitcoin's circulating supply.

您可能已经注意到，到目前为止，我还没有使用“关税”一词。当我听说ARK Invest的240万美元目标目标时，我立即认为它涉及关税和全球贸易政策。但情况似乎并非如此 - 更新的预测主要基于关于比特币循环供应的新思维。

That being said, Ark Invest does point out that more investors are starting to view Bitcoin as "digital gold" and that this is now the second-biggest driver of its future valuation. It also points out that Bitcoin is now being viewed as a potential safe haven asset in many emerging markets, where there are concerns about currency devaluation and hyperinflation.

话虽如此，方舟投资确实指出，越来越多的投资者开始将比特币视为“数字黄金”，而这现在是其未来估值的第二大驱动力。它还指出，在许多新兴市场中，比特币现在被视为潜在的避风港资产，人们担心货币贬值和过度通货膨胀。

As tariffs go into effect, keep your eye on these two factors because they could dramatically impact Bitcoin's future valuation. After all, in Ark Invest's base-case scenario, Bitcoin only hits a price of $1.2 million. And, in a bear-case scenario, Bitcoin only makes it to $500,000.

随着关税的生效，请注意这两个因素，因为它们可能会极大地影响比特币的未来估值。毕竟，在ARK Invest的基本场景中，比特币仅达到120万美元的价格。而且，在熊市场景中，比特币只能达到500,000美元。

For now, I'm focusing on investor inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. If these hold up

目前，我专注于投资者流入现货比特币ETF。如果这些坚持