Bybit 和 Block Scholes 聯手分析加密衍生性商品市場動態

該報告指出，儘管主要選擇權於 2024 年 12 月 27 日到期，但市場波動性仍然較低。

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, Bybit, recently launched its Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report in collaboration with Block Scholes. The report highlights how major options expirations are set to occur on December 27, 2024, yet the market is showing low volatility.

以交易量計算，全球第二大加密貨幣交易所 Bybit 最近與 Block Scholes 合作推出了加密貨幣衍生性商品分析報告。該報告強調了主要選擇權將於 2024 年 12 月 27 日到期，但市場波動性較低。

Despite the realized volatility of Bitcoin’s (BTC) and Ethereum’s (ETH) showing trends to the higher side, short-term options have shown little reaction to the price swings. This shows how options are not aligning with the market shifts happening in the spot.

儘管比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的實際波動率呈現出較高的趨勢，但短期選擇權對價格波動幾乎沒有反應。這顯示選擇權與現場發生的市場變化不一致。

There’s over $525 million set to expire in BTC and ETH options contracts in the next week. December will also see one of the biggest options expiries, going by the expiration date. However, expectations for volatility are still low.

超過 5.25 億美元的 BTC 和 ETH 選擇權合約將於下週到期。 12 月也將迎來最大的選擇權之一的到期日。然而，對波動性的預期仍然較低。

The analysis finds interesting disparities in the structure of ETH, which isn’t mirrored by BTC. It can be noticed how the finance rates at times go negative as the spot price goes down, hinting at a new phase in the market.

分析發現 ETH 的結構有有趣的差異，而 BTC 並未反映出這一點。可以注意到，隨著現貨價格下跌，融資利率有時會變成負數，這暗示市場進入了一個新階段。

Market Expectations and Volatility Shifts

市場預期和波動性變化

While the realized volatility of BTC and ETH rose, short-term options haven’t reflected this. The structure of BTC’s volatility is less sensitive to spot price changes compared to ETH, whose short-term options are much more sensitive to such moves.

雖然 BTC 和 ETH 的實際波動率上升，但短期選擇權並未反映出這一點。與 ETH 相比，BTC 的波動性結構對現貨價格變化較不敏感，而 ETH 的短期選擇權對此類波動更為敏感。

Over the past two weeks, the spot price for BTC ranged from $92K to $106K, and that for ETH from $3.3K to $4K, but the short-tenor options haven’t kept pace with such moves. Funding rates for perpetual contracts mirrored spot price movements, going from neutral to negative.

過去兩週，BTC 現貨價格從 9.2 萬美元到 10.6 萬美元不等，ETH 現貨價格從 3.3 萬美元到 4 萬美元不等，但短期選擇權並沒有跟上這種走勢。永續合約的融資利率反映了現貨價格走勢，從中性變成負值。

When it comes to options, ETH’s short-term options are generally much more volatile, whereas term structure is more focused on BTC for long-term volatility.

就選擇權而言，ETH 的短期選擇權通常波動性較大，而期限結構則更關注 BTC 的長期波動性。

The last stretch of the year will see the expiration of nearly $360 million in Bitcoin options (both call and put), which could have a major impact on the volatility of Bitcoin, influencing how far and fast it may climb or fall.

今年最後一段時間，近 3.6 億美元的比特幣選擇權（包括看漲期權和看跌期權）將到期，這可能會對比特幣的波動性產生重大影響，影響其上漲或下跌的幅度和速度。

While calls are still leading open interest at the moment, having more puts traded, this still implies that market participants are setting up for potential upside price moves. This again signals how BTC and ETH seem to have somewhat differing dynamics with their respective options markets being near year’s end.

儘管目前看漲期權仍領先未平倉合約，看跌期權交易量有所增加，但這仍然意味著市場參與者正在為潛在的價格上漲做好準備。這再次表明 BTC 和 ETH 的動態似乎有所不同，因為它們各自的選擇市場已接近年底。