與黃金相比

與黃金相比，比特幣的波動率已下降到新的歷史最低水平。 Vaneck的數字資產研究負責人Matthew Sigel分享了彭博終端的數據

Bitcoin's 30-day volatility dropped to a new all-time low compared to Gold, shared on X (formerly Twitter) by VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel.

與黃金相比，比特幣的30天波動率下降到了新的歷史最低點，這是Vaneck的數字資產研究負責人Matthew Sigel在X（以前稱為Twitter）上的。

According to data from Bloomberg Terminal, which Sigel shared on X, BTC 30-day volatility fell to 28.70. This is the lowest volatility level for Bitcoin in more than 10 years and also meant that BTC volatility dropped below Gold's for the first time. The same data shows that Gold currently has a volatility of 33.49 while the SPX also has 40.45 within the same period.

根據Sigel在X上共享的彭博終端的數據，BTC 30天的波動率降至28.70。這是10年來比特幣的最低波動率水平，也意味著BTC的波動率首次下降到黃金以下。相同的數據表明，當前黃金的波動率為33.49，而SPX在同一時期內也有40.45。

With Bitcoin volatility dropping, the volatility ratio for Bitcoin and Gold now stands at 0.87. It is the lowest level in a decade. Sigel considered this to be a good development for the flagship asset.

隨著比特幣波動率下降，比特幣和黃金的波動率比率為0.87。這是十年來最低的水平。 Sigel認為這是旗艦資產的良好發展。

Volatility describes the degree of price variations for an asset over a period of time. When low, it is generally considered a positive sign of asset maturity and price stability, which will attract more institutional investors. This appears to be Sigel’s point of view.

波動性描述了一段時間內資產的價格變化程度。當低時，通常認為這是資產成熟度和價格穩定性的積極跡象，這將吸引更多的機構投資者。這似乎是西格爾的觀點。

The VanEck researcher had earlier highlighted a recent research paper stating that CERN Physicists have been able to turn lead into Gold. He used this as further proof of the inherent value of Bitcoin as the scarcity is already programmed, unlike Gold, which may soon be produced in laboratories.

Vaneck研究人員早些時候強調了最近的一份研究論文，指出CERN物理學家能夠將鉛變成黃金。他將其用作比特幣固有價值的進一步證明，因為已經編程了稀缺性，這與黃金不同，黃金可能很快就會在實驗室中產生。

Low volatility may be bad for Bitcoin

低波動性可能對比特幣不利

However, not everyone agrees that low volatility is good for BTC at the current stage. As one user observed, Bitcoin is still in its early stages, and volatility expansion could attract more inflow, which could be bad for low volatility.

但是，並非所有人都同意，在當前階段，低波動性對BTC有好處。正如一個用戶觀察到的那樣，比特幣仍處於早期階段，波動性的擴展可能會吸引更多的流入，這可能對低波動性不利。

They wrote:

他們寫道：

“Persistent low volatility regime would likely lead to many investors selling BTC (and our many complicated BTC proxies) to integrate for yield and opportunity elsewhere.”

“持續的低波動性制度可能會導致許多投資者出售BTC（以及我們許多複雜的BTC代理），以融入其他地方的收益和機會。”

While the likelihood of low volatility persisting is unknown, the concerns echoed real. The decline in Bitcoin volatility is because the asset has been stuck in price ranges for extended periods over the past month despite gaining more than 22% in the last 30 days.

雖然持續較低波動性的可能性尚不清楚，但擔憂卻與真實相呼應。比特幣波動率的下降是因為儘管過去30天內增長了22％以上，但在過去一個月中，該資產已被困在價格範圍內。

Initially, it was in the $93,000 to $96,000 range for most part of late April and early May. However, it surged above $100,000 on May 8 and has remained stuck in that price zone, not exceeding $104,000 even as other assets saw bigger shifts.

最初，在4月下旬和5月初的大部分時間裡，它在93,000至96,000美元之間。但是，5月8日，它飆升至100,000美元以上，並且仍然停留在該價格區，即使其他資產發生了更大的變化，也不超過104,000美元。

Bitcoin’s low volatility has allowed it to maintain its current $103,000 value even as altcoins saw a decline in their value over the last 24 hours. Still, its failure to break the $104,000 resistance remains a concern.

比特幣的低波動率使它能夠保持其目前的103,000美元價值，即使Altcoins在過去24小時內的價值下降。儘管如此，它未能打破104,000美元的電阻仍然是一個問題。

However, experts have found an explanation for why Bitcoin is stuck. Onchain analyst Darkfost said that the derivatives market is to blame, pointing out that short positions against BTC have exceeded long positions since the asset climbed above $100,000.

但是，專家已經發現了為什麼比特幣被卡住的解釋。 OnChain分析師Darkfost表示，衍生品市場應歸咎於衍生產品市場，指出自資產攀升至100,000美元以上以來，針對BTC的短期頭寸已超過了很長的頭寸。

This suggests that most traders doubt that Bitcoin can hit a new all-time value quickly and are betting against it, leading to significant selling pressure.

這表明大多數交易者懷疑比特幣可以迅速達到新的歷史價值並押注它，從而導致巨大的銷售壓力。

Bitcoin is still in the acceleration phase

比特幣仍處於加速階段

However, the low volatility and price stalling do not bother most market experts who believe Bitcoin is on track to set a new all-time high. Fidelity VP of Digital Assets Research, Chris Kuiper, recently shared a report showing that Bitcoin is still in Acceleration Phase.

但是，低波動率和價格失速並不困擾大多數認為比特幣有望為歷史新高的市場專家的市場專家。數字資產研究的Fidelity VP Chris Kuiper最近分享了一份報告，表明比特幣仍處於加速階段。

According to the report, the Acceleration Phase is a period of high volatility and high profits, with investors pushing the assets to a peak price before they retreat to the Reversal Phase. As of May 13, when BTC was trading at $104,119, 99% of wallets were in profits.

根據該報告，加速階段是一個高波動性和高利潤的時期，投資者將資產推向峰值價格，然後才能撤退到逆轉階段。截至5月13日，當BTC的交易價格為104,119美元時，有99％的錢包是利潤。

Beyond that, Binance whale inflows to exchanges have dropped to the lowest level since November 2024, according to CryptoQuant. This is another positive indicator of future price expansion.

據CryptoQuant稱，除此之外，二手鯨流向交流的水平已經下降到2024年11月以來的最低水平。這是未來價格上漲的另一個積極指標。

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes that the Bitcoin market’s top for this cycle could be at $120,000 as long as the $90,000 support level is maintained.

同時，加密分析師阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）認為，只要維持90,000美元的支持水平，比特幣市場的最高水平可能為120,000美元。