与黄金相比

与黄金相比，比特币的波动率已下降到新的历史最低水平。 Vaneck的数字资产研究负责人Matthew Sigel分享了彭博终端的数据

Bitcoin's 30-day volatility dropped to a new all-time low compared to Gold, shared on X (formerly Twitter) by VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel.

与黄金相比，比特币的30天波动率下降到了新的历史最低点，这是Vaneck的数字资产研究负责人Matthew Sigel在X（以前称为Twitter）上的。

According to data from Bloomberg Terminal, which Sigel shared on X, BTC 30-day volatility fell to 28.70. This is the lowest volatility level for Bitcoin in more than 10 years and also meant that BTC volatility dropped below Gold's for the first time. The same data shows that Gold currently has a volatility of 33.49 while the SPX also has 40.45 within the same period.

根据Sigel在X上共享的彭博终端的数据，BTC 30天的波动率降至28.70。这是10年来比特币的最低波动率水平，也意味着BTC的波动率首次下降到黄金以下。相同的数据表明，当前黄金的波动率为33.49，而SPX在同一时期内也有40.45。

With Bitcoin volatility dropping, the volatility ratio for Bitcoin and Gold now stands at 0.87. It is the lowest level in a decade. Sigel considered this to be a good development for the flagship asset.

随着比特币波动率下降，比特币和黄金的波动率比率为0.87。这是十年来最低的水平。 Sigel认为这是旗舰资产的良好发展。

Volatility describes the degree of price variations for an asset over a period of time. When low, it is generally considered a positive sign of asset maturity and price stability, which will attract more institutional investors. This appears to be Sigel’s point of view.

波动性描述了一段时间内资产的价格变化程度。当低时，通常认为这是资产成熟度和价格稳定性的积极迹象，这将吸引更多的机构投资者。这似乎是西格尔的观点。

The VanEck researcher had earlier highlighted a recent research paper stating that CERN Physicists have been able to turn lead into Gold. He used this as further proof of the inherent value of Bitcoin as the scarcity is already programmed, unlike Gold, which may soon be produced in laboratories.

Vaneck研究人员早些时候强调了最近的一份研究论文，指出CERN物理学家能够将铅变成黄金。他将其用作比特币固有价值的进一步证明，因为已经编程了稀缺性，这与黄金不同，黄金可能很快就会在实验室中产生。

Low volatility may be bad for Bitcoin

低波动可能对比特币不利

However, not everyone agrees that low volatility is good for BTC at the current stage. As one user observed, Bitcoin is still in its early stages, and volatility expansion could attract more inflow, which could be bad for low volatility.

但是，并非所有人都同意，在当前阶段，低波动性对BTC有好处。正如一个用户观察到的那样，比特币仍处于早期阶段，波动性的扩展可能会吸引更多的流入，这可能对低波动性不利。

They wrote:

他们写道：

“Persistent low volatility regime would likely lead to many investors selling BTC (and our many complicated BTC proxies) to integrate for yield and opportunity elsewhere.”

“持续的低波动性制度可能会导致许多投资者出售BTC（以及我们许多复杂的BTC代理），以融入其他地方的收益和机会。”

While the likelihood of low volatility persisting is unknown, the concerns echoed real. The decline in Bitcoin volatility is because the asset has been stuck in price ranges for extended periods over the past month despite gaining more than 22% in the last 30 days.

虽然持续较低波动性的可能性尚不清楚，但担忧却与真实相呼应。比特币波动率的下降是因为尽管过去30天内增长了22％以上，但在过去一个月中，该资产已被困在价格范围内。

Initially, it was in the $93,000 to $96,000 range for most part of late April and early May. However, it surged above $100,000 on May 8 and has remained stuck in that price zone, not exceeding $104,000 even as other assets saw bigger shifts.

最初，在4月下旬和5月初的大部分时间里，它在93,000至96,000美元之间。但是，5月8日，它飙升至100,000美元以上，并且仍然停留在该价格区，即使其他资产发生了更大的变化，也不超过104,000美元。

Bitcoin’s low volatility has allowed it to maintain its current $103,000 value even as altcoins saw a decline in their value over the last 24 hours. Still, its failure to break the $104,000 resistance remains a concern.

比特币的低波动率使它能够保持其目前的103,000美元价值，即使Altcoins在过去24小时内的价值下降。尽管如此，它未能打破104,000美元的电阻仍然是一个问题。

However, experts have found an explanation for why Bitcoin is stuck. Onchain analyst Darkfost said that the derivatives market is to blame, pointing out that short positions against BTC have exceeded long positions since the asset climbed above $100,000.

但是，专家已经发现了为什么比特币被卡住的解释。 OnChain分析师Darkfost表示，衍生品市场应归咎于衍生产品市场，指出自资产攀升至100,000美元以上以来，针对BTC的短期头寸已超过了很长的头寸。

This suggests that most traders doubt that Bitcoin can hit a new all-time value quickly and are betting against it, leading to significant selling pressure.

这表明大多数交易者怀疑比特币可以迅速达到新的历史价值并押注它，从而导致巨大的销售压力。

Bitcoin is still in the acceleration phase

比特币仍处于加速阶段

However, the low volatility and price stalling do not bother most market experts who believe Bitcoin is on track to set a new all-time high. Fidelity VP of Digital Assets Research, Chris Kuiper, recently shared a report showing that Bitcoin is still in Acceleration Phase.

但是，低波动率和价格失速并不困扰大多数认为比特币有望为历史新高的市场专家的市场专家。数字资产研究的Fidelity VP Chris Kuiper最近分享了一份报告，表明比特币仍处于加速阶段。

According to the report, the Acceleration Phase is a period of high volatility and high profits, with investors pushing the assets to a peak price before they retreat to the Reversal Phase. As of May 13, when BTC was trading at $104,119, 99% of wallets were in profits.

根据该报告，加速阶段是一个高波动性和高利润的时期，投资者将资产推向峰值价格，然后才能撤退到逆转阶段。截至5月13日，当BTC的交易价格为104,119美元时，有99％的钱包是利润。

Beyond that, Binance whale inflows to exchanges have dropped to the lowest level since November 2024, according to CryptoQuant. This is another positive indicator of future price expansion.

据CryptoQuant称，除此之外，二手鲸流向交流的水平已经下降到2024年11月以来的最低水平。这是未来价格上涨的另一个积极指标。

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes that the Bitcoin market’s top for this cycle could be at $120,000 as long as the $90,000 support level is maintained.

同时，加密分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）认为，只要维持90,000美元的支持水平，比特币市场的最高水平可能为120,000美元。