比特幣未平倉量趨勢顯示投機者捲土重來

數據顯示，交易所的比特幣持倉量一直在上升，而融資利率最近卻轉為負值。

Bitcoin’s price has been struggling to gain any bullish momentum over the last few days. The cryptocurrency had managed to climb back above the $61,000 level yesterday, but it seems to have lost this support once more. At the time of writing, BTC’s price is trading around $59,800, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours.

過去幾天，比特幣的價格一直在努力獲得看漲勢頭。昨天，加密貨幣成功回升至 61,000 美元上方，但似乎再次失去了這項支撐。截至撰寫本文時，BTC 價格約為 59,800 美元，過去 24 小時下跌 0.5%。

In the past week, the coin has shown some promising strength as it recovered from lows of $58,000. However, further gains have been capped at the $61,000 to $62,000 resistance zone, which had led to a consolidation within a narrow range.

過去一周，該代幣從 58,000 美元的低點回升，顯示出一些有希望的強勢。然而，進一步的漲幅被限制在 61,000 美元至 62,000 美元的阻力區，這導致了窄幅盤整。

Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin (BTC) Open Interest Trend Suggests Speculators Are Back

相關閱讀 | TA：比特幣（BTC）未平倉合約趨勢顯示投機者捲土重來

Now, as Bitcoin’s price action stalls within this consolidation, key on-chain metrics may provide some insight into the next directional bias for the asset. One such metric is the Open Interest.

現在，隨著比特幣的價格走勢在這次整合中停滯不前，關鍵的鏈上指標可能會為該資產的下一個方向偏差提供一些見解。其中一項指標是未平倉合約。

Bitcoin Open Interest Shows New Speculative Activity

比特幣未平倉合約顯示新的投機活動

The Open Interest is an indicator that points towards the total number of derivatives contracts, whether short or long positions, that are currently open on all exchanges.

未平倉合約是一個指標，顯示所有交易所目前未平倉的衍生性商品合約（無論是空頭部位或多頭部位）的總數。

When the value of this metric goes up, it means that investors are opening up fresh positions on the market right now. As new positions generally come with an increase in the overall leverage present in the sector, this kind of trend can lead to higher volatility for the asset.

當該指標的數值上升時，意味著投資者現在正在市場上開設新部位。由於新頭寸通常伴隨著該行業整體槓桿率的增加，這種趨勢可能會導致資產波動性更高。

On the other hand, the indicator’s value observing a decline implies investors either are closing up positions of their own volition or are getting liquidated by their platform. The coin’s price may become more stable following this trend.

另一方面，該指標的價值出現下跌意味著投資者要么自願平倉，要么被平台清算。按照這一趨勢，代幣的價格可能會變得更加穩定。

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past few days:

現在，下面的圖表顯示了過去幾天比特幣未平倉合約的趨勢：

Bitcoin Open Interest had taken a hit earlier in this downtrend (from the graph). As BTC price fell towards the $58,000 level, a large amount of long positions were liquidated. After observing some sideways movement, the metric has been on its way back up again, suggesting investors have been opening new positions. This speculative activity can naturally lead to more volatility for the asset.

比特幣未平倉合約在這一下降趨勢的早期就受到了打擊（從圖表來看）。隨著BTC價格跌向58,000美元水平，大量多頭部位被清算。在觀察到一些橫盤走勢後，該指標再次回升，顯示投資者一直在開立新部位。這種投機活動自然會導致資產波動更大。

In theory, such volatility can take the asset in either direction, but depending on the composition of the positions present on the derivatives market, one direction may be more probable than the other.

理論上，這種波動性可以使資產朝任一方向發展，但根據衍生性商品市場上部位的組成，一個方向可能比另一個方向更有可能。

The indicator that sheds light on the structure of the sector is the second metric of interest here: the Funding Rate. This indicator basically keeps track of the amount of periodic fee that traders on the derivatives market are exchanging between each other.

揭示該產業結構的指標是第二個有趣的指標：資金利率。該指標基本上追蹤衍生性商品市場上的交易者之間相互交換的定期費用金額。

Bitcoin Funding Rate Is Negative, Suggesting Short Positions

比特幣資金利率為負，表示空頭部位

From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Funding Rate has been negative during this recent Open Interest increase. When the metric has a negative value, it means the short holders are paying a premium to the longs in order to hold onto their positions, so the new positions that have appeared in the sector recently would be short ones.

從圖表中可以看出，在最近的未平倉合約增加期間，比特幣融資利率一直為負值。當該指標為負值時，意味著空頭持有者為保住頭寸而向多頭支付溢價，因此最近該行業出現的新頭寸將是空頭頭寸。

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Because of the short-heavy market, it’s more likely that these investors betting on a bearish outcome get caught up in a mass liquidation event, thus taking Bitcoin is a more bullish direction. It only remains to be seen, though, as to how BTC’s price action would play out in the coming days.

由於市場空頭較多，這些押注看跌結果的投資者更有可能陷入大規模清算事件，因此買入比特幣是更看漲的方向。不過，未來幾天比特幣的價格走勢將如何發揮還有待觀察。