比特币未平仓量趋势表明投机者卷土重来

数据显示，交易所的比特币持仓量一直在上升，而融资利率最近却转为负值。

Bitcoin’s price has been struggling to gain any bullish momentum over the last few days. The cryptocurrency had managed to climb back above the $61,000 level yesterday, but it seems to have lost this support once more. At the time of writing, BTC’s price is trading around $59,800, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours.

过去几天，比特币的价格一直在努力获得看涨势头。昨天，加密货币成功回升至 61,000 美元上方，但似乎再次失去了这一支撑。截至撰写本文时，BTC 价格约为 59,800 美元，过去 24 小时下跌 0.5%。

In the past week, the coin has shown some promising strength as it recovered from lows of $58,000. However, further gains have been capped at the $61,000 to $62,000 resistance zone, which had led to a consolidation within a narrow range.

过去一周，该代币从 58,000 美元的低点回升，显示出一些有希望的强势。然而，进一步的涨幅被限制在 61,000 美元至 62,000 美元的阻力区，这导致了窄幅盘整。

Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin (BTC) Open Interest Trend Suggests Speculators Are Back

相关阅读 | TA：比特币（BTC）未平仓合约趋势表明投机者卷土重来

Now, as Bitcoin’s price action stalls within this consolidation, key on-chain metrics may provide some insight into the next directional bias for the asset. One such metric is the Open Interest.

现在，随着比特币的价格走势在这次整合中停滞不前，关键的链上指标可能会为该资产的下一个方向偏差提供一些见解。其中一项指标是未平仓合约。

Bitcoin Open Interest Shows New Speculative Activity

比特币未平仓合约显示新的投机活动

The Open Interest is an indicator that points towards the total number of derivatives contracts, whether short or long positions, that are currently open on all exchanges.

未平仓合约是一个指标，表明所有交易所当前未平仓的衍生品合约（无论是空头头寸还是多头头寸）的总数。

When the value of this metric goes up, it means that investors are opening up fresh positions on the market right now. As new positions generally come with an increase in the overall leverage present in the sector, this kind of trend can lead to higher volatility for the asset.

当该指标的值上升时，意味着投资者现在正在市场上开设新头寸。由于新头寸通常伴随着该行业整体杠杆率的增加，这种趋势可能会导致资产波动性更高。

On the other hand, the indicator’s value observing a decline implies investors either are closing up positions of their own volition or are getting liquidated by their platform. The coin’s price may become more stable following this trend.

另一方面，该指标的价值出现下跌意味着投资者要么自愿平仓，要么被平台清算。按照这一趋势，代币的价格可能会变得更加稳定。

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past few days:

现在，下面的图表显示了过去几天比特币未平仓合约的趋势：

Bitcoin Open Interest had taken a hit earlier in this downtrend (from the graph). As BTC price fell towards the $58,000 level, a large amount of long positions were liquidated. After observing some sideways movement, the metric has been on its way back up again, suggesting investors have been opening new positions. This speculative activity can naturally lead to more volatility for the asset.

比特币未平仓合约在这一下降趋势的早期就受到了打击（从图表来看）。随着BTC价格跌向58,000美元水平，大量多头头寸被清算。在观察到一些横盘走势后，该指标再次回升，表明投资者一直在开立新头寸。这种投机活动自然会导致资产波动更大。

In theory, such volatility can take the asset in either direction, but depending on the composition of the positions present on the derivatives market, one direction may be more probable than the other.

理论上，这种波动性可以使资产朝任一方向发展，但根据衍生品市场上头寸的构成，一个方向可能比另一个方向更有可能。

The indicator that sheds light on the structure of the sector is the second metric of interest here: the Funding Rate. This indicator basically keeps track of the amount of periodic fee that traders on the derivatives market are exchanging between each other.

揭示该行业结构的指标是第二个有趣的指标：资金利率。该指标基本上跟踪衍生品市场上的交易者之间相互交换的定期费用金额。

Bitcoin Funding Rate Is Negative, Suggesting Short Positions

比特币资金利率为负，表明空头头寸

From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Funding Rate has been negative during this recent Open Interest increase. When the metric has a negative value, it means the short holders are paying a premium to the longs in order to hold onto their positions, so the new positions that have appeared in the sector recently would be short ones.

从图表中可以看出，在最近的未平仓合约增加期间，比特币融资利率一直为负。当该指标为负值时，意味着空头持有者为保住头寸而向多头支付溢价，因此最近该行业出现的新头寸将是空头头寸。

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Because of the short-heavy market, it’s more likely that these investors betting on a bearish outcome get caught up in a mass liquidation event, thus taking Bitcoin is a more bullish direction. It only remains to be seen, though, as to how BTC’s price action would play out in the coming days.

由于市场空头较多，这些押注看跌结果的投资者更有可能陷入大规模清算事件，因此买入比特币是一个更看涨的方向。不过，未来几天比特币的价格走势将如何发挥还有待观察。