比特幣供應衝擊：損失、槓桿和迫在眉睫的底部？

分析比特幣在虧損、企業槓桿和潛在市場觸底情況下的供應動態。賣家疲憊是否預示著好轉？

Bitcoin's been on a rollercoaster, hasn't it? The buzz around "Bitcoin, supply, loss" is getting louder. Are we nearing the bottom, or is there more pain ahead? Let's dive into what's happening and what the experts are saying.

比特幣一直在坐過山車，不是嗎？圍繞“比特幣、供應、損失”的討論越來越響亮。我們是否已接近底部，還是前方還會有更多痛苦？讓我們深入了解正在發生的事情以及專家的說法。

Bitcoin's Circulating Supply: A Sea of Red?

比特幣的流通供應：一片紅海？

Lately, a significant chunk – about a third – of Bitcoin's circulating supply is being held at a loss. Ouch! This November slump has left many investors underwater, especially those who bought in at higher prices. Data wizards at CryptoQuant are showing that over 28% of Bitcoin's supply is in the red.

最近，比特幣流通供應量的很大一部分（約三分之一）處於虧損狀態。哎喲!今年11月的暴跌讓許多投資者陷入困境，尤其是那些以更高價格買入的投資者。 CryptoQuant 的數據嚮導顯示，超過 28% 的比特幣供應出現虧損。

But hold on a sec. According to analyst MorenoDV, history suggests these moments of high supply-at-a-loss can actually signal market bottoms. Think of it as the market equivalent of squeezing out the last drops of toothpaste – seller exhaustion, as they call it.

但等一下。分析師 MorenoDV 表示，歷史表明，這些供應短缺的時刻實際上可以預示市場觸底。可以將其視為市場上相當於擠出最後一滴牙膏的情況——他們稱之為“賣家疲憊”。

Seller Exhaustion: Is This the End of the Line?

賣家精疲力盡：這是最後的結局了嗎？

The idea of seller exhaustion is pretty simple: after a prolonged decline, the emotional strain kicks in, and even long-term holders might start taking profits or cutting their losses. Analyst JA Maartun points out that Bitcoin’s Net Taker Volume recently plunged, which could mean that sellers are running out of steam.

賣家疲憊的想法非常簡單：在長期下跌之後，情緒緊張開始出現，即使是長期持有者也可能開始獲利或減少損失。分析師 JA Maartun 指出，比特幣的淨接受量最近大幅下降，這可能意味著賣家正在失去動力。

Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, also sees signs of a classic exhaustion phase. Positive news doesn't lift the price, while negative news triggers immediate sell-offs. But, he adds, mass liquidations of long positions could signal a potential local bottom. Fingers crossed!

NoOnes 首席執行官雷·優素福 (Ray Youssef) 也看到了典型的疲憊階段的跡象。正面消息不會提升價格，而負面消息則會立即引發拋售。但他補充說，多頭頭寸的大規模清算可能預示著潛在的局部底部。手指交叉！

Corporate Bitcoin: Leverage and Risk

企業比特幣：槓桿和風險

Speaking of risk, let's talk about corporate Bitcoin treasuries. Remember when companies were loading up on BTC and their stock prices were soaring? Well, the easy money stopped flowing in the fall. Companies like Metaplanet are now turning to Bitcoin-backed credit to keep accumulating BTC without diluting their stock.

說到風險，我們來談談企業比特幣國債。還記得當公司大量買入比特幣並且股價飆升時嗎？嗯，容易賺到的錢在秋天就停止了。像 Metaplanet 這樣的公司現在正在轉向比特幣支持的信貸，以在不稀釋其股票的情況下繼續積累比特幣。

It's a clever move, but it comes with its own set of risks. Borrowing against BTC introduces collateral risk. A big drawdown could trigger margin calls and force asset sales at the worst possible time. Plus, floating-rate exposure means that if interest rates rise, the cost of carrying that debt goes up.

這是一個聰明的舉動，但也有其自身的風險。以 BTC 借款會帶來抵押風險。大幅回撤可能會引發追加保證金通知，並迫使資產在最糟糕的時間出售。另外，浮動利率意味著如果利率上升，承擔債務的成本就會上升。

The question is whether this strategy will become a template or a cautionary tale. If Metaplanet succeeds in closing its mNAV discount and stabilizing BTC, other companies might follow suit. But if BTC crashes, it could prove that borrowing against a volatile asset to buy more of it is a recipe for disaster.

問題是這一策略是否會成為一個模板或一個警示故事。如果 Metaplanet 成功關閉 mNAV 折扣並穩定 BTC，其他公司可能會效仿。但如果比特幣崩盤，則可能證明以波動性資產為抵押借款來購買更多資產會導致災難。

Looking Ahead: What's Next for Bitcoin?

展望未來：比特幣的下一步是什麼？

So, where do we go from here? Nic Puckrin from The Coin Bureau reminds us that even with the recent sell-off, Bitcoin is only about 20% below its all-time high. "This is crypto, not the bond market, so a 20% drop is often just a buying opportunity," he says.

那麼，我們該何去何從？ The Coin Bureau 的 Nic Puckrin 提醒我們，即使最近出現拋售，比特幣的價格也僅比歷史最高點低 20% 左右。 “這是加密貨幣市場，而不是債券市場，因此 20% 的下跌通常只是一個買入機會，”他說。

Shawn Young from MEXC Research is optimistic about a rise in Bitcoin, projecting it could reach the $125,000–$130,000 range by the end of the year if it breaks through key resistance levels. However, macroeconomic challenges, like the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, continue to put pressure on risk assets.

MEXC Research 的 Shawn Young 對比特幣的上漲持樂觀態度，預計如果突破關鍵阻力位，到今年年底比特幣價格可能會達到 125,000 美元至 130,000 美元的區間。然而，美聯儲的強硬立場等宏觀經濟挑戰繼續給風險資產帶來壓力。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up!

最後的想法：係好安全帶！

The next few weeks will be crucial. Will Bitcoin bounce back, or will we see further losses? One thing's for sure: it's going to be a bumpy ride. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just dipping your toes in the crypto waters, remember to do your research, manage your risk, and maybe, just maybe, hodl on tight. After all, in the wild world of Bitcoin, anything can happen!

接下來的幾週將是至關重要的。比特幣會反彈，還是會看到進一步的損失？有一點是肯定的：這將是一段坎坷的旅程。無論您是經驗豐富的投資者還是剛剛涉足加密貨幣領域，請記住進行研究，管理風險，並且也許（只是也許）要緊握。畢竟，在比特幣的狂野世界中，任何事情都有可能發生！