比特币供应冲击：损失、杠杆和迫在眉睫的底部？

分析比特币在亏损、企业杠杆和潜在市场触底情况下的供应动态。卖家疲惫是否预示着好转？

Bitcoin's been on a rollercoaster, hasn't it? The buzz around "Bitcoin, supply, loss" is getting louder. Are we nearing the bottom, or is there more pain ahead? Let's dive into what's happening and what the experts are saying.

比特币一直在坐过山车，不是吗？围绕“比特币、供应、损失”的讨论越来越响亮。我们是否已接近底部，还是前方还会有更多痛苦？让我们深入了解正在发生的事情以及专家的说法。

Bitcoin's Circulating Supply: A Sea of Red?

比特币的流通供应：一片红海？

Lately, a significant chunk – about a third – of Bitcoin's circulating supply is being held at a loss. Ouch! This November slump has left many investors underwater, especially those who bought in at higher prices. Data wizards at CryptoQuant are showing that over 28% of Bitcoin's supply is in the red.

最近，比特币流通供应量的很大一部分（约三分之一）处于亏损状态。哎哟!今年11月的暴跌让许多投资者陷入困境，尤其是那些以更高价格买入的投资者。 CryptoQuant 的数据向导显示，超过 28% 的比特币供应出现亏损。

But hold on a sec. According to analyst MorenoDV, history suggests these moments of high supply-at-a-loss can actually signal market bottoms. Think of it as the market equivalent of squeezing out the last drops of toothpaste – seller exhaustion, as they call it.

但等一下。分析师 MorenoDV 表示，历史表明，这些供应短缺的时刻实际上可以预示市场触底。可以将其视为市场上相当于挤出最后一滴牙膏的情况——他们称之为“卖家疲惫”。

Seller Exhaustion: Is This the End of the Line?

卖家精疲力尽：这是最后的结局了吗？

The idea of seller exhaustion is pretty simple: after a prolonged decline, the emotional strain kicks in, and even long-term holders might start taking profits or cutting their losses. Analyst JA Maartun points out that Bitcoin’s Net Taker Volume recently plunged, which could mean that sellers are running out of steam.

卖家疲惫的想法非常简单：在长期下跌之后，情绪紧张开始出现，即使是长期持有者也可能开始获利或减少损失。分析师 JA Maartun 指出，比特币的净接受量最近大幅下降，这可能意味着卖家正在失去动力。

Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, also sees signs of a classic exhaustion phase. Positive news doesn't lift the price, while negative news triggers immediate sell-offs. But, he adds, mass liquidations of long positions could signal a potential local bottom. Fingers crossed!

NoOnes 首席执行官雷·优素福 (Ray Youssef) 也看到了典型的疲惫阶段的迹象。正面消息不会提升价格，而负面消息则会立即引发抛售。但他补充说，多头头寸的大规模清算可能预示着潜在的局部底部。手指交叉！

Corporate Bitcoin: Leverage and Risk

企业比特币：杠杆和风险

Speaking of risk, let's talk about corporate Bitcoin treasuries. Remember when companies were loading up on BTC and their stock prices were soaring? Well, the easy money stopped flowing in the fall. Companies like Metaplanet are now turning to Bitcoin-backed credit to keep accumulating BTC without diluting their stock.

说到风险，我们来谈谈企业比特币国债。还记得当公司大量买入比特币并且股价飙升时吗？嗯，容易赚到的钱在秋天就停止了。像 Metaplanet 这样的公司现在正在转向比特币支持的信贷，以在不稀释其股票的情况下继续积累比特币。

It's a clever move, but it comes with its own set of risks. Borrowing against BTC introduces collateral risk. A big drawdown could trigger margin calls and force asset sales at the worst possible time. Plus, floating-rate exposure means that if interest rates rise, the cost of carrying that debt goes up.

这是一个聪明的举动，但也有其自身的风险。以 BTC 借款会带来抵押风险。大幅回撤可能会引发追加保证金通知，并迫使资产在最糟糕的时间出售。另外，浮动利率意味着如果利率上升，承担债务的成本就会上升。

The question is whether this strategy will become a template or a cautionary tale. If Metaplanet succeeds in closing its mNAV discount and stabilizing BTC, other companies might follow suit. But if BTC crashes, it could prove that borrowing against a volatile asset to buy more of it is a recipe for disaster.

问题是这一策略是否会成为一个模板或一个警示故事。如果 Metaplanet 成功关闭 mNAV 折扣并稳定 BTC，其他公司可能会效仿。但如果比特币崩盘，则可能证明以波动性资产为抵押借款来购买更多资产会导致灾难。

Looking Ahead: What's Next for Bitcoin?

展望未来：比特币的下一步是什么？

So, where do we go from here? Nic Puckrin from The Coin Bureau reminds us that even with the recent sell-off, Bitcoin is only about 20% below its all-time high. "This is crypto, not the bond market, so a 20% drop is often just a buying opportunity," he says.

那么，我们该何去何从？ The Coin Bureau 的 Nic Puckrin 提醒我们，即使最近出现抛售，比特币的价格也仅比历史最高点低 20% 左右。 “这是加密货币市场，而不是债券市场，因此 20% 的下跌通常只是一个买入机会，”他说。

Shawn Young from MEXC Research is optimistic about a rise in Bitcoin, projecting it could reach the $125,000–$130,000 range by the end of the year if it breaks through key resistance levels. However, macroeconomic challenges, like the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, continue to put pressure on risk assets.

MEXC Research 的 Shawn Young 对比特币的上涨持乐观态度，预计如果突破关键阻力位，到今年年底比特币价格可能会达到 125,000 美元至 130,000 美元的区间。然而，美联储的强硬立场等宏观经济挑战继续给风险资产带来压力。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up!

最后的想法：系好安全带！

The next few weeks will be crucial. Will Bitcoin bounce back, or will we see further losses? One thing's for sure: it's going to be a bumpy ride. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just dipping your toes in the crypto waters, remember to do your research, manage your risk, and maybe, just maybe, hodl on tight. After all, in the wild world of Bitcoin, anything can happen!

接下来的几周将是至关重要的。比特币会反弹，还是会看到进一步的损失？有一点是肯定的：这将是一段坎坷的旅程。无论您是经验丰富的投资者还是刚刚涉足加密货币领域，请记住进行研究，管理风险，并且也许（只是也许）要紧握。毕竟，在比特币的狂野世界中，任何事情都有可能发生！