比特幣已經經受了時間的考驗。今天購買比特幣的風險要比10年前要小得多

比特幣是MicroStrategy，Tesla，Block.One，Tether，SpaceX以及法國的Blockchain集團等數百家機構投資者財政部的一部分。

Some were fortunate enough to get bitcoins for a handful of figs, but aside from a few cypherpunks, very few people kept them. There was a time when you could visit a site to get 5 BTC for free and pizzas were bought for several thousand BTC.

有些人很幸運地為少數無花果而獲得了比特幣，但是​​除了幾個cypherpunks之外，很少有人保留它們。曾經有一段時間，您可以訪問一個網站免費獲得5 BTC，併購買了數千個BTC的比薩餅。

Millions of BTC were lost because no one really believed in it. Putting all of one’s savings into it was, rightly so, seen as irresponsible. Ten years later, that is no longer true.

數以百萬計的BTC丟失，因為沒有人真正相信它。正確地認為，將所有的積蓄投入其中是不負責任的。十年後，這不再是真的。

1 – Increased adoption and institutional support

1 - 增加的收養和機構支持

Bitcoin is part of the treasury of hundreds of institutional investors like Microstrategy, Tesla, Block.one, Tether, SpaceX, and also The Blockchain Group in France.

比特幣是MicroStrategy，Tesla，Block.One，Tether，SpaceX以及法國的Blockchain集團等數百家機構投資者財政部的一部分。

Not a week goes by without a major group announcing bitcoin as their main treasury asset. It was the Chinese textile firm Addentax (8,000 BTC) this week, and Twenty One Capital the week before (42,000 BTC). Soon Amazon?…

沒有一個主要的小組宣布比特幣作為其主要國庫資產，沒有一個星期的時間。本周是中國紡織品公司Addentax（8,000 BTC），在前一周（42,000 BTC）和二十一首資本。很快亞馬遜？ …

Major banks will soon accept bitcoin as collateral (Goldman Sachs is considering it). Twenty One Capital will be the first serious company to offer loans collateralized by BTC. The offered rate (12%) is spicy, but will decrease thanks to competition.

主要銀行將很快接受比特幣作為抵押品（高盛（Goldman Sachs）正在考慮）。二十一首資本將是第一家提供由BTC抵押的貸款的認真公司。提供的速度（12％）是辛辣的，但由於競爭而將降低。

States are also involved, and no small players. The government of Donald Trump clearly wants to make bitcoin the United States’ reserve currency, as highlighted by a recent Morgan Stanley estimate. Senator Cynthia Lummis even proposes selling gold to accumulate it.

國家也參與其中，沒有小球員。正如摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）最近的一項估計所強調的那樣，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）政府顯然希望將比特幣成為美國的儲備貨幣。參議員辛西婭·盧米斯（Cynthia Lummis）甚至提議出售黃金來積累黃金。

Overall, it is estimated that exchanges collectively have between 100 and 200 million active clients. That’s just as many potential voters to satisfy… And by the way, 50 million bitcoin addresses have a balance above zero, suggesting up to 50 million “hodlers” (probably ~15 million people).

總體而言，據估計，交易所共同擁有100至2億活躍客戶。這是許多潛在的選民要滿足……順便說一句，5000萬比特幣地址的餘額高於零，建議高達5000萬個“霍德勒人”（大概約有1500萬人）。

2 – Accessibility and security

2 - 可訪問性和安全性

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States last year was a turning point. Over 41 billion dollars have been invested via BlackRock, Fidelity, and others.

去年美國比特幣ETF的批准是一個轉折點。通過BlackRock，Fidelity和其他人投資了超過410億美元。

The regulatory easing brought by the new US government suggests that major banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citi will join in the coming months. U.S. Bank (the fifth largest retail bank) and Revolut already hold bitcoins on behalf of their clients.

新美國政府帶來的監管緩解表明，BNY Mellon，State Street和Citi等主要銀行將在未來幾個月內加入。美國銀行（第五大零售銀行）和Revolut已經代表其客戶持有比特幣。

Buying and storing bitcoins is no longer as complex and risky. While one million BTC were hacked between 2009 and 2020, only 4,500 BTC have been hacked since 2020. That’s 450 million dollars, compared with 130 billion dollars in bank card fraud.

購買和存儲比特幣不再那麼複雜和風險。雖然2009年至2020年之間100萬BTC被黑客入侵，但自2020年以來，只有4,500 BTC被黑客入侵。這是4.5億美元，而銀行卡欺詐的1300億美元。

It is now child’s play to buy bitcoins via user-friendly and secure applications. Not to mention the myriad of hardware wallets allowing full ownership of bitcoins (Trezor, Ledger, Safepal, etc.).

現在，通過用戶友好且安全的應用程序購買比特幣是孩子的遊戲。更不用說無數的硬件錢包允許擁有比特幣（Trezor，Ledger，Safepal等）的所有權。

The Bitcoin network is also much safer than ten years ago thanks to the increase in “hashrate.” We are now at 800 billion billion hashes per second (800,000,000,000,000,000,000 h/s).

由於“ Hashrate”的增加，比特幣網絡也比十年前更安全。我們現在的每秒為8000億哈希（800萬億h/s）。

Reaching 800 EH/s would require manufacturing 4 million Antminer S21s and investing 12 billion dollars. In short, the likelihood of a state taking control of the network to undermine its growth has become minimal.

達到800 EH/S將需要製造400萬Antminer S21並投資120億美元。簡而言之，國家控製網絡破壞其增長的可能性變得很少。

This computing power ensures true decentralization and strengthens the long-term investment thesis.

這種計算能力確保了真正的權力下放，並加強了長期投資論文。

3 – Geopolitical and economic contexts

3 - 地緣政治和經濟背景

The global economic landscape has changed significantly since 2015. The 25% inflation of the last five years has severely eroded purchasing power. For many, it was their first experience with high inflation after 30 years of controlled inflation, around 2% per year.

自2015年以來，全球經濟格局發生了巨大變化。過去五年的25％通貨膨脹嚴重侵蝕了購買力。對於許多人來說，這是他們第一次經過30年的控制通貨膨脹經過高通貨膨脹的經驗，每年約2％。

Some countries have experienced much more dramatic inflation rates. Notably Turkey (750%), Argentina (2,500%), and Venezuela (1,000,000% in 2023).

一些國家經歷了更大的通貨膨脹率。特別是土耳其（750％），阿根廷（2,500％）和委內瑞拉（2023年為1,000,000％）。

It is therefore natural that bitcoin is increasingly attracting interest as a hedge against the depreciation of national currencies. BlackRock’s CEO did not mince words in his annual letter to investors:

因此，自然而然的是，比特幣越來越引起人們對國家貨幣貶值的對沖的興趣。貝萊克（Blackrock）的首席執行官在他給投資者的年度信中沒有造成言語：

The United States has long benefited from the dollar’s status as the dominant global reserve currency. But this privilege is not guaranteed in perpetuity. If the U.S. fails to control its debt and allows its deficits to grow uncontrollably, Bitcoin could wrest its status as the international reserve currency.

美國長期以來一直從美元的全球儲備貨幣中受益。但是，這種特權不能永久保證。如果美國未能控制債務並允許其赤字無法控制地增加，那麼比特幣就可以奪取其作為國際儲備貨幣的地位。

Add economic difficulties to geopolitical tensions, and it is not very surprising that a stateless, uncensorable currency like bitcoin stands out.

在地緣政治緊張局勢中加上經濟困難，並且像比特幣這樣的無國狀，無可判斷性的貨幣脫穎而出並不奇怪。

Taiwan, a country at high risk in the event of an escalation in Sino-American tensions, has understood this well. Taiwanese legislator Ko Ju-Chun recently called for adding bitcoin to the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

台灣是一個在中美洲緊張局勢升級的情況下，一個處於高風險的國家，對此非常了解。台灣立法者Ko Ju-Chun最近呼籲在該國的外匯儲備中增加比特幣。

His main argument was that “bitcoin cannot be subjected to a [Chinese] blockade/embargo”. This is the island’

他的主要論點是“比特幣不能受到[中國]封鎖/禁運的束縛”。這是島