比特幣開放興趣週期信號可能的合併階段

比特幣開放興趣的急劇變化可能暗示著加密貨幣市場的下一個大舉動

A sharp shift in Bitcoin’s Open Interest Delta may be hinting at the next big move in the crypto market, according to a recent analysis by Alphractal.

根據Alphractal的最新分析，比特幣開放興趣的興趣急劇轉變可能暗示著加密貨幣市場的下一個重大舉動。

The current trends and observations are raising an interesting question: could history be repeating itself?

當前的趨勢和觀察結果提出了一個有趣的問題：歷史可以重演嗎？

The analysis highlights that the 30-day aggregated Open Interest Delta has now reached levels identical to those seen during previous major breakouts. This indicator, which reflects the net change in long versus short positions, typically ranges between -500 and +500, with a large delta indicating strong directional trends.

分析強調，30天的匯總開放興趣Delta現在達到的水平與以前的重大突破相同。該指標反映了長位置與短位置的淨變化，通常在-500至+500之間，大三角洲表示強烈的方向趨勢。

When plotted, this indicator reveals a two-phase cycle:

繪製時，該指標揭示了一個兩相週期：

Phase 1: A slow descent into negative territory, usually taking around six months to reach -500.

第1階段：緩慢下降到負地區，通常需要大約六個月才能達到-500。

Phase 2: A rapid ascent back to positive levels, often completed within two to three months.

第2階段：快速上升到正水平，通常在兩到三個月內完成。

This cyclical behavior suggests a rhythm of buildup and release, largely driven by institutional market participants.

這種週期性的行為表明，建立和釋放的節奏在很大程度上是由機構市場參與者驅動的。

According to Alphractal, “We can clearly see that the 180-day Open Interest Delta is now approaching zero after an extended period in positive territory. This signals the potential for a new phase of volatility and the onset of another consolidation period.”

根據Alphractal的說法，“我們可以清楚地看到，在積極領域長期長期後，180天的開放利息目前接近零。這表明了新的波動性階段的潛力和另一個合併時期的發作。”

The post also notes that Open Interest growth in 2025 has not matched the pace seen in the 2023-2024 rallies. However, the timing of these cycles, consistently beginning in October, suggests a fractal pattern in whale-driven risk appetite, potentially following an annual rhythm.

該帖子還指出，2025年的開放興趣增長與2023-2024集會中的步伐不符。但是，這些週期的時機始終從10月開始，這表明鯨魚驅動的風險食慾是一種分形模式，可能是在年度節奏之後的。

“If we look closely, we can see that major cycles in BTC Open Interest tend to begin in October, signaling a potential fractal pattern in how whales drive market risk appetite throughout the year.”

“如果我們仔細觀察，我們可以看到BTC開放興趣的主要周期往往會在10月開始，這表明鯨魚如何推動全年捕獲市場風險食慾的潛在分形模式。”

Final Takeaway

最後一個收穫

“One of the best ways to gauge the risk appetite of large whales is by watching Open Interest across major exchanges,” concludes Alphractal.

Alphractal總結說：“衡量大鯨魚風險的最佳方法之一是觀察跨主要交流的開放興趣。”

With the data now echoing previous cycles, traders should stay alert. Whether we’re headed for a new breakout or deeper consolidation, Open Interest remains one of the most reliable metrics for anticipating Bitcoin’s next big move.

隨著數據現在與以前的周期相呼應，交易者應保持警惕。無論我們是要進行新的突破還是更深入的整合，開放興趣仍然是預期比特幣的下一個大舉動的最可靠指標之一。