比特币已经经受了时间的考验。今天购买比特币的风险要比10年前要小得多

比特币是MicroStrategy，Tesla，Block.One，Tether，SpaceX以及法国的Blockchain集团等数百家机构投资者财政部的一部分。

Some were fortunate enough to get bitcoins for a handful of figs, but aside from a few cypherpunks, very few people kept them. There was a time when you could visit a site to get 5 BTC for free and pizzas were bought for several thousand BTC.

有些人很幸运地为少数无花果而获得了比特币，但是​​除了几个cypherpunks之外，很少有人保留它们。曾经有一段时间，您可以访问一个网站免费获得5 BTC，并购买了数千个BTC的比萨饼。

Millions of BTC were lost because no one really believed in it. Putting all of one’s savings into it was, rightly so, seen as irresponsible. Ten years later, that is no longer true.

数以百万计的BTC丢失，因为没有人真正相信它。正确地认为，将所有的积蓄投入其中是不负责任的。十年后，这不再是真的。

1 – Increased adoption and institutional support

1 - 增加的收养和机构支持

Bitcoin is part of the treasury of hundreds of institutional investors like Microstrategy, Tesla, Block.one, Tether, SpaceX, and also The Blockchain Group in France.

比特币是MicroStrategy，Tesla，Block.One，Tether，SpaceX以及法国的Blockchain集团等数百家机构投资者财政部的一部分。

Not a week goes by without a major group announcing bitcoin as their main treasury asset. It was the Chinese textile firm Addentax (8,000 BTC) this week, and Twenty One Capital the week before (42,000 BTC). Soon Amazon?…

没有一个主要的小组宣布比特币作为其主要国库资产，没有一个星期的时间。本周是中国纺织品公司Addentax（8,000 BTC），在前一周（42,000 BTC）和二十一首资本。很快亚马逊？…

Major banks will soon accept bitcoin as collateral (Goldman Sachs is considering it). Twenty One Capital will be the first serious company to offer loans collateralized by BTC. The offered rate (12%) is spicy, but will decrease thanks to competition.

主要银行将很快接受比特币作为抵押品（高盛（Goldman Sachs）正在考虑）。二十一首资本将是第一家提供由BTC抵押的贷款的认真公司。提供的速度（12％）是辛辣的，但由于竞争而将降低。

States are also involved, and no small players. The government of Donald Trump clearly wants to make bitcoin the United States’ reserve currency, as highlighted by a recent Morgan Stanley estimate. Senator Cynthia Lummis even proposes selling gold to accumulate it.

国家也参与其中，没有小球员。正如摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）最近的一项估计所强调的那样，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）政府显然希望将比特币成为美国的储备货币。参议员辛西娅·卢米斯（Cynthia Lummis）甚至提议出售黄金来积累黄金。

Overall, it is estimated that exchanges collectively have between 100 and 200 million active clients. That’s just as many potential voters to satisfy… And by the way, 50 million bitcoin addresses have a balance above zero, suggesting up to 50 million “hodlers” (probably ~15 million people).

总体而言，据估计，交易所共同拥有100至2亿活跃客户。这是许多潜在的选民要满足……顺便说一句，5000万比特币地址的余额高于零，建议高达5000万个“霍德勒人”（大概约有1500万人）。

2 – Accessibility and security

2 - 可访问性和安全性

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States last year was a turning point. Over 41 billion dollars have been invested via BlackRock, Fidelity, and others.

去年美国比特币ETF的批准是一个转折点。通过BlackRock，Fidelity和其他人投资了超过410亿美元。

The regulatory easing brought by the new US government suggests that major banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citi will join in the coming months. U.S. Bank (the fifth largest retail bank) and Revolut already hold bitcoins on behalf of their clients.

新美国政府带来的监管缓解表明，BNY Mellon，State Street和Citi等主要银行将在未来几个月内加入。美国银行（第五大零售银行）和Revolut已经代表其客户持有比特币。

Buying and storing bitcoins is no longer as complex and risky. While one million BTC were hacked between 2009 and 2020, only 4,500 BTC have been hacked since 2020. That’s 450 million dollars, compared with 130 billion dollars in bank card fraud.

购买和存储比特币不再那么复杂和风险。虽然2009年至2020年之间100万BTC被黑客入侵，但自2020年以来，只有4,500 BTC被黑客入侵。这是4.5亿美元，而银行卡欺诈的1300亿美元。

It is now child’s play to buy bitcoins via user-friendly and secure applications. Not to mention the myriad of hardware wallets allowing full ownership of bitcoins (Trezor, Ledger, Safepal, etc.).

现在，通过用户友好且安全的应用程序购买比特币是孩子的游戏。更不用说无数的硬件钱包允许拥有比特币（Trezor，Ledger，Safepal等）的所有权。

The Bitcoin network is also much safer than ten years ago thanks to the increase in “hashrate.” We are now at 800 billion billion hashes per second (800,000,000,000,000,000,000 h/s).

由于“ Hashrate”的增加，比特币网络也比十年前更安全。我们现在的每秒为8000亿哈希（800万亿h/s）。

Reaching 800 EH/s would require manufacturing 4 million Antminer S21s and investing 12 billion dollars. In short, the likelihood of a state taking control of the network to undermine its growth has become minimal.

达到800 EH/S将需要制造400万Antminer S21并投资120亿美元。简而言之，国家控制网络破坏其增长的可能性变得很少。

This computing power ensures true decentralization and strengthens the long-term investment thesis.

这种计算能力确保了真正的权力下放，并加强了长期投资论文。

3 – Geopolitical and economic contexts

3 - 地缘政治和经济背景

The global economic landscape has changed significantly since 2015. The 25% inflation of the last five years has severely eroded purchasing power. For many, it was their first experience with high inflation after 30 years of controlled inflation, around 2% per year.

自2015年以来，全球经济格局发生了巨大变化。过去五年的25％通货膨胀严重侵蚀了购买力。对于许多人来说，这是他们第一次经过30年的控制通货膨胀经过高通货膨胀的经验，每年约2％。

Some countries have experienced much more dramatic inflation rates. Notably Turkey (750%), Argentina (2,500%), and Venezuela (1,000,000% in 2023).

一些国家经历了更大的通货膨胀率。特别是土耳其（750％），阿根廷（2,500％）和委内瑞拉（2023年为1,000,000％）。

It is therefore natural that bitcoin is increasingly attracting interest as a hedge against the depreciation of national currencies. BlackRock’s CEO did not mince words in his annual letter to investors:

因此，自然而然的是，比特币越来越引起人们对国家货币贬值的对冲的兴趣。贝莱克（Blackrock）的首席执行官在他给投资者的年度信中没有造成言语：

The United States has long benefited from the dollar’s status as the dominant global reserve currency. But this privilege is not guaranteed in perpetuity. If the U.S. fails to control its debt and allows its deficits to grow uncontrollably, Bitcoin could wrest its status as the international reserve currency.

美国长期以来一直从美元的全球储备货币中受益。但是，这种特权不能永久保证。如果美国未能控制债务并允许其赤字无法控制地增加，那么比特币就可以夺取其作为国际储备货币的地位。

Add economic difficulties to geopolitical tensions, and it is not very surprising that a stateless, uncensorable currency like bitcoin stands out.

在地缘政治紧张局势中加上经济困难，并且像比特币这样的无国状，无可判断性的货币脱颖而出并不奇怪。

Taiwan, a country at high risk in the event of an escalation in Sino-American tensions, has understood this well. Taiwanese legislator Ko Ju-Chun recently called for adding bitcoin to the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

台湾是一个在中美洲紧张局势升级的情况下，一个处于高风险的国家，对此非常了解。台湾立法者Ko Ju-Chun最近呼吁在该国的外汇储备中增加比特币。

His main argument was that “bitcoin cannot be subjected to a [Chinese] blockade/embargo”. This is the island’

他的主要论点是“比特币不能受到[中国]封锁/禁运的束缚”。这是岛