隨著價格集會，比特幣短期持有人坐在未實現的利潤

比特幣最近向110,000美元的集會集中註意力集中在短期投資者的行為上。鏈上指標表明，持有人之間未實現的利潤正在上升

Bitcoin's recent rally toward $110,000 has focused attention on short-term investor behavior. On-chain indicators suggest unrealized profits are rising among holders who acquired BTC in the past one to three months.

比特幣最近向110,000美元的集會集中註意力集中在短期投資者的行為上。鏈上指標表明，在過去一到三個月中獲得BTC的持有人之間未實現的利潤正在上升。

According to blockchain analytics, this group currently holds an average unrealized gain of 27%, raising the possibility of increased selling pressure if a previous target is reached.

根據區塊鏈分析，該集團目前的平均未實現增益為27％，如果達到先前的目標，則增加了銷售壓力的可能性。

Data from CryptoQuant, as analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported, highlights that when this short-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric surpasses 40%, profit-taking typically begins, often leading to price pullbacks.

正如分析師Axel Adler Jr.報導說的那樣，來自CryptoQuant的數據強調，當此短期持有人淨未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）度量達到40％時，通常會開始利潤，通常會導致價格下跌。

"The current unrealized profit indicator for Short-Term Holders (1-3 months) is 27%. Over the past 4 years, when this metric went above 40%, this cohort began selling coins – this created strong price pressure.1. Current NUPL (Short-Term Holders, 1–3 m): 27%2.… pic.twitter.com/izQAWOhhId"

“當前的短期持有人（1-3個月）的目前未實現的利潤指標為27％。在過去的4年中，當該指標超過40％時，該隊列開始出售硬幣 - 這造成了強大的價格壓力。1。當前的NUPL（短期持有人，1-3 m，1-3 m）：27％：27％2。…

With the current growth rate at approximately 0.818% points per day, this level could be crossed in about 16 days. If that pace continues, the NUPL may reach 40% by June 11, 2025, projecting a possible Bitcoin price near $162,000.

由於目前的增長率約為每天0.818％，因此該水平可以在大約16天內越過。如果這種速度繼續下去，NUPL可能到2025年6月11日達到40％，預計比特幣價格接近162,000美元。

Profit-Taking Patterns Identified in Past Cycles

過去週期中確定的利潤模式

Historical market tops for Bitcoin have repeatedly aligned with elevated short-term holder profits.

比特幣的歷史市場頂部與短期持有人的利潤提高一再保持一致。

In November 2021, when this cohort’s NUPL margin reached 47%, Bitcoin experienced a local high followed by a correction. Similar outcomes were recorded in March 2022 (44%), July 2023 (47%), and most notably in March 2024, when the metric peaked at 66%.

2021年11月，當該隊列的NUPL邊緣達到47％時，比特幣經歷了局部高位，然後進行了校正。 2022年3月（44％），2023年7月（47％），最著名的是2024年3月，當時指標以66％的峰值記錄了類似的結果。

After these events, the prices went down, and so did the NUPL. If the NUPL is negative, it shows that early investors are now losing money due to prices falling below their original purchase price. These changes from high profits to losses have helped shape the Bitcoin market’s movement.

這些事件發生後，價格下跌，NUPL也下降了。如果NUPL為負，則表明，由於價格低於其原始購買價格，早期的投資者現在正在虧損。從高利潤到損失的這些變化有助於塑造比特幣市場的運動。

From late May 2025, the NUPL of 27% points to current earnings in the profit zone, yet below the previous levels that caused broad disturbances. Bitcoin's position supports its growth, but continuous monitoring is necessary as the indicator approaches significant values.

從2025年5月下旬開始，在利潤區的當前收入為27％，但低於先前的水平，引起了廣泛的干擾。比特幣的立場支持其增長，但是隨著指標接近顯著的值，必須進行連續監測。

On-Chain Activity Signals Divergence

鏈活動信號差異

Even though prices are high, Bitcoin's network is less active than it was earlier. Transaction data reveals less activity on the network as prices went above $90,000. Starting through mid-2023 and into early 2024, the number of daily active addresses rose above 1 million. Consequently, since mid-2024, the number has decreased between 700,000 and 900,000.

即使價格很高，比特幣的網絡也比以前更不活躍。交易數據顯示，隨著價格超過$ 90,000，網絡的活動較少。從2023年中期到2024年初，每日活動地址的數量上升到100萬以上。因此，自2024年中期以來，該數量在700,000至900,000中減少。

Some analysts view this divergence between price and user engagement as indicative of reduced retail participation. The growth in unrealized profits alongside falling address activity may signal an increasing reliance on off-chain markets, such as institutional investment platforms or derivative instruments, rather than organic user adoption.

一些分析師認為價格和用戶參與度之間的這種差異表明零售參與減少。未實現的利潤和下降地址活動的增長可能表明越來越多地依賴鍊鍊市場，例如機構投資平台或衍生工具，而不是有機用戶的採用。

If current trends continue, Bitcoin may test its short-term holder profit threshold by mid-June. Market participants are watching whether NUPL crosses the 40% mark, which could limit the beginning of another sell phase.

如果目前的趨勢繼續下去，比特幣可能會在6月中旬測試其短期持有人的利潤門檻。市場參與者正在觀察NUPL是否越過40％的成績，這可能會限制另一個賣階段的開始。