随着价格集会，比特币短期持有人坐在未实现的利润

比特币最近向110,000美元的集会集中注意力集中在短期投资者的行为上。链上指标表明，持有人之间未实现的利润正在上升

Bitcoin's recent rally toward $110,000 has focused attention on short-term investor behavior. On-chain indicators suggest unrealized profits are rising among holders who acquired BTC in the past one to three months.

比特币最近向110,000美元的集会集中注意力集中在短期投资者的行为上。链上指标表明，在过去一到三个月中获得BTC的持有人之间未实现的利润正在上升。

According to blockchain analytics, this group currently holds an average unrealized gain of 27%, raising the possibility of increased selling pressure if a previous target is reached.

根据区块链分析，该集团目前的平均未实现增益为27％，如果达到先前的目标，则增加了销售压力的可能性。

Data from CryptoQuant, as analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported, highlights that when this short-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric surpasses 40%, profit-taking typically begins, often leading to price pullbacks.

正如分析师Axel Adler Jr.报道说的那样，来自CryptoQuant的数据强调，当此短期持有人净未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL）度量达到40％时，通常会开始利润，通常会导致价格下跌。

"The current unrealized profit indicator for Short-Term Holders (1-3 months) is 27%. Over the past 4 years, when this metric went above 40%, this cohort began selling coins – this created strong price pressure.1. Current NUPL (Short-Term Holders, 1–3 m): 27%2.… pic.twitter.com/izQAWOhhId"

“当前的短期持有人（1-3个月）的目前未实现的利润指标为27％。在过去的4年中，当该指标超过40％时，该队列开始出售硬币 - 这造成了强大的价格压力。1。当前的NUPL（短期持有人，1-3 m，1-3 m）：27％：27％2。…

With the current growth rate at approximately 0.818% points per day, this level could be crossed in about 16 days. If that pace continues, the NUPL may reach 40% by June 11, 2025, projecting a possible Bitcoin price near $162,000.

由于目前的增长率约为每天0.818％，因此该水平可以在大约16天内越过。如果这种速度继续下去，NUPL可能到2025年6月11日达到40％，预计比特币价格接近162,000美元。

Profit-Taking Patterns Identified in Past Cycles

过去周期中确定的利润模式

Historical market tops for Bitcoin have repeatedly aligned with elevated short-term holder profits.

比特币的历史市场顶部与短期持有人的利润提高一再保持一致。

In November 2021, when this cohort’s NUPL margin reached 47%, Bitcoin experienced a local high followed by a correction. Similar outcomes were recorded in March 2022 (44%), July 2023 (47%), and most notably in March 2024, when the metric peaked at 66%.

2021年11月，当该队列的NUPL边缘达到47％时，比特币经历了局部高位，然后进行了校正。 2022年3月（44％），2023年7月（47％），最著名的是2024年3月，当时指标以66％的峰值记录了类似的结果。

After these events, the prices went down, and so did the NUPL. If the NUPL is negative, it shows that early investors are now losing money due to prices falling below their original purchase price. These changes from high profits to losses have helped shape the Bitcoin market’s movement.

这些事件发生后，价格下跌，NUPL也下降了。如果NUPL为负，则表明，由于价格低于其原始购买价格，早期的投资者现在正在亏损。从高利润到损失的这些变化有助于塑造比特币市场的运动。

From late May 2025, the NUPL of 27% points to current earnings in the profit zone, yet below the previous levels that caused broad disturbances. Bitcoin's position supports its growth, but continuous monitoring is necessary as the indicator approaches significant values.

从2025年5月下旬开始，在利润区的当前收入为27％，但低于先前的水平，引起了广泛的干扰。比特币的立场支持其增长，但是随着指标接近显着的值，必须进行连续监测。

On-Chain Activity Signals Divergence

链活动信号差异

Even though prices are high, Bitcoin's network is less active than it was earlier. Transaction data reveals less activity on the network as prices went above $90,000. Starting through mid-2023 and into early 2024, the number of daily active addresses rose above 1 million. Consequently, since mid-2024, the number has decreased between 700,000 and 900,000.

即使价格很高，比特币的网络也比以前更不活跃。交易数据显示，随着价格超过$ 90,000，网络的活动较少。从2023年中期到2024年初，每日活动地址的数量上升到100万以上。因此，自2024年中期以来，该数量在700,000至900,000中减少。

Some analysts view this divergence between price and user engagement as indicative of reduced retail participation. The growth in unrealized profits alongside falling address activity may signal an increasing reliance on off-chain markets, such as institutional investment platforms or derivative instruments, rather than organic user adoption.

一些分析师认为价格和用户参与度之间的这种差异表明零售参与减少。未实现的利润和下降地址活动的增长可能表明越来越多地依赖链链市场，例如机构投资平台或衍生工具，而不是有机用户的采用。

If current trends continue, Bitcoin may test its short-term holder profit threshold by mid-June. Market participants are watching whether NUPL crosses the 40% mark, which could limit the beginning of another sell phase.

如果目前的趋势继续下去，比特币可能会在6月中旬测试其短期持有人的利润门槛。市场参与者正在观察NUPL是否越过40％的成绩，这可能会限制另一个卖阶段的开始。