STH-MVRV 比率跌至 1.0 以下，比特幣短期持有者紛紛投降

8 月 5 日，比特幣突然跌破 5 萬美元，導致加密貨幣市場的許多部位被清算。這種突然的下降，級聯成

Bitcoin’s downturn earlier in the month, which saw the pioneer cryptocurrency’s price briefly crash below $50,000, was largely driven by an overreaction from short-term holders, a recent report has shown.

最近的一份報告顯示，本月早些時候，比特幣的低迷導致了這種先驅加密貨幣的價格短暫跌破 5 萬美元，這主要是由於短期持有者的過度反應造成的。

According to the report from Glassnode, a leading blockchain analysis and intelligence firm, short-term holders were quick to capitulate and liquidate their positions in the face of the initial market dip. This trend, the report said, played a significant role in amplifying the downturn.

根據領先的區塊鏈分析和情報公司 Glassnode 的報告，面對最初的市場下跌，短期持有者很快就投降並清算了頭寸。報告稱，這一趨勢在加劇經濟衰退方面發揮了重要作用。

Short-term holders are typically defined as those investors who hold onto their cryptocurrency assets for a relatively brief period, often around a month or so. As such, they are quickly prone to capitulating during periods of price corrections. This trend has particularly been evident in the latest Bitcoin price correction/consolidation, which has lasted far longer than many investors expected.

短期持有者通常被定義為那些在相對較短的時間內（通常約為一個月左右）持有加密貨幣資產的投資者。因此，在價格調整期間，他們很快就會屈服。這種趨勢在最近的比特幣價格調整/整合中尤其明顯，其持續時間遠遠超出許多投資者的預期。

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As highlighted in Glassnode’s latest on-chain report, a key metric that took a hit was the STH-MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which fell below the critical equilibrium value of 1.0.

正如 Glassnode 最新的鏈上報告所強調的那樣，受到打擊的一個關鍵指標是 STH-MVRV（市場價值與實現價值）比率，該比率跌破了 1.0 的臨界均衡值。

When the STH-MVRV ratio dips below 1.0, it suggests that, on average, new investors are holding their Bitcoin at a loss rather than a profit. These unrealized losses, often referred to as paper losses, occur when the market value of an asset is lower than the price at which it was acquired, but the asset has not yet been sold. This is different from realized losses, which arise from completed trades.

當 STH-MVRV 比率低於 1.0 時，表示新投資者平均持有比特幣是虧損的，而不是盈利的。這些未實現的損失，通常稱為帳面損失，發生在資產的市場價值低於收購價格但資產尚未出售時。這與已完成交易產生的已實現損失不同。

While periods of brief unrealized loss are common during bull markets, they tend to put selling pressure on the price of Bitcoin. This is because sustained periods of STH-MVRV trading below 1.0 often lead to a higher likelihood of panic and capitulation among short-term holders. Notably, this phenomenon contributed to the Bitcoin crash earlier in the month.

雖然短暫的未實現損失在牛市期間很常見，但它們往往會對比特幣的價格造成拋售壓力。這是因為 STH-MVRV 交易持續低於 1.0 往往會導致短期持有者出現恐慌和投降的可能性更高。值得注意的是，這種現象導致了本月稍早的比特幣崩盤。

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Furthermore, Glassnode’s report showed this correlation and selling pressure might already be materializing, with the STH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) also trading below 1.0. The STH-SOPR ratio measures the profitability of spent outputs, indicating whether assets are being sold at a profit or loss.

此外，Glassnode 的報告顯示，這種相關性和拋售壓力可能已成為現實，STH-SOPR（支出產出利潤率）也低於 1.0。 STH-SOPR 比率衡量已用產出的獲利能力，顯示資產出售是否為獲利或虧損。

What this essentially means is that many short-term investors are more taking realized losses than profit. This follows the claim that many short-term holders have been overreacting to the price corrections.

這本質上意味著許多短期投資者更多地接受已實現的損失而不是利潤。此前有說法稱，許多短期持有者對價格調整反應過度。

While short-term holders have carried most of the losses across the recent downturn, long-term holders remain strong. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $59,540 and is down by 2.15% in the past 24 hours.

雖然短期持有者在最近的經濟低迷中承擔了大部分損失，但長期持有者仍然強勁。截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 59,540 美元，在過去 24 小時內下跌了 2.15%。