比特幣的Sharpe比率與黃金收斂，表明相似的風險調整後收益，支持其價值儲存的角色。

比特幣的Sharpe比率與黃金收斂，表明相似的風險調整後收益，支持其價值儲存的角色。

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

* Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio converges with gold’s, indicating similar risk-adjusted returns, supporting its store-of-value role.

*比特幣的Sharpe比率與黃金相聚，表明相似的風險調整後收益，支持其價值儲存的角色。

* Gold outperformed Bitcoin in Q1 2025 with a 30.33% price gain versus Bitcoin’s 3.84%, driven by economic uncertainty.

*在第1季度2025年，黃金的價格增長了30.33％的比特幣，而比特幣為3.84％，這是由經濟不確定性驅動的。

* Bitcoin ETF inflows are recovering, and analysts predict BTC could reach $110,000–$444,000 in 2025.

*比特幣ETF流入正在恢復，分析師預測BTC在2025年可能達到110,000- $ 444,000。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is holding above $100,000, leading Fidelity Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, to say that the crypto asset could be reclaiming its position as a leading store-of-value contender.

比特幣（BTC）的價格持有超過100,000美元，全球宏觀宏觀總監Jurrien Timmer，他說該加密貨幣資產可能是作為價值商店的領先商店競爭者的地位。

According to his recent analysis, the Sharpe ratios of Bitcoin and gold are converging, suggesting that the two assets are increasingly comparable in risk-adjusted returns. The Sharpe ratio measures the rate of return an investment provides for the risk taken. It compares an investment's performance to a risk-free benchmark relative to its volatility.

根據他最近的分析，比特幣和黃金的夏普比率正在融合，這表明這兩個資產在風險調整後的收益中越來越可比。 Sharpe比率衡量投資規定所採取的風險的回報率。它將投資的績效與無風險基準相對於其波動性進行了比較。

The chart below, tracking weekly data between 2018 and May 2025, shows Bitcoin’s returns (1x) catching up to gold’s (4x), with gold at $22.48 and Bitcoin at $15.95 in relative performance terms.

下圖在2018年至2025年5月之間跟踪每週的數據，顯示了比特幣的回報（1倍）趕上了Gold's（4倍），Gold為22.48美元，比特幣的相對性能方面為15.95美元。

From an allocation standpoint, a 4:1 gold-to-Bitcoin ratio is recommended for a store-of-value hedge, highlighting an intriguing observation.

從分配的角度來看，建議對樹籬存儲4：1金與幣比率，突出了一個有趣的觀察。

“After the 2018 crypto winter, it took Bitcoin about 4 years to fully recover to new all-time highs (ATHs) in May 2022. In contrast, after the 2020 corona crisis, gold took less than a year to reach new highs. This suggests that Bitcoin might be a more "risky" asset class than gold, at least in terms of the time it takes to recover from a steep market downturn.”

“在2018年加密貨幣冬季之後，比特幣花了大約4年的時間才能完全恢復到2022年5月的新歷史高峰（ATHS）。相反，在2020年的Corona危機之後，黃金花了不到一年的時間才能達到新的高點。這表明比特幣可能是比金色更“風險”的資產級別，至少在時間上可以從陡峭的市場中恢復過來。

While Bitcoin’s SoV credential improves above $100,000, Ecoinometrics, a Bitcoin-focused macroeconomic newsletter, pointed out that it was not smooth sailing in Q1 2025.

儘管比特幣的SoV憑據提高了100,000美元，但以比特幣為重點的宏觀經濟通訊EcoinoMetrics指出，第1季度2025年第1季度航行並不順利。

In 2024, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded traded-funds (ETFs) saw a staggering $35 billion net inflows, purchasing 500,000 BTC and driving a 120% return. However, 2025 started on a different note. The first four months saw Bitcoin ETF flows drop to less than a third compared to 2024, and gold ETFs attracted more capital.

2024年，比特幣現貨交易所交易的交易基金（ETFS）的淨流入率驚人，購買了350億美元，購買了500,000 BTC，並帶來了120％的回報。但是，2025年開始了不同的音符。與2024年相比，前四個月的比特幣ETF流量下降到三分之一不到三分之一，而黃金ETF吸引了更多的資本。

The newsletter noted that this shift could be attributed to Q1 uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, trade policy, and the US economy. Ecoinometrics stated, “With more good news than bad news in Q1 2025, and a 30.33% price gain for gold in 2025 compared to a 3.84% gain for Bitcoin, it’s no surprise that investors preferred the stability of gold during this period of economic unease.”

該新聞通訊指出，這一轉變可能歸因於圍繞美聯儲政策，貿易政策和美國經濟的第一季度不確定性。生態計量學指出：“在2025年第1季度的壞消息比壞消息多，2025年黃金的價格增長30.33％，而比特幣的增長率為3.84％，這並不奇怪，在這一經濟不安時期，投資者更喜歡黃金的穩定性。”

According to the analysis, Bitcoin performed better as a “high-beta growth asset,” thriving in rising liquidity and fiat debasement environments.

根據分析，比特幣作為“高β增長資產”的表現更好，在不斷上升的流動性和法定貶值環境中蓬勃發展。

However, recent developments signal a shift: US trade policy clarity, a softer Federal Reserve stance, and easing financial conditions have spurred steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

但是，最近的事態發展標誌著轉變：美國貿易政策的清晰度，柔和的美聯儲立場以及寬鬆的財務狀況促使比特幣ETF穩定流入。

A higher Sharpe ratio is a positive metric for Bitcoin, significantly increasing the probability of reaching new all-time highs above $110,000 in May. According to Bitcoin Suisse, a crypto custody firm, BTC’s high Sharpe ratio has allowed the asset to thrive in risk-on and risk-off environments since the US presidential election.

較高的Sharpe比率是比特幣的正值度量，可顯著增加5月在110,000美元以上的新歷史高點的可能性。根據加密貨幣公司比特幣瑞士的說法，自美國總統大選以來，BTC的高夏普比率使該資產在風險和冒險環境中蓬勃發展。

With more than 88% of its supply in profit, BTC currently behaves as a high-conviction bet, where the likelihood of an “acceleration phase” moving forward.

BTC擁有超過88％的利潤供應量，目前表現為一個高罪分鐘，在這種情況下，“加速階段”前進的可能性。

“We can say that Bitcoin has a decent chance of reaching $250,000 or more in 2025,” reads a recent report by crypto analysts at Ecoinometrics. The analysis focuses on Bitcoin’s interplay with gold and utilizes a gold-based forecast to project the potential revaluation of non-sovereign hard assets.

“我們可以說，比特幣在2025年有很大的機會達到25萬美元或更多的機會，” Crypto分析師在EcoinoMetrics的最新報告中寫道。該分析側重於比特幣與黃金的相互作用，並利用基於黃金的預測來預測非主管硬資產的潛在重估。

If Bitcoin’s network value, measured in gold, follows a power curve, and gold maintains its current value, analysts suggest it could hit $444,000 in 2025. However, a more conservative estimate by Bitcoin analyst Apsk32 points to a "reasonable" target of $220,000 for the year.

如果比特幣的網絡價值以黃金測量，遵循功率曲線，並且黃金保持其當前價值，則分析師認為它可能在2025年達到444,000美元。但是，比特幣分析師APSK32點更保守的估算值為“合理”目標，為220,000美元。