比特幣對產量上升的反應

即將到來的日本銀行會議將於6月16日至17日舉行，可能會激發全球股票市場和加密貨幣交易。比特幣交易員尤其處於邊緣。

The coming Bank of Japan meeting on June 16–17 could shake up both stock markets and crypto trading around the world. Bitcoin traders especially are on edge. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warned that a shift by the BOJ might send risk assets much higher.

即將到來的日本銀行會議將於6月16日至17日舉行，可能會激發全球股票市場和加密貨幣交易。比特幣交易員尤其處於邊緣。 BITMEX的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes警告說，BoJ的轉變可能會使風險資產更高。

BOJ Meeting On June 16–17

BOJ會議於6月16日至17日

According to Hayes, if the BOJ holds off on reducing its bond purchases and instead brings back some quantitative easing, markets will get a big push. Right now, the bank is doing what’s called quantitative tightening. On July 31, 2024, it cut government bond buys by 400 billion yen a quarter. That started in August 2024. The BOJ plans to check how that’s working at this month’s meeting.

根據海斯的說法，如果Boj堅持減少其債券的購買，而是帶回一些量化的寬鬆，那麼市場將會大大推動。目前，銀行正在做所謂的定量收緊。 2024年7月31日，它將政府債券削減了每季度的4000億日元。這始於2024年8月。棚屋計劃在本月的會議上檢查它的運作方式。

Shifts In Bond Buying Plans

債券購買計劃的轉變

Based on reports from unnamed sources, some BOJ officials want to slow down the cuts even more. They’re talking about dropping bond purchases by 200 billion yen per quarter starting in April 2027. That would mean less money leaving the market. It’s a sign they’re ready to be more cautious if economic data weakens at home.

根據來自未透露姓名的消息來源的報告，一些BOJ官員希望進一步減慢削減速度。他們正在談論從2027年4月開始，每季度將購買債券的購買量減少2000億日元。這意味著離開市場的錢將減少。如果經濟數據在家中削弱，他們準備更加謹慎，這是一個跡象。

I don’t think ordinary Japanese plebes would agree. If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting risk assets are going to fly.

我認為普通的日本普萊布斯不會同意。如果BOJ延遲了QT，並且在6月的會議風險資產中重新啟動了QE，則將飛行。

LFG $BTC pic.twitter.com/ET08M6tWeS

lfg $ btc pic.twitter.com/et08m6twes

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) June 10, 2025

- 亞瑟·海斯（@cryptohayes）2025年6月10日

Bitcoin Reacts To Rising Yields

比特幣對產量上升的反應

Bitcoin hit a high of $112,000 on May 22. That came just two days after Japan’s 30-year bond yield jumped to 3.185% on May 20, 2025. Traders saw that spike in long-term yields as a warning sign about Japan’s debt load. Some big investors then looked to Bitcoin as a place free from government default risk.

比特幣在5月22日達到了112,000美元的高價。這是在2025年5月20日日本30年債券收益率上升到3.185％的兩天后。交易者認為，長期收益率是關於日本債務負擔的警告信號。然後，一些大投資者將比特幣視為擺脫政府違約風險的地方。

Future Risks And Hopes

未來的風險和希望

André Dragosch of Bitwise Europe said that if yields keep rising, Bitcoin could head toward $200,000. He pointed out that Bitcoin has no central authority that could fail. But other risks loom. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other big players are all on different paths. Any BOJ move would travel through global currency markets and could face pushback from regulators.

Bitwise Europe的AndréDragosch表示，如果收益率不斷上升，比特幣將朝著200,000美元邁進。他指出，比特幣沒有可能失敗的中央權威。但是其他風險迫在眉睫。美國美聯儲，歐洲中央銀行和其他大型參與者都處於不同的道路上。任何棚屋的舉動都將貫穿全球貨幣市場，並可能面臨監管機構的倒退。

What Comes Next

接下來會發生什麼

Market watchers will focus on the wording in the BOJ statement. They’ll watch for phrases like “flexible approach” or hints that the bank could act again if needed. They’ll also look for any shift in how much the BOJ will let longer-term yields move. If the bank gives itself more room on the yield curve, that could count as a small form of easing.

市場觀察者將專注於BoJ聲明中的措辭。他們會注意諸如“靈活方法”或暗示銀行在需要時可以再次採取行動的短語。他們還將尋找棚屋將使長期收益率移動的任何轉變。如果銀行在收益曲線上給自己更多的空間，那可以算作一種較小的緩解形式。

For traders in Tokyo, New York and beyond, that language will matter. A surprise tilt back to easing could pour fresh yen into global markets. That might send Bitcoin and other risk assets flying, at least for a while. But if the BOJ only eases its pace of tightening, the boost could be modest. Either way, all eyes are on June 16–17.

對於東京，紐約及其他地區的交易者，該語言將很重要。一個驚喜的傾向可以緩解，這可能會傾向於全球市場。至少一段時間以來，這可能會使比特幣和其他風險資產飛行。但是，如果棚屋只放鬆了其收緊的速度，則提升可能是適中的。無論哪種方式，所有人的目光都在6月16日至17日。

Featured image from Twenty20, chart from TradingView

來自Twenty20的特色圖像，TradingView的圖表