比特币对产量上升的反应

即将到来的日本银行会议将于6月16日至17日举行，可能会激发全球股票市场和加密货币交易。比特币交易员尤其处于边缘。

The coming Bank of Japan meeting on June 16–17 could shake up both stock markets and crypto trading around the world. Bitcoin traders especially are on edge. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warned that a shift by the BOJ might send risk assets much higher.

即将到来的日本银行会议将于6月16日至17日举行，可能会激发全球股票市场和加密货币交易。比特币交易员尤其处于边缘。 BITMEX的联合创始人Arthur Hayes警告说，BoJ的转变可能会使风险资产更高。

BOJ Meeting On June 16–17

BOJ会议于6月16日至17日

According to Hayes, if the BOJ holds off on reducing its bond purchases and instead brings back some quantitative easing, markets will get a big push. Right now, the bank is doing what’s called quantitative tightening. On July 31, 2024, it cut government bond buys by 400 billion yen a quarter. That started in August 2024. The BOJ plans to check how that’s working at this month’s meeting.

根据海斯的说法，如果Boj坚持减少其债券的购买，而是带回一些量化的宽松，那么市场将会大大推动。目前，银行正在做所谓的定量收紧。 2024年7月31日，它将政府债券削减了每季度的4000亿日元。这始于2024年8月。棚屋计划在本月的会议上检查它的运作方式。

Shifts In Bond Buying Plans

债券购买计划的转变

Based on reports from unnamed sources, some BOJ officials want to slow down the cuts even more. They’re talking about dropping bond purchases by 200 billion yen per quarter starting in April 2027. That would mean less money leaving the market. It’s a sign they’re ready to be more cautious if economic data weakens at home.

根据来自未透露姓名的消息来源的报告，一些BOJ官员希望进一步减慢削减速度。他们正在谈论从2027年4月开始，每季度将购买债券的购买量减少2000亿日元。这意味着离开市场的钱将减少。如果经济数据在家中削弱，他们准备更加谨慎，这是一个迹象。

I don’t think ordinary Japanese plebes would agree. If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting risk assets are going to fly.

我认为普通的日本普莱布斯不会同意。如果BOJ延迟了QT，并且在6月的会议风险资产中重新启动了QE，则将飞行。

LFG $BTC pic.twitter.com/ET08M6tWeS

lfg $ btc pic.twitter.com/et08m6twes

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) June 10, 2025

- 亚瑟·海斯（@cryptohayes）2025年6月10日

Bitcoin Reacts To Rising Yields

比特币对产量上升的反应

Bitcoin hit a high of $112,000 on May 22. That came just two days after Japan’s 30-year bond yield jumped to 3.185% on May 20, 2025. Traders saw that spike in long-term yields as a warning sign about Japan’s debt load. Some big investors then looked to Bitcoin as a place free from government default risk.

比特币在5月22日达到了112,000美元的高价。这是在2025年5月20日日本30年债券收益率上升到3.185％的两天后。交易者认为，长期收益率是关于日本债务负担的警告信号。然后，一些大投资者将比特币视为摆脱政府违约风险的地方。

Future Risks And Hopes

未来的风险和希望

André Dragosch of Bitwise Europe said that if yields keep rising, Bitcoin could head toward $200,000. He pointed out that Bitcoin has no central authority that could fail. But other risks loom. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other big players are all on different paths. Any BOJ move would travel through global currency markets and could face pushback from regulators.

Bitwise Europe的AndréDragosch表示，如果收益率不断上升，比特币将朝着200,000美元迈进。他指出，比特币没有可能失败的中央权威。但是其他风险迫在眉睫。美国美联储，欧洲中央银行和其他大型参与者都处于不同的道路上。任何棚屋的举动都将贯穿全球货币市场，并可能面临监管机构的倒退。

What Comes Next

接下来会发生什么

Market watchers will focus on the wording in the BOJ statement. They’ll watch for phrases like “flexible approach” or hints that the bank could act again if needed. They’ll also look for any shift in how much the BOJ will let longer-term yields move. If the bank gives itself more room on the yield curve, that could count as a small form of easing.

市场观察者将专注于BoJ声明中的措辞。他们会注意诸如“灵活方法”或暗示银行在需要时可以再次采取行动的短语。他们还将寻找棚屋将使长期收益率移动的任何转变。如果银行在收益曲线上给自己更多的空间，那可以算作一种较小的缓解形式。

For traders in Tokyo, New York and beyond, that language will matter. A surprise tilt back to easing could pour fresh yen into global markets. That might send Bitcoin and other risk assets flying, at least for a while. But if the BOJ only eases its pace of tightening, the boost could be modest. Either way, all eyes are on June 16–17.

对于东京，纽约及其他地区的交易者，该语言将很重要。一个惊喜的倾向可以缓解，这可能会倾向于全球市场。至少一段时间以来，这可能会使比特币和其他风险资产飞行。但是，如果棚屋只放松了其收紧的速度，则提升可能是适中的。无论哪种方式，所有人的目光都在6月16日至17日。

Featured image from Twenty20, chart from TradingView

来自Twenty20的特色图像，TradingView的图表