比特幣的價格失速：解碼ETF流入神秘

儘管ETF大量流入，但比特幣的價格仍被卡住。長期持有人出售，OTC交易或替代幣輪換嗎？讓我們潛入！

Bitcoin's Price Stall: Decoding the ETF Inflows Mystery

比特幣的價格失速：解碼ETF流入神秘

Bitcoin's been a head-scratcher lately. Massive ETF inflows, treasury buys galore, yet the price is stubbornly range-bound. What gives? Let's unravel this crypto conundrum.

比特幣最近是一名抓手。大量的ETF流入，財政部購買了盛大，但價格固定在範圍內。什麼給？讓我們解開這個加密難題。

The Curious Case of the Stalled Surge

停滯的激增的奇怪案例

Q2 saw nearly $11 billion flow into Bitcoin ETFs. Companies like Metaplanet and Strategy are snatching up BTC like it's going out of style. Last week alone, ETFs absorbed 12.6% of the *annual* new Bitcoin supply. So, why isn't the price skyrocketing to the moon?

第二季度的ETF流入了近110億美元。像Metaplanet和策略這樣的公司正在搶奪BTC，就像過時的時尚一樣。僅上週，ETF就吸收了 *年度 *新比特幣供應的12.6％。那麼，為什麼價格不會飆升到月球呢？

Long-Term Holders: The Unsung Sellers?

長期持有人：無名賣家？

Charles Edwards of Capriole Investment points a finger at long-term holders (LTH). He suggests they've been quietly offloading their positions since the ETF launch in January. Data seems to back this up, with 6-month holders absorbing supply while those holding for over two years are selling.

Capriole Investment的Charles Edwards手指指向長期持有人（LTH）。他建議自1月份ETF發布以來，他們一直在悄悄地卸下自己的職位。數據似乎支持了這一點，有6個月的持有人吸收了供應，而持有超過兩年的持有人正在銷售。

The OTC Enigma

OTC謎

Another theory involves Over-the-Counter (OTC) desks. TXMC Trades notes that large buys might be happening OTC, bypassing traditional exchanges and order books. This would mute the impact on the spot price.

另一個理論涉及非處方（OTC）桌。 TXMC交易指出，大型購買可能正在發生OTC，繞過傳統的交流和訂單書。這將使對現貨價格的影響靜音。

Even with OTC activity, supply on these desks and reserves on centralized exchanges have dropped 20-30% since the start of the year. This *could* set the stage for a future price squeeze.

即使有OTC活動，這些辦公桌上的供應和集中式交易所的儲量也下降了20-30％。這個 *可以 *為未來的價格擠壓奠定基礎。

Whale Watching and Retail Retreat

鯨魚觀看和零售務虛會

Adding to the complexity, Willy Woo highlighted that whales with 10K-100K BTC (acquired at ridiculously low prices) have been selling since 2017. The number of whales holding over 1K BTC dipped in late May, coinciding with a price peak.

威利·沃（Willy Woo）除了複雜性外，還強調說，自2017年以來，擁有10k-100k BTC的鯨魚（以荒謬的價格購買）一直在銷售。 5月下旬，持有超過1K BTC的鯨魚數量與價格峰值相吻合。

Retail interest also took a 10% hit during this period, further dampening breakout prospects.

在此期間，零售利息也受到了10％的打擊，進一步削弱了突破前景。

Altcoin Rotation and Macro Winds

山寨幣旋轉和大風

Recent reports highlight a potential shift. As Bitcoin surged past $108,000, driven by institutional inflows and positive macro news, analysts warned that altcoins might face a pullback as capital rotates back into Bitcoin. This “altcoin bleed,” as some call it, could be contributing to the relative underperformance of BTC despite the bullish ETF data.

最近的報告突出了潛在的轉變。由於在機構流入和積極的宏觀新聞的驅動下，比特幣飆升了108,000美元，分析師警告說，當資本轉移到比特幣中時，Altcoins可能會面臨回調。儘管有看漲的ETF數據，但某些人稱這種“山寨幣流血”可能會導致BTC的相對錶現不佳。

The Bullish Counterpoint

看漲對立

Despite the stall, some remain wildly optimistic. VC Chamath Palihapitiya still projects Bitcoin hitting $500K by October, citing historical post-halving patterns. Also, Vanadi Coffee, a Spanish cafe chain, has pivoted to crypto and now holds 54 BTC, and Bitcoin recently surged above $108,000 driven by institutional support.

儘管有失速，但有些人仍然非常樂觀。 VC Chamath palihapitiya仍在10月份投影，比特幣以5萬美元的速度售價為50萬美元。另外，西班牙咖啡館連鎖店的瓦納迪咖啡（Vanadi Coffee）已經旋轉了加密貨幣，現在擁有54 BTC，而比特幣最近受到機構支持驅動的108,000美元飆升。

So, What's the Verdict?

那麼，判決是什麼？

The Bitcoin price stall is likely a combination of factors: long-term holder profit-taking, OTC deals masking true demand, altcoin rotation, and a bit of retail apathy. It's a complex picture, and predicting the future is always a gamble. But one thing's for sure: the Bitcoin story is far from over. The market sentiment remains strong as investors keep an eye on Bitcoin’s $108,500 level resistance, a successful close above that could open the door for a fresh all-time high.

比特幣價格攤位可能是多種因素的組合：長期持有人獲利，OTC交易掩蓋了真正的需求，Altcoin旋轉和一些零售冷漠。這是一張復雜的圖片，預測未來總是一場賭博。但是可以肯定的是：比特幣的故事還遠遠沒有結束。由於投資者一直關注比特幣的108,500級別的阻力，因此市場情緒仍然很強，這是一個成功的關閉，可以為新鮮的歷史最高點打開大門。

Keep your eyes peeled, and your wallets... well, that's up to you!

保持眼睛剝皮，錢包...好吧，這取決於您！