比特币的价格失速：解码ETF流入神秘

尽管ETF大量流入，但比特币的价格仍被卡住。长期持有人出售，OTC交易或替代币轮换吗？让我们潜入！

Bitcoin's Price Stall: Decoding the ETF Inflows Mystery

比特币的价格失速：解码ETF流入神秘

Bitcoin's been a head-scratcher lately. Massive ETF inflows, treasury buys galore, yet the price is stubbornly range-bound. What gives? Let's unravel this crypto conundrum.

比特币最近是一名抓手。大量的ETF流入，财政部购买了盛大，但价格固定在范围内。什么给？让我们解开这个加密难题。

The Curious Case of the Stalled Surge

停滞的激增的奇怪案例

Q2 saw nearly $11 billion flow into Bitcoin ETFs. Companies like Metaplanet and Strategy are snatching up BTC like it's going out of style. Last week alone, ETFs absorbed 12.6% of the *annual* new Bitcoin supply. So, why isn't the price skyrocketing to the moon?

第二季度的ETF流入了近110亿美元。像Metaplanet和策略这样的公司正在抢夺BTC，就像过时的时尚一样。仅上周，ETF就吸收了 *年度 *新比特币供应的12.6％。那么，为什么价格不会飙升到月球呢？

Long-Term Holders: The Unsung Sellers?

长期持有人：无名卖家？

Charles Edwards of Capriole Investment points a finger at long-term holders (LTH). He suggests they've been quietly offloading their positions since the ETF launch in January. Data seems to back this up, with 6-month holders absorbing supply while those holding for over two years are selling.

Capriole Investment的Charles Edwards手指指向长期持有人（LTH）。他建议自1月份ETF发布以来，他们一直在悄悄地卸下自己的职位。数据似乎支持了这一点，有6个月的持有人吸收了供应，而持有超过两年的持有人正在销售。

The OTC Enigma

OTC谜

Another theory involves Over-the-Counter (OTC) desks. TXMC Trades notes that large buys might be happening OTC, bypassing traditional exchanges and order books. This would mute the impact on the spot price.

另一个理论涉及非处方（OTC）桌。 TXMC交易指出，大型购买可能正在发生OTC，绕过传统的交流和订单书。这将使对现货价格的影响静音。

Even with OTC activity, supply on these desks and reserves on centralized exchanges have dropped 20-30% since the start of the year. This *could* set the stage for a future price squeeze.

即使有OTC活动，这些办公桌上的供应和集中式交易所的储量也下降了20-30％。这个 *可以 *为未来的价格挤压奠定基础。

Whale Watching and Retail Retreat

鲸鱼观看和零售务虚会

Adding to the complexity, Willy Woo highlighted that whales with 10K-100K BTC (acquired at ridiculously low prices) have been selling since 2017. The number of whales holding over 1K BTC dipped in late May, coinciding with a price peak.

威利·沃（Willy Woo）除了复杂性外，还强调说，自2017年以来，拥有10k-100k BTC的鲸鱼（以荒谬的价格购买）一直在销售。5月下旬，持有超过1K BTC的鲸鱼数量与价格峰值相吻合。

Retail interest also took a 10% hit during this period, further dampening breakout prospects.

在此期间，零售利息也受到了10％的打击，进一步削弱了突破前景。

Altcoin Rotation and Macro Winds

山寨币旋转和大风

Recent reports highlight a potential shift. As Bitcoin surged past $108,000, driven by institutional inflows and positive macro news, analysts warned that altcoins might face a pullback as capital rotates back into Bitcoin. This “altcoin bleed,” as some call it, could be contributing to the relative underperformance of BTC despite the bullish ETF data.

最近的报告突出了潜在的转变。由于在机构流入和积极的宏观新闻的驱动下，比特币飙升了108,000美元，分析师警告说，当资本转移到比特币中时，Altcoins可能会面临回调。尽管有看涨的ETF数据，但某些人称这种“山寨币流血”可能会导致BTC的相对表现不佳。

The Bullish Counterpoint

看涨对立

Despite the stall, some remain wildly optimistic. VC Chamath Palihapitiya still projects Bitcoin hitting $500K by October, citing historical post-halving patterns. Also, Vanadi Coffee, a Spanish cafe chain, has pivoted to crypto and now holds 54 BTC, and Bitcoin recently surged above $108,000 driven by institutional support.

尽管有失速，但有些人仍然非常乐观。 VC Chamath palihapitiya仍在10月份投影，比特币以5万美元的速度售价为50万美元。另外，西班牙咖啡馆连锁店的瓦纳迪咖啡（Vanadi Coffee）已经旋转了加密货币，现在拥有54 BTC，而比特币最近受到机构支持驱动的108,000美元飙升。

So, What's the Verdict?

那么，判决是什么？

The Bitcoin price stall is likely a combination of factors: long-term holder profit-taking, OTC deals masking true demand, altcoin rotation, and a bit of retail apathy. It's a complex picture, and predicting the future is always a gamble. But one thing's for sure: the Bitcoin story is far from over. The market sentiment remains strong as investors keep an eye on Bitcoin’s $108,500 level resistance, a successful close above that could open the door for a fresh all-time high.

比特币价格摊位可能是多种因素的组合：长期持有人获利，OTC交易掩盖了真正的需求，Altcoin旋转和一些零售冷漠。这是一张复杂的图片，预测未来总是一场赌博。但是可以肯定的是：比特币的故事还远远没有结束。由于投资者一直关注比特币的108,500级别的阻力，因此市场情绪仍然很强，这是一个成功的关闭，可以为新鲜的历史最高点打开大门。

Keep your eyes peeled, and your wallets... well, that's up to you!

保持眼睛剥皮，钱包...好吧，这取决于您！