比特幣的價格下跌了94,000美元，Altcoins效仿

這一市場趨勢的背後，鏈上數據是否發布了牛市信號？通過分析關鍵指標，例如交易量，用戶行為和貨幣分配

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has once again crossed the $94,000 mark, closely followed by gains in altcoins. Amidst this wave of market trends, has the on-chain data released any bull market signals? Analyzing key indicators such as transaction volume, user behavior, and currency distribution can help decipher the market trend from its underlying logic.

比特幣（BTC）的價格再次超過了94,000美元，緊隨其後的是Altcoins的收益。在這一波市場趨勢中，鏈上數據是否發布了任何牛市信號？分析諸如交易量，用戶行為和貨幣分佈之類的關鍵指標可以幫助破譯市場趨勢的基礎邏輯。

According to bitsCrunch data, over the past 24 hours, the entire network generated a total transaction volume of $39.9 billion. There were over 7.2 million transactions, with 3.03 million independent addresses participating and 13,800 tokens involved. Since July 2023, transaction volume has steadily increased from 2M to 10M, especially after April 2024, showing a rapid growth rate as market liquidity has significantly improved. Although the number of on-chain transactions decreased sharply in March this year, it has generally displayed a short-term upward trend.

根據Bortcrunch數據，在過去的24小時內，整個網絡的總交易量為399億美元。有超過720萬筆交易，有303萬獨立的地址參與，涉及13,800個令牌。自2023年7月以來，交易量已從2M穩步增加到10m，尤其是在2024年4月之後，顯示出快速增長，因為市場流動性大大提高。儘管今年3月的鏈上交易數量急劇減少，但通常顯示出短期的上升趨勢。

The trader trend chart showcases the fluctuations in the number of on-chain traders since 2023. As per bitsCrunch data, in October 2023, the trader count fell below 2M but quickly recovered to 8M in the second half of 2024, remaining at a relatively high point by January 2025. This change closely follows the “recovery-outbreak” stage of the market cycle. It’s noteworthy that the growth in the trader numbers is not linear, with each quarter showing a slight pullback (like May and August). The figure also demonstrates the periodic adjustment of institutional and retail investor sentiment due to explosive news. However, the current daily active trader count of 3.03M is still low, only one-third of the peak period, warranting further observation.

交易者趨勢圖顯示了自2023年以來的鏈上交易者數量的波動。根據Bitscrunch數據，2023年10月，交易者的數量下降到2000萬以下，但在2024年下半年迅速恢復到8M，保持了相對較高的高點，到了2025年1月，這一變化非常緊密地遵循“恢復爆發”階段。值得注意的是，交易者人數的增長不是線性的，每個季度都會有輕微的回調（例如五月和八月）。該數字還表明，由於爆炸性新聞，機構和散戶投資者情緒的定期調整。但是，當前的每日活躍交易者數量為303萬，仍然很低，僅占峰值時期的三分之一，需要進一步觀察。

Among these traders, bitsCrunch further classifies wallet addresses based on their different token holdings. Currently, there are 1,052 “Mega Whale” wallets holding assets over $100 million. While the number of retail wallets (Shrimp, <$10,000) is overwhelmingly large at around 214M, their collective amount is significantly smaller than that of giant whales. This “28 split” is a common sight in the financial markets – giant whales usually enter first to absorb funds, followed by smaller and medium funds to push up asset prices. It’s worth noting that the number of wallets at the “Dolphin” (1M-10M) and “Fish” (10K-100K) tiers also provides crucial support for market liquidity.

在這些交易者中，Bortcrunch進一步根據其不同的代幣持有的錢包地址進行了分類。目前，有1,052個“大鯨”錢包持有資產超過1億美元。雖然零售錢包的數量（蝦，<10,000美元）在2.14億左右的絕大部分大量，但它們的集體數量明顯小於巨型鯨魚。這種“ 28分”在金融市場上是一個普遍的景象 - 巨型鯨魚通常首先輸入以吸收資金，然後是較小和中型資金以推高資產價格。值得注意的是，“海豚”（1m-10m）和“ Fish”（10K-100K）層的錢包數量也為市場流動性提供了重要的支持。

As evident from the above figure, Polygon on-chain transactions remain relatively stable, with daily transactions hovering around 4K. Observing Ethereum on-chain transactions with bitsCrunch, we can see that at the beginning of 2025, Ethereum on-chain transactions decreased sharply, whereas the price reflection lagged. With the launch of more Layer1s, the reduced activity in the Ethereum ecosystem may reshape the market structure.

從上圖可以明顯看出，多邊形交易保持相對穩定，每日交易徘徊在4K左右。觀察到以太坊的鏈交易，並可以看到2025年初，以太坊的鏈交易急劇下降，而價格反射滯後。隨著更多層的發射，以太坊生態系統的活動減少可能會重塑市場結構。

Although Bitcoin has returned to the 90,000s and many altcoins have shown impressive gains, on-chain transaction volume has not yet returned to a relatively active level in the current market. With the parallel development of news policies and regulations in 2025, the structure of on-chain traders has become more diversified, with whales and retail investors actively participating. Despite new hot spots and tracks, investors should pay attention to marginal changes in data and remain rational in a frenzied market. It’s crucial to track the actions of whales to avoid any short-term selling pressure that may arise from the high concentration of capital distribution.

儘管比特幣已經恢復到90,000，並且許多Altcoins顯示出令人印象深刻的收益，但鏈交易量尚未在當前市場恢復到相對活躍的水平。隨著2025年新聞政策和法規的平行製定，鏈上交易者的結構變得更加多樣化，鯨魚和散戶投資者積極參與。儘管有新的熱點和軌道，但投資者仍應關注數據的邊際變化，並在瘋狂的市場中保持合理。追踪鯨魚的行為至關重要，以避免由於資本分配的高度濃度可能引起的任何短期銷售壓力。