Behind this wave of market trends, has the on-chain data released a bull market signal? By analyzing key indicators such as transaction volume, user behavior, and currency distribution
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has once again crossed the $94,000 mark, closely followed by gains in altcoins. Amidst this wave of market trends, has the on-chain data released any bull market signals? Analyzing key indicators such as transaction volume, user behavior, and currency distribution can help decipher the market trend from its underlying logic.
According to bitsCrunch data, over the past 24 hours, the entire network generated a total transaction volume of $39.9 billion. There were over 7.2 million transactions, with 3.03 million independent addresses participating and 13,800 tokens involved. Since July 2023, transaction volume has steadily increased from 2M to 10M, especially after April 2024, showing a rapid growth rate as market liquidity has significantly improved. Although the number of on-chain transactions decreased sharply in March this year, it has generally displayed a short-term upward trend.
The trader trend chart showcases the fluctuations in the number of on-chain traders since 2023. As per bitsCrunch data, in October 2023, the trader count fell below 2M but quickly recovered to 8M in the second half of 2024, remaining at a relatively high point by January 2025. This change closely follows the “recovery-outbreak” stage of the market cycle. It’s noteworthy that the growth in the trader numbers is not linear, with each quarter showing a slight pullback (like May and August). The figure also demonstrates the periodic adjustment of institutional and retail investor sentiment due to explosive news. However, the current daily active trader count of 3.03M is still low, only one-third of the peak period, warranting further observation.
Among these traders, bitsCrunch further classifies wallet addresses based on their different token holdings. Currently, there are 1,052 “Mega Whale” wallets holding assets over $100 million. While the number of retail wallets (Shrimp, <$10,000) is overwhelmingly large at around 214M, their collective amount is significantly smaller than that of giant whales. This “28 split” is a common sight in the financial markets – giant whales usually enter first to absorb funds, followed by smaller and medium funds to push up asset prices. It’s worth noting that the number of wallets at the “Dolphin” (1M-10M) and “Fish” (10K-100K) tiers also provides crucial support for market liquidity.
As evident from the above figure, Polygon on-chain transactions remain relatively stable, with daily transactions hovering around 4K. Observing Ethereum on-chain transactions with bitsCrunch, we can see that at the beginning of 2025, Ethereum on-chain transactions decreased sharply, whereas the price reflection lagged. With the launch of more Layer1s, the reduced activity in the Ethereum ecosystem may reshape the market structure.
Although Bitcoin has returned to the 90,000s and many altcoins have shown impressive gains, on-chain transaction volume has not yet returned to a relatively active level in the current market. With the parallel development of news policies and regulations in 2025, the structure of on-chain traders has become more diversified, with whales and retail investors actively participating. Despite new hot spots and tracks, investors should pay attention to marginal changes in data and remain rational in a frenzied market. It’s crucial to track the actions of whales to avoid any short-term selling pressure that may arise from the high concentration of capital distribution.
