比特幣接近其歷史最高水平，達到$ 104,900

在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布美國 - 中國貿易談判取得的重大進展之後，比特幣在周末飆升至104,900美元，佔其歷史最高高點的4％之內。

Bitcoin price surged to $104,900 over the weekend, coming within 4% of its all-time high, after Donald Trump announced major progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布美國 - 中國貿易談判取得的重大進展之後，週末比特幣價格飆升至104,900美元，佔其歷史最高最高水平的4％之內。

His upbeat post about a “total reset” with China sparked optimism across markets, boosting investor confidence in BTC.

他關於與中國的“全部重置”的樂觀帖子激發了整個市場的樂觀情緒，從而增強了投資者對BTC的信心。

What Happened: While some analysts signaled a bear market for Bitcoin after its recent V-shaped recovery from $82,000 in late March to over $104,000 today, PlanB sees it differently.

發生了什麼：雖然一些分析師在最近的V形回收率從3月下旬的82,000美元到今天的104,000美元以上，這表明了比特幣的熊市市場，但Planb認為這是不同的。

The crypto analyst believes the recent price action is part of a longer, flatter bull cycle that is just getting started.

這位加密分析師認為，最近的價格動作是剛剛開始的更長，更平坦的公牛循環的一部分。

In his latest video analysis, PlanB refers to his on-chain market cycle model, which showed no signs of a typical "cycle bottom / end-of-cycle distribution phase" back in March. Instead, the data pointed to continued bullish momentum.

Planb在他的最新視頻分析中指的是他的鏈上市場週期模型，該模型沒有顯示出3月份的典型“週期底部 /循環分配階段”的跡象。相反，數據指出了繼續看漲的勢頭。

"It’s still in accumulation, which means the bull market is not over yet. We’ll likely see Bitcoin move above its previous all-time high of $110,000 in the coming weeks or months, with several new highs to follow."

“它仍在積累中，這意味著牛市還沒有結束。我們可能會看到比特幣在未來幾週或幾個月中超過其以前的110,000美元的高度，並隨之而來的是幾個新高點。”

Also, his stock-to-flow (S2F) model predicts that as Bitcoin becomes more scarce, its price rises. Historically, after each halving, a red dot appears on the chart, often signaling the start of a strong bull.

此外，他的股票流量（S2F）模型預測，隨著比特幣變得越來越稀缺，其價格上漲。從歷史上看，每次減半後，圖表上都會出現一個紅點，通常標誌著強牛的開始。

Bitcoin Price Analysis:

比特幣價格分析：

Bitcoin’s RSI is currently at 66, and PlanB predicts it will "easily go above 80 for several months, just like we saw in past bull markets."

比特幣的RSI目前為66歲，Planb預測，它“將在幾個月內輕鬆超過80，就像我們在過去的牛市中看到的那樣。”

"I'm not saying it will stay above 80 for 12 months, but we might see it fluctuate between 70 and 80 over a period of eight to ten months."

“我並不是說它將停留在80個月以上，但我們可能會在八到十個月的時間內看到它在70至80之間波動。”

This aligns with the stock-to-flow model, which suggests Bitcoin could reach $500,000 per coin by the end of the current halving cycle.

這與股票對流量模型保持一致，這表明比特幣在當前減半週期結束時每枚硬幣可能達到500,000美元。

The 200-week moving average has moved up slightly from $46K to $47K, signaling increased market confidence and possibly the start of the "FOMO phase."

200週的移動平均線從4.6萬美元上升到47,000美元，這表明市場信心增加，可能是“ FOMO階段”的開始。

Additionally, realized prices are trending upwards, with short-term realized prices at $92K and the two-year at $77K, indicating most Bitcoin holders are in profit, further supporting a strong market.

此外，實現的價格正在上升，短期實現的價格為92,000美元，為期兩年的價格為7.7萬美元，這表明大多數比特幣持有人都在獲利，進一步支持強勁的市場。

BTC Price Prediction:

BTC價格預測：

Moreover, analysts’ predictions suggest that with just a few high-momentum months, Bitcoin could reach $400K, placing it within striking distance of the stock-to-flow average.

此外，分析師的預測表明，只有幾個月的幾個月，比特幣可以達到40萬美元，將其放在股票到流量平均水平的距離之內。

PlanB concludes, "These models can be wrong, but they are often useful, and all the indicators are now pointing towards a potentially historic 2025 for Bitcoin."

Planb得出結論：“這些模型可能是錯誤的，但是它們通常很有用，所有指標現在都指向比特幣的歷史2025年。”